FAB 3. Is Burns A First-Round Option For Bucs?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking at a host of defensive players that carry first-round grades in the 2019 NFL Draft. Of the 14 players that have been identified by PewterReport.com as Top 30 visit prospects, 12 of them are on the defensive side of the ball, and nine of them play in the front seven.

Alabama DT Quinnen Williams
Kentucky OLB Josh Allen
LSU ILB Devin White
Michigan ILB Devin Bush
Houston DT Ed Oliver
Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat
Michigan DL Rashan Gary
Clemson DT Dexter Lawrence
Oklahoma OT Cody Ford
Mississippi State SS Johnathan Abram
Louisiana Tech DE Jaylon Ferguson
Maryland SS Darnell Savage
Auburn CB Jamel Dean
Utah State RB Darwin Thompson

One of the top draft prospects has yet to visit One Buccaneer Place, or at least that visit – or planned visit – hasn’t been revealed to the media yet.

Florida State OLB Brian Burns – Photo courtesy of FSU Athletics

I’m talking about Florida State junior edge rusher Brian Burns, who played defensive end for the Seminoles, but would be a weakside linebacker in Todd Bowles’ 3-4 scheme lining up behind Jason Pierre-Paul and competing with Noah Spence.

Burns, a junior entry, had a formal interview with the Buccaneers at the NFL Scouting Combine, so there is interest there, especially after his sensational performance on the field in drills and in the athletic testing in Indianapolis.

The Fort Lauderdale, Fla. native had a time of 7.01 in the three-cone drill, which was the 82nd percentile of edge rushers in this year’s draft class. His wingspan is nearly 84 inches, which puts him in the 95th percentile, and his broad jump was 129 inches, which places Burns in the 97th percentile.

But it was his 4.53 time in the 40-yard dash, which was in the 97th percentile, that really opened some eyes, especially since Burns added 14 pounds in the offseason to weigh in at 249 pounds after playing last year at 235 pounds. The speed, the added size, and his production – 23 sacks, including 10 last year – has NFL teams, including Tampa Bay, excited about his potential at the next level.

Florida State’s Brian Burns (97 Combine Score) ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 249 lbs + 36″ vertical & 10’9″ broad jump.

Burns is 1 of 3 EDGE with a Composite Draft Score above 90 when accounting for production, size and combine measurables.

The Others: Nick Bosa & Montez Sweat pic.twitter.com/NzbMAdeM8z

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 3, 2019

Burns put on a show at the NFL Scouting Combine, and due to his length, has drawn comparisons to former first-round picks Aldon Smith and Leonard Floyd, in addition to his personal favorite, Hall of Famer Jason Taylor. The big question for Tampa Bay and other NFL teams is whether or not he can convert speed to power at the next level. That means, can he rush the passer with power on bull rushes, or is he a one-trick pony with only a speed rush like former Bucs first-rounder, Gaines Adams?

Bears DE Leonard Floyd – Photo by: Mark Lomoglio/PR

The lack of speed to power was the knock on Floyd, and that’s why the Bucs passed on him in the first round, trading down from No. 9 to No. 11 to select cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III while the Bears moved up to Tampa Bay’s previous spot to draft Floyd. Chicago’s Top 10 pick from 2016 has 15.5 sacks in three years in the Windy City, with only 8.5 of those combined coming over the last two years. Floyd checked in at the NFL Scouting Combine at 6-foot-5, 244 pounds and ran a 4.6

Part of the reason why Floyd only had four sacks last year despite 16 starts is his lack of speed-to-power, so those pre-draft concerns were valid. Floyd isn’t the only long, wiry, fast edge rusher to be drafted in the first round that lacked speed-to-power. Cleveland drafted the 6-foot-4, 241-pound Barkevious Mingo in the first round in 2013, and six years later he’s on his fourth team and has just 10 career sacks. Mingo ran a 4.56 at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Miami drafted 6-foot-6, 248-pound Dion Jordan after he ran a 4.54 and parted ways with him after just three sacks in three years. Jordan joined Seattle in 2017 and has 5.5 sacks over the past two years while playing at 284 pounds.

Is Burns another Floyd, Jordan or Mingo, or can he continue to add on more size and strength to become a more powerful player over the next year like Allen did at Kentucky?

Kentucky OLB Josh Allen – Photo by: Getty Images

Burns had a more productive college career than Floyd did, and is a better athlete than Allen. In fact, Burns’ athleticism is on par with that of Sweat, who ran a 4.41 in the 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6, 260 pounds.

While Allen was second in the nation with 17 sacks, Burns racked up the most pressures of any Power-5 defender in the country last year with 69. There is actually a case to be made that suggests that Burns is capable of being every bit the pass rusher that Allen, who is projected to go in the Top 5, will be in the NFL.

Here is a look at Burns’ production at Florida State compared with that of Allen’s career at Kentucky.

Burns’ Florida State Career Defensive Stats
2016: 23 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 1 FF
2017: 48 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 4 PBUs, 3 FFs, 1 FR
2018: 52 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 3 PBUs, 3 FFs, 1 FR

Allen’s Kentucky Career Defensive Stats
2015: 4 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sack, 1 PBU
2016: 62 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 4 FFs
2017: 66 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 3 PBUs, 2 FFs, 1 INT
2018: 88 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 17 sacks, 5 FFs, 4 PBUs, 2 FRs

A closer look at each players’ first three years in college reveals that Burns made more plays behind the line of scrimmage than Allen did with 18 more tackles for loss and 8.5 more sacks.

Burns’ First 3 Years At Florida State
123 tackles, 38.5 tackles for loss, 23 sacks, 7 FFs, 7 PBUs, 2 FRs

Allen’s First 3 Years At Kentucky
132 tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks, 11 FFs, 7 PBUs, 2 FRs, 1 INT

Allen’s additional size and power took his stock from a fringe first-rounder – had he come out last year – to a Top 5 pick in this year’s draft after his 17-sack breakthrough season. Allen came to Kentucky weighing 210 pounds and put on 50 pounds, including nearly 30 pounds prior to his senior year.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility to think that the 249-pound Burns could add another 10 pounds this year and get to 259 pounds, which is what Allen played at least year during his monster senior campaign. Had he stayed at Florida State for his senior season, Burns might have had a 17-sack year too, and thus been a Top 5 pick in 2020.

While Allen rushed with much more power last year with the added size, Burns added an inside spin move to go with his speed rush off the edge. It has yet to be seen how much power Burns has now that he’s added an additional 14 pounds of bulk.

Florida State OLB Brian Burns – Photo courtesy of FSU Athletics

One thing to note about Burns is that he’s only 20, and turns 21 on April 23. He comes with a lot of production, a lot of potential and has a lot of years of football ahead of him. Burns is considered to be a Top 20 pick in this year’s draft, likely being drafted between No. 10-20 in the first round.

The Draft Network’s Jon Ledyard loves Burns and has him as the No. 4 overall talent in this year’s draft class, ranking him high on his list of edge defenders. It’s unlikley that the Bucs would draft Burns with the fifth overall pick, but certainly add him to the list of players that are potential draft prospects should Tampa Bay trade down. Burns has all the makings of being a star pass rusher at the next level – perhaps even better than Allen.