FAB 2. 5 Draft Mistakes Licht Must Avoid

The Buccaneers are armed with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft thanks to yet another 5-11 finish. In order to avoid picking in the Top 10 yet again in 2020, Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht needs another really good draft class like he produced in 2015 and 2017 when the team drafted several key contributors and found multiple starters.

In order to do that, here are some draft mistakes that Licht has made in the past that he needs to avoid when this year’s draft begins on April 25.

No More Risky Picks

Licht is now paired up with Mr. No Risk It, No Biscuit himself in Bruce Arians, and that could be a dangerous thing during the NFL Draft. Licht has made some of his own risky picks in the past without Arians around, beginning in 2014 by drafting tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who had some character issues, and then trading up in the second round for kicker Roberto Aguayo, who turned out to be a bust. That will go down as one of the worst draft moves in NFL history.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston & GM Jason Licht – Photo courtesy of the Buccaneers

Some would say that even drafting Jameis Winston was quite a risk given the fact that his character concerns became valid when Winston was suspended for three games last year, but the team needed a quarterback in 2015 and some – including myself – believe that Winston will turn out to be better than Marcus Mariota, who went No. 2 overall to Tennessee. But that will only happen if Winston can shake the turnovers that have plagued his game dating back to his second year at Florida State.

Licht also traded up in the third round in 2017 to draft linebacker Kendell Beckwith, who was coming off a torn ACL. That risk proved to be worth it as Beckwith recovered fast enough to turn in a very good rookie season, but as fate would have it, the LSU product suffered a severe ankle fracture last offseason that caused him to miss the entire 2018 campaign and has put his NFL career in jeopardy.

Of course that’s just bad luck, and not Licht’s fault. Yet Licht and the Bucs need to win now, so it’s probably wise to just draft players that can actually pass a physical, attend rookie mini-camp and play right away and avoid players that have had major injuries in the past.

Licht also made a few risky picks last year, when he over-drafted cornerback M.J. Stewart, a player that was regarded as a fourth-round pick by most teams due to his lack of speed and athleticism, in the second round, and then drafted an undersized strong safety in Jordan Whitehead in the fourth round, who split time at running back at Pitt. The fourth round might have been a little high for Whitehead.

Don’t Go Into The Draft With A Theme

Last year’s offseason theme for Licht seemed like “add physical, tough guys.” It started in free agency with the signing of defensive tackles Beau Allen and Mitch Unrein and defensive end Vinny Curry, who combined for 2.5 sacks.

Then it continued in the draft with the selection of cornerbacks M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis, offensive lineman Alex Cappa, safety Jordan Whitehead and linebacker Jack Cichy. Stewart and Cappa struggled mightily, Davis and Whitehead barely made any plays and Cichy looked average before getting hurt.

Toughness and physicality are good traits for any NFL player to have, but let’s not forget about athleticism and speed. Stewart looked overwhelmed playing cornerback in the NFL, especially in the slot where the previous coaching staff had him woefully miscast. Stewart is just an average athlete with average pre-draft testing. Don’t believe me? Here’s the proof.

Cappa didn’t look quick enough to play inside at guard where the action happens much faster, and might be better off as a right tackle candidate this year where he will have some space – and time – to operate against defensive linemen.

Ironically, second-round pick Ronald Jones II was billed as a speed back, but didn’t show it last year. And he didn’t show much toughness, either.

Licht needs to draft tough, physical athletes this year – preferably fast ones. More importantly, he needs to treat each pick, each position and each player differently and not draft to fit a theme.

Don’t Avoid Drafting Playmakers

There are some players in every draft class that just scream “productivity.” Atlanta defensive back Damontae Kazee led the NFL with seven interceptions last year and had 10 pass breakups despite not being a starter until the Falcons lost both of their starting safeties early in the year. Kazee is a playmaker.

Falcons DB Damontae Kazee – Photo by: Getty Images

I wasn’t surprised to see his degree of success once he cracked the starting lineup as Kazee was an absolute ballhawk at San Diego State, recording 17 interceptions, including 15 over his final two seasons, along with 29 pass breakups and six forced fumbles as a four-year starter. The 5-foot-11, 180-pound Kazee was undersized and ran a 4.54, which caused him to slide to the fifth round of the 2017 draft. What a steal for Atlanta.

College stats don’t always mean everything when it comes to NFL Draft prospects, especially if they come from a particular system where players routinely flourish with big numbers, such as quarterbacks from Texas Tech. Sure, Patrick Mahomes is a bona fide NFL stud, but he only ranks third in Red Raiders passing yards and touchdowns. Mahomes trails Graham Harrell, Kliff Kingsbury and B.J. Symons in several Texas Tech passing records, and Harrell, Kingsbury and Symons simply weren’t NFL-caliber players and didn’t make it in the league because they were products of the system rather than being really talented like Mahomes is.

While past performance does not always translate into future production, especially with the increased competition in the NFL, what draft prospects do in college is important. If a team wants a 1,000-yard running back, it needs to find one that at least did that in college. If a team wants a deep threat wide receiver, it needs to find one that averaged 20 yards per catch in college. If a team wants a double-digit sacker, it wouldn’t hurt to find a guy that got 10-plus sacks in college.

Because if a player didn’t do that at a lower level of competition, it doesn’t bode well for that player to all of a sudden be expected to perform at an even higher level in the NFL. It happens, but it’s usually not the norm.

There’s a reason why none of Tampa Bay’s rookie defensive backs didn’t record an interception last year. They’re not playmakers. They didn’t record many interceptions in college and simply aren’t prolific at it.

Bucs CB M.J. Stewart – Photo by: Getty Images

Stewart had six career picks in four years at North Carolina, but none over his final two seasons. Davis had four INTs in three seasons, but only one over his last two years at Auburn. Whitehead had three interceptions in three years at Pittsburgh, but never more than one in a season.

Bucs legend Ronde Barber was a three-year starter at Virginia from 1994-96 before being drafted by Tampa Bay in the third round in 1997. During his Cavaliers career he recorded 15 interceptions over three years, including eight as a sophomore. Barber was prolific at picking off passes. The only reason why Barber wasn’t a first-round pick was because he was 5-foot-10, 180 pounds and couldn’t run a sub-4.4 in the 40-yard dash, but he was a playmaker nonetheless.

Licht needs to draft some playmakers this year because the Bucs defense doesn’t have enough of them. If Tampa Bay wants a slot cornerback, Licht should look no further than James Madison’s Jimmy Moreland, who had 18 interceptions as a four-year starter, including four last season, and eight as a sophomore. Moreland also had 45 pass breakups, six pick-sixes in college and showed well at both the East-West Shrine Game and the Senior Bowl.

Moreland is 5-foot-11, 175 pounds – built like Kazee – and ran a 4.48 at his pro day. Because he has a slight frame and played against a lower level of competition, Moreland is considered a Day 3 prospect. If I’m Licht, I’d draft this playmaker in the fourth round.

Don’t Whiff On A Running Back

There were 10 running backs drafted in the first four rounds last year, including Tampa Bay’s Ronald Jones in the second round. Six rookie running backs, including Denver’s undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay, rushed for 600 yards or more. Jones, who rushed for 44 yards and one touchdown on 23 carries (1.9 avg.), was obviously not one of them.

There were an additional nine running backs from the 2017 draft class, including Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, James Conner, Aaron Jones and Chris Carson, that also rushed for 600 yards or more last year.

Boise State RB Jeremy McNichols – Photo courtesy of Boise State University

When it comes to drafting running backs, Licht is currently 0-for-3, dating back to his first draft in 2014 when he used a third-round pick on Charles Sims, a tentative runner that turned out to be nothing more than a third-down back in Tampa Bay. The oft-injured Sims was waived injured last offseason and didn’t play last year, is currently unsigned and his NFL career appears over at age 27.

There was a slew of running backs in the 2017 draft class that have turned out to be very productive players, but Licht and former head coach Dirk Koetter whiffed, waiting until the fifth round to select Jeremy McNichols, who played at Boise State, Koetter’s alma mater. McNichols was an immediate bust and was released following training camp.

Add in Jones, who looked like a bust last year, and Licht will need to draft another running back this year to bolster the position. He and the Bucs can’t afford to go 0-for-4.

Don’t Just Draft Backups On Day 3

I’ll hand it to Licht and director of college scouting Mike Biehl. They’ve done a great job finding some real undrafted free agent gems in wide receiver Adam Humphries, tight end Cameron Brate, running back Peyton Barber and tight end Antony Auclair. Those players have outperformed a lot of the Day 3 selections Licht has made since taking over as general manager in 2014.

The Bucs currently have seven Day 3 picks on their roster in cornerback Ryan Smith (round 4, 2016), offensive tackle Caleb Benenoch (round 5, 2016), linebacker Devante Bond (round 6, 2016), Stevie Tu’ikolovatu (Round 7, 2017), Whitehead (round 4, 2018), wide receiver Justin Watson (round 5, 2018) and linebacker Jack Cichy (round 6, 2018). Statistically, that’s not bad at all.

But the problem is that there isn’t one of these players that looks like he has the ability to turn into a real starting-caliber player. In fact, Licht has had 16 Day 3 selections and only one – middle linebacker Kwon Alexander (round 4, 2015) – was a real bona fide starter. You can add two more in Kevin Pamphile (round 6, 2014), who started at left guard in 2017, and Benenoch, who started at right guard last year, but both were awful.

Falcons RB Devonta Freeman – Photo by: Mark Lomoglio/PR

Compare that to Atlanta, which found starters in running back Devonta Freeman (round 4, 2014), safety Ricardo Allen (round 5, 2014), nose tackle Grady Jarrett (round 5, 2015), linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (round 4, 2016), guard Wes Schweitzer (round 6, 2016) and Kazee (round 5, 2017). That’s six starters out of 20 Day 3 picks since 2014, and a much better hit ratio than Licht has in Tampa Bay.

Yes, Licht gets credit for finding some real players in the undrafted free agent ranks, but those don’t count towards Licht’s draft class success rate. Simply put, if Licht had drafted the likes of Brate, Humphries and Barber in the sixth or seventh round his reputation would be better when it comes to the draft. He needs to avoid drafting for depth and special teams on Day 3 and draft a player or two that can become a legitimate NFL starter.

If Licht can avoid those five pitfalls, Tampa Bay should be able to get a few players that can make a difference in 2019 and turn the Bucs’ ship around.