FAB 2. NFL Must Fix Broken Playoff Rules

The NFL has instituted plenty of rules changes over the last two decades. Rules have been modified to protect quarterbacks in the pocket and defenseless receivers over the middle. The extra point has been moved back and essentially turned into a 37-yard field goal attempt after touchdowns.

The league even expanded the playoff format to include an extra wild card team this year, in addition to expanding the practice squad to 16 players, and will begin implementing a 17-game regular season schedule as early as next year.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell – Photo by: USA Today

But there is one major rule that the league has neglected, and it needs to be changed ASAP because it’s going to have an effect on this year’s playoffs.

The NFL has to abolish teams automatically making the playoffs simply for winning their division. The league should make a rule change that declares teams can only make the NFL postseason with at least a .500 record.

There have been 10 teams with 8-8 records that qualified for the playoffs, and I’m okay with that. But the NFL permitting a team with a losing record to make the playoffs is just embarrassing – and wrong.

It doesn’t put the NFL’s best and most deserving teams in the playoffs, which is what the league – and the TV networks who carry the postseason games – want.

In 2014, a 7-8-1 Panthers team won the NFC South and essentially denied a 10-6 Eagles team from making the postseason as a wild card.

In 2010, a 7-9 Seahawks squad won the NFC West and ultimately cost a 10-6 Buccaneers team a wild card playoff spot.

Why are the divisions in the NFL so holy to the league? Why are division winners automatically given home playoff games, even if they don’t have winning records?

That’s wrong.

Don’t look now, but it’s about to happen again in 2020 with the NFC East – or should I say NFC Least? Here are the current standings in all four NFC divisions. Division leaders are marked with an asterisk, and current wild card teams are marked with a plus.

NFC East
*Philadelphia – 3-5-1
NY Giants – 3-7
Washington – 2-7
Dallas – 2-7

NFC West
*Seattle 7-3
+LA Rams – 6-3
+Arizona – 6-4
49ers – 4-6

NFC North
*Green Bay – 7-2
Chicago – 5-4
Detroit – 4-5
Minnesota – 3-5

NFC South
*New Orleans – 7-2
+Tampa Bay – 7-3
Atlanta – 3-6
Carolina – 3-7

Why this matters is because Tampa Bay might find itself in an eerily similar situation as it did in 2010 when the Bucs lost a wild card tiebreaker to a 10-6 Green Bay squad. That wasn’t the problem though, as the Packers went on to win Super Bowl XLV as a No. 6 seed. The problem was that the 7-9 Seahawks, whom the Bucs beat that year, 38-15, didn’t belong in the postseason.

Former Bucs QB Josh Freeman – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

We often look back at the 2010 Bucs as a team made of smoke and mirrors because of four fourth quarter comeback wins against Cleveland, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Arizona – all of which had losing records. But Tampa Bay also lost twice to an Atlanta team by a total of 10 points. That Falcons team went 13-3 that year and won the division, and the Bucs also lost to a 12-4 Baltimore Ravens team by a touchdown. Those are respectable defeats.

The Bucs also suffered bigger losses to two playoff teams in 12-4 Pittsburgh and 11-5 New Orleans during the 2010 season. Tampa Bay’s only bad loss was a costly one – a 23-20 overtime defeat at home on December 19 to a Detroit team that would finish 6-10.

Not only did the 7-9 Seahawks deprive the Bucs of making the postseason that year,
New Orleans, which had an 11-5 record that season, was a wild card team and the No. 5 seed. The Saints had to travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks in the first round of the playoffs, which was a huge disadvantage. New Orleans won four more games against Seattle that year, including a head-to-head meeting, 34-19, in the Big Easy earlier that year, but wound up losing in the first round of the playoffs, 41-36, with the Seahawks’ home-field advantage playing a role.

In 2014, that 7-8-1 Panthers team got the benefit of hosting Bruce Arians’ 11-5 Cardinals team in the first round of the playoffs, and used home-field advantage to win, 27-16. Carolina lost at Seattle the next week, as the Seahawks made it all the way to the Super Bowl where Tom Brady’s Patriots prevailed in an ending for the ages.

“I’ve been through that conversation before, of course the year we were 10-6 [in Arizona in 2013] and didn’t make the playoffs I was pissed,” Arians said. “And then were 11-5 and being on the road. I don’t mind the division winners [having losing records], but I don’t think they should have any home-field advantage. I think the team with the better record should have the home-field advantage, not necessarily the division winner.”

While I’m in favor in not permitting teams with a losing record from making the playoffs, Arians is okay with that, but doesn’t believe teams that have lesser records should host playoff games.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: USA Today

“If you’re going to have divisions, you need to have division winners – otherwise get rid of the divisions,” Arians said. “And then I think scheduling would become crazy. It’s a catch-22. But once you make the playoffs I think you should be re-seeded by your record.

“For example, if everything stood still right now, we would go play the Eagles, who are 3-5-1. I’m not for that. I think the record should determine home-field advantage.”

It’s bad enough that some wild card teams have a better record than some of the division champions that host them in the playoffs, but in my opinion, no NFL playoff game should feature a team with a losing record – ever.

There is a strong chance that this year’s NFC East division winner winds up with only seven victories, and that means that a better NFC team will be on the outside looking in – even with the additional wild card spot this year. Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for each team.

Philadelphia: at Cleveland, vs. Seattle, at Green Bay, vs. New Orleans, at Arizona, vs. Dallas

NY Giants: at Cincinnati, at Seattle, vs. Arizona, vs. Cleveland, at Baltimore, vs. Dallas

Washington: vs. Cincinnati, at Dallas, at Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, vs. Seattle, vs. Carolina, at Philadelphia

Dallas: at Minnesota, vs. Washington, at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, vs. San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, at NY Giants

If I had to place a bet right now, I would say that the Giants or Eagles are better positioned to win the NFC East just based on better and more consistent QB play, and the fact that New York swept Washington in the division this year. But I would be shocked if either team eclipsed seven wins. That would mean going 4-2 down the stretch, and I just don’t see that happening for either New York or Philadelphia.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

So with a potential seven-win NFC East division winner qualifying for the playoffs – and hosting what could be a 10- or an 11-win team in the first round – some team is going to get left out. Unless the Bucs can somehow surpass the surging Saints, which may be possible with Drew Brees’ broken ribs, they could be one of the wild card teams in jeopardy of either missing out on a playoff berth or be forced to go on the road to face an NFC East opponent with a much lesser record.

NFL divisions aren’t meaningless, but when the division winners have losing records and it costs a 10-win team a shot at the playoffs something is wrong. And if a division winner with a losing record hosts a team that has three or four more victories, something is really wrong.

Fix it, NFL.