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FAB 1. Final Bucs’ 53-Man Roster Prediction

I came out with PewterReport.com’s first Bucs’ 53-Man Roster Prediction prior to the start of Tampa Bay’s training camp. Now that training camp has concluded with a Friday morning practice at Raymond James Stadium where the Bucs simulated a game, let’s readjust our guesses with this final 53-Man Roster Prediction that includes several changes.

The Bucs and all NFL teams will have to pare down their 80-man training camp rosters to 53 players by 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 5.

QUARTERBACKS – 3

QB Tom Brady
QB Blaine Gabbert
QB Ryan Griffin

Bucs QBs Tom Brady and Blaine Gabbert – Photo by: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ANALYSIS: The Buccaneers should keep three quarterbacks this year due to COVID-19 concerns. If Brady and Gabbert, who has been anointed the backup by Arians due to his experience in the system, somehow test positive for COVID-19 and can’t play, Griffin could step in as an emergency quarterback. The Bucs kept two QBs last year – starter Jameis Winston and Griffin – with Gabbert going on injured reserve due to a preseason shoulder injury. Brady has looked incredibly sharp and in firm command of Arians’ offense during training camp. He’s received the vast majority of reps and has quickly established chemistry and rapport with his targets, while Gabbert has also looked impressive and improved from last year with the rest of the reps. Look for undrafted rookie Reid Sinnett to end up on the practice squad.

RUNNING BACKS – 4

RB Ronald Jones II
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Dare Ogunbowale
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn

Bucs RB LeSean McCoy –
Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: Jones enters the 2020 season as the unquestioned starter in the backfield, and he’s looked good running the ball in training camp. Jones has bulked up to 225 pounds and it shows as he is busting through arm tackles to break off big runs in practice. Where Jones needs to turn the corner is in the passing game. He’s made strides in pass protection and with his hands, but needs more consistency catching the ball. McCoy brings experience as a runner and receiver and can help Brady and the Bucs offense on third down. He’s outspoken and has provided good leadership and mentoring to the young stable of running backs. Ogunbowale has shined in camp as a runner, receiver and pass protector and will likely split third down duties with McCoy, while continuing to star on special teams. Vaughn has not been overly impressive as a runner or a receiver in practice, and it looks like he’s a bit uncomfortable due to some missed time at the start of camp due to being on the COVID-19 list. He’ll make the team due to his third-round draft status. T.J. Logan would have made the 53-man roster if not for his season-ending knee injury, and rookie Raymond Calais is likely destined for the practice squad.

WIDE RECEIVERS – 5

WR Mike Evans
WR Chris Godwin
WR Scotty Miller
WR Justin Watson
WR Jaydon Mickens

Bucs WR Jaydon Mickens – Photo by: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ANALYSIS: The Bucs will only keep five receivers with the top four spots being settled heading into camp due to their experience. Tampa Bay is expected to run more two tight end sets due to the acquisition of Rob Gronkowski and that means only having two receivers on the field in 12 personnel packages. Evans and Godwin are 1,000-yard Pro Bowlers, and Gronkowski will make up for the loss of production from Breshad Perriman’s departure, as he will essentially be the third target for Brady in Tampa Bay’s passing game hierarchy. Evans has slimmed down and looks faster this year. He’s dazzled in training camp and has a tremendous rapport with Brady, who loves throwing him jump balls down the field. Godwin has missed some time in camp and has looked good, but not like he did last year. I suspect there is an unreported injury he’s dealing with. Time will tell. Miller and Watson, who can both play in the slot and out wide, have made tremendous progress this year and have become reliable receivers. Miller’s speed gives him the slight edge to be the No. 3 receiver, but the 6-foot-3, 215-pound Watson, who stars on special teams, will see more playing time. Both came to camp in great shape and motivated to play with Brady. Mickens has been consistent and has good run-after-catch ability. He’ll likely handle punt return duties, and possibly kick return duties, too.

TIGHT ENDS – 4

TE Rob Gronkowski
TE O.J. Howard
TE Cameron Brate
TE Antony Auclair

Bucs TE Antony Auclair – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: The 31-year old Gronkowski, a five-time Pro Bowler, has been as good as advertised and looks refreshed after a year off from football. His infectious personality keeps practices light, and he’s spent a great deal of time mentoring Howard and the team’s young tight ends when he’s not making plays for Brady on the field. Howard has been the offensive star in training camp for the Bucs. He looks focused and ready to have the breakout year everyone has been waiting for. Howard, who will start alongside Gronkowski in 12 personnel groupings, has really emerged as a red zone threat for Brady and has really come a long way in terms of separating from defenders and catching the ball consistently. Brate looks healthy for the first time in a long time and is moving fluidly on the field as a result. He still has good hands and comes up in the clutch. The addition of Gronkowski and Howard’s improvement will cut down on his playing time, but Brate is a great safety net at the position in case of injury to either starter. Auclair has had a great camp and would be a solid No. 3 tight end on most teams. Despite being TE4 in Tampa Bay, he’ll see plenty of playing time as an in-line blocker and on special teams. Tanner Hudson and Codey McElroy are good players, but Auclair has raised his level of play this August.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN – 10

LT Donovan Smith
LG Ali Marpet
C Ryan Jensen
RG Alex Cappa
RT Tristan Wirfs

OT Joel Haeg
OT Josh Wells
C A.Q. Shipley
G John Molchon

C Anthony Fabiano

Bucs OL A.Q. Shipley – Photo by: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ANALYSIS: A new rule states that NFL teams must dress eight offensive linemen on game days this year. The Bucs kept nine O-linemen on their 53-man roster last year and I have them keeping 10 this year with the recent addition of Shipley, a veteran who has played for Arians in Arizona. Shipley can play either center or guard. Smith is in the best shape of his life and had a really good camp. He’s also essentially entering a contract year, as 2020 is his last year of guaranteed money despite being under contract next season. Marpet and Jensen are the best two linemen and could get some Pro Bowl consideration this season. Cappa has worked hard to remake his body and actually looks like a guard now instead of a former college left tackle. He’s got a bigger, stronger lower body that helps him anchor better in pass protection, which was the weakest part of his game last year. Wirfs, the Bucs’ first-round pick, has proven to be a quick learner and will likely get the nod to start in Week 1. He’s had more ups than downs in camp despite missing the offseason mini-camps and OTAs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Wells, who has put on 20 pounds of mass this year and looks stronger, has outperformed Haeg, the newcomer. But due to depth issues, both reserve tackles figure to make the 53-man roster. Haeg also has the ability to play inside at guard, while Wells is better suited to play left or right tackle. It will come down to Molchon or Aaron Stinnie for the final guard spot, and the guess here is that the team likes the rookie’s upside. Fabiano has played well as the backup center and will serve as Jensen’s backup.

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN – 6

DT Ndamukong Suh
NT Vita Vea
DE Will Gholston
NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches
DT Khalil Davis
DE Patrick O’Connor

Bucs NT Rakeem Nunez-Roches – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: The Bucs kept six defensive linemen last year and will do the same again in Todd Bowles’ 3-4 scheme. Suh, Vea and Gholston are the starters up front and helped key the Bucs’ No. 1-ranked rushing defense last year. The 33-year old Suh could be playing his last year in Tampa Bay and he should see reduced number of snaps. The team is counting on Vea to emerge as a star at nose tackle. He’s in great shape, but has been limited in camp due to a casted club on his right hand due to offseason surgery, but had the cast removed this week. Gholston had a strong camp and is still a force against the run on early downs. Nunez-Roches added size and is up to 320 pounds. He’s drawn praise from the coaches as the most improved player on defense and has had a great camp. Nunez-Roches will see increased playing time at nose tackle and defensive tackle due to Beau Allen’s departure. Davis, the team’s sixth-round pick, has flashed in camp with his initial quickness and athleticism. He’s shown to be good against the run and the pass. O’Connor has a high motor and contributes on special teams to edge out Ledbetter for the reserve defensive end spot.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS – 4

OLB Shaquil Barrett
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul
OLB Anthony Nelson
OLB Quinton Bell

Bucs OLB Quinton Bell – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay will keep four outside linebackers but only two – Barrett, the team’s franchise player, and Pierre-Paul – have recorded sacks in the NFL. Those two combined to notch 28 sacks last season with Barrett leading the league with a career-high 19.5 sacks, which broke the Bucs’ single-season record owned by Warren Sapp from 2000. Pierre-Paul is a veteran leader and can rush from the outside or the inside in certain packages like he did a year ago. Nelson, last year’s fourth-round pick, replaces Carl Nassib as the No. 3 outside linebacker and has hit the weight room hard. He’s not the physical force that Nassib was, but he is more fluid and less rigid as a pass rusher. Still, Nelson is a work in progress with limited production from his rookie season. The athletic Bell, who began his college career as a wide receiver, is an athletic specimen at 6-foot-4, 253 pounds with 4.48 speed and a 41.5-inch vertical. He’s still learning how to play on defense after playing on the edge during his senior season, but he’s making strides. Bell, whose speed also helps on special teams, edges out Kahzin Daniels and a pair of undrafted free agents, Michael Divinity and Cam Gill, for the final outside linebacker spot on the depth chart.

INSIDE LINEBACKERS – 5

ILB Lavonte David
ILB Devin White
ILB Kevin Minter

ILB Jack Cichy
ILB Chapelle Russell

Bucs ILB Chapelle Russell – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: David, a long-time team captain, is still playing at an elite level and made a seamless transition to Bowles’ 3-4 defense in 2019. David and White, who emerged as a play-maker as a rookie with four fumble recoveries, including two for defensive touchdowns, are perhaps the fastest inside linebacker duo in the league. White, last year’s first-round pick, is on his way to stardom. The Bucs expect David and White, who combined for 3.5 sacks in 2020, to become more active and productive as blitzers in 2020. Minter, a seasoned veteran, provides veteran leadership and is capable of playing either the MIKE or the MO inside linebacker position, as well as being a core special teams player. Cichy, who is also an important special teams contributor, knows the Bucs defense inside and out and is effective when healthy. Russell, the team’s seventh-round pick, is athletic and a quick learner. He’s impressed on defense and has the athleticism and grit that the Bucs are looking for on special teams to edge Noah Dawkins, who is fast and quite athletic himself.

DEFENSIVE BACKS – 9

CB Carlton Davis
CB Sean Murphy-Bunting
CB Jamel Dean
SS Jordan Whitehead
FS Andrew Adams
SS Antoine Winfield, Jr.
FS Mike Edwards
CB Ryan Smith
CB Parnell Motley

Bucs CB Parnell Motley – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay will keep nine defensive backs this year and has three young, promising starters at cornerback in Davis, Murphy-Bunting and Dean. That trio combined for 44 pass breakups, but only six picks – led by Murphy-Bunting’s three. It is imperative for the Bucs’ cornerbacks to intercept more passes, as the trio had just six INTs between them in 2019. More interceptions are also needed from the safeties after the group recorded a combined two picks last year. Whitehead and Adams started most of 2019, and could likely be the starters in New Orleans in the season opener due to their experience. But Tampa Bay has been impressed with Edwards, who was a third-round pick last year, and Winfield, Jr., this year’s second-rounder. By the end of the year those two should be starters due to their play-making ability and ball skills. Edwards and Winfield bring the ability to play center field, in the box or in the slot in man coverage. Smith, is one of Tampa Bay’s top special teamers and provides experience and depth at cornerback. Motley, an undrafted free agent, has been very impressive in camp with multiple pass breakups and interceptions, and gets the nod over Mazzi Wilkins and Herb Miller for the final cornerback spot.

SPECIALISTS – 3

K Elliott Fry
P Bradley Pinion
LS Zach Triner

Bucs K Elliott Fry – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANALYSIS: In one of the more surprising developments of training camp, Fry beats out Matt Gay for the kicking duties – although this kicking competition will go on for the next week in practice before the team decides which kicker to keep. Fry has been slightly more consistent than Gay in the practices the media has been able to see, although Gay has the stronger leg. Don’t be surprised to see the loser of this kicking duel wind up on the practice squad. Pinion provides value to the Bucs in several ways as the Bucs’ holder and kickoff specialist, in addition to being the team’s punter. Tampa Bay is very happy with the job he did last year, and Pinion had a great camp this summer. Triner returns as the Bucs’ long snapper and was solid in that role in his first year in Tampa Bay.

Now that we’ve predicted the Bucs’ 53-man roster, let’s take a guess as to what Tampa Bay’s 16-player practice squad might look like.