FAB 2. Bucs Will Climb The NFC South Ladder In 2020

The closest the Buccaneers have come to winning the NFC South since the team last won the division in 2007 was in 2016 when Tampa Bay finished 9-7 in Dirk Koetter’s first year as head coach. That second place finish wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs as the Bucs fell one victory short of the postseason.

Even in 2010 when the Raheem Morris-led Bucs finished 10-6 Tampa Bay didn’t win the division or make the playoffs. In fact, Tampa Bay finished third in the NFC South behind Atlanta (13-3) and New Orleans (11-5) that year.

Falcons LB Deion Jones – Photo by: Getty Images

Last year, the Bucs had a golden opportunity to claim at least second place in the division and even finish with a winning record, but failed to win down the stretch. Tampa Bay lost back-to-back home games against Houston, 23-20, and Atlanta, 28-22 in overtime, to finish 7-9 instead of 8-8 or 9-7 in Bruce Arians’ first year. With the Falcons’ win over the Bucs in Week 17, both teams finished 7-9 but Atlanta had a better record within the division, which edged out Tampa Bay for second place.

The Bucs’ addition of legendary quarterback Tom Brady and the team’s two-win improvement last year has Tampa Bay’s arrow pointing up, while the Falcons have disappointed with a 7-9 record for two years in a row. Carolina was 11-5 in 2017, but slipped to 7-9 the next year and fell to 5-11 in 2019, which prompted the team to fire long-time head coach Ron Rivera before the end of the season.

After a disastrous 2-6 start, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn made some coaching changes that helped Atlanta finish 6-2 down the stretch, but the team may not be able to generate much momentum heading into 2020 despite that late season rally. That’s because Atlanta had very little salary cap room at the start of the season and had to let several starters, including running back Devonta Freeman and cornerback Desmond Trufant, go in order to create some cap space. Free agents like linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and tight end Austin Hooper hit the market and the Falcons were unable to compete financially to retain them.

Here is a look at what Atlanta has done in free agency thus far.

Key Atlanta Roster Departures
OLB Vic Beasley
RB Devonta Freeman
TE Austin Hooper
TE Luke Stocker
OL Ty Sambrailo
CB Desmond Trufant
LB De’Vondre Campbell
G Wes Schweitzer
DE Adrian Clayborn
DT Ra’Shede Hageman

Key Atlanta Roster Additions
RB Todd Gurley
DE Dante Fowler
TE Hayden Hurst

The Falcons traded second- and fifth-round picks to Baltimore for Hurst, a backup tight end and former first-round pick, and the Ravens’ fourth-rounder. Hurst is still on his rookie deal and comes cheaper than Hooper.

Former Falcons RB Devonta Freeman – Photo by: Mark Lomoglio/PR

The release of Freeman made Brian Hill the current starting running back in Atlanta for a minute until the team signed Todd Gurley and his arthritic knee in free agency on Friday morning. Gurley ran five times for just 16 yards and a pair of scores against the Bucs last year when Tampa Bay beat Los Angeles.

Atlanta also let Clayborn hit the market and opted not to re-sign Beasley, a former first-round pick. While they upgraded their pass rush with the addition of Fowler, the Falcons’ secondary took a big hit with the release of Trufant, who was the team’s best cover corner.

Unless the team can lure a running back like Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon to Atlanta and the Falcons have an absolutely fantastic draft, it’s hard to imagine this team finishing higher than third in the division in 2020.

And it’s hard to imagine Carolina getting out of the NFC South cellar this year. Take a look at what new head coach Matt Rhule and the Panthers have done thus far this offseason.

Key Carolina Roster Departures 
MLB Luke Kuechly
TE Greg Olsen
QB Cam Newton
DT Gerald McCoy
DT Vernon Butler
DE Mario Addison
CB James Bradberry
G Trai Turner
S Eric Reid
DT Dontari Poe

Key Carolina Roster Additions
QB Teddy Bridgewater
DE Stephen Weatherly
OT Russell Okung
G John Miller

The Panther defense has been decimated at all levels this offseason. It started off with the sudden retirement announcement of Kuechly, the Pro Bowl middle linebacker and heart and soul of Carolina’s defense. His departure, which came on the heels of Thomas Davis’ departure after the 2018 season leaves a huge leadership void on defense.

Carolina’s defensive line saw pass rushers Mario Addison, Gerald McCoy and Vernon Butler leave in free agency, in addition to run-stuffer Dontari Poe. Only Kawann Short and Brian Burns remain upfront.

Bucs LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Mark Lomoglio/PR

The secondary lost two starters in Bradberry, the team’s best cover corner, and Reid, a starting safety. As of right now, the starting cornerbacks are Corn Elder and Donte Jackson, with T.J. Green replacing Reid at strong safety. The Panthers’ secondary took a big hit.

Carolina’s offense swapped out the 30-year old, oft-injured Newton for Bridgewater, who worked with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady in New Orleans in 2018. Bridgewater has plenty of weapons to work with, but there have been some changes upfront where Okung was acquired via a trade that included Turner, a starting guard, in the swap with Los Angeles. Miller was signed as a replacement at guard.

Carolina will also need to find a replacement at tight end for the venerable Olsen, who used to give Bucs linebackers fits. Brady’s new offense will need to light up the scoreboard like it did at LSU last season because the Panthers defense is a shell of its former self.

Barring any major injuries, there is no reason why the Buccaneers shouldn’t at least claim second place in the NFC South and contend for a wild card playoff spot in 2020. Having an extra team make the playoffs in the expanded format only helps Tampa Bay’s cause this year thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Falcons QB Matt Ryan and Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Getty Images

But with Brady under center, the Bucs aren’t shooting for second place in the division this year. Signing the greatest quarterback of all time at age 42 means the Bucs are clearly in “win now” mode.

Tampa Bay is clearly gunning for the NFC South title against a still-formidable New Orleans Saints squad.