FAB 2. Bucs’ Home-field Disadvantage

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished their first season under Bruce Arians with an impressive 5-3 mark on the road.

But when the final record says 7-9 that means the Bucs went 2-6 at home.

Yikes.

Former Bucs head coach Jon Gruden – Photo by: Getty Images

Well, technically Tampa Bay was 2-5 at Raymond James Stadium because one of the team’s “home games” was actually a loss to Carolina in London.

As Bucs fans know, especially season ticket holders, losing at home is nothing new. Tampa Bay hasn’t had a winning record at home since 2008 during Jon Gruden’s last year as head coach.

Gruden’s Bucs won the first six home games that year, racing out to a 9-3 start before going 0-4 down the stretch to finish 9-7 and narrowly missing the playoffs. Gruden’s team went 6-2 at home that year. Bucs fans would kill to have a 6-2 home record these days.

Ironically, the Bucs lost back-to-back home games against San Diego and Oakland to end the 2008 season and Gruden was fired. A 10-6 record would have gotten Tampa Bay in the playoffs that year and likely would have kept Gruden around a little longer.

That would have meant going 7-1 at home, which would have tied the franchise record for best home record in season in 1999.

Fast forward 12 years later and Arians is shocked the Bucs fared far better on the road than they have at home.

“That’s kind of the anomaly I think of this season,” Arians said. “The early losses, the close losses at home, and then going out and winning on the road, which is really hard, especially some of the places we’ve won … It’s a lot to build on, a lot to build on. You hope to go undefeated at home and split on the road to go 12-4 and you’re in great shape. To have a chance to be 5-3 says a lot about our guys.”

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But what does going 2-6 at home say about the Buccaneers?

Arians is surprised at the lack of success at Raymond James Stadium, but we aren’t.

Let’s take a look at Tampa Bay’s home record dating back to 1996 when Tony Dungy took over. Dungy’s team posted a winning record at home in all six seasons with him at the helm – even his first year in which the Bucs finished 6-10.

Bucs’ Home Record/Season Record 1996-2008

Bucs’ Home Record w/Tony Dungy: 34-14
1996: 5-3/6-10
1997: 5-3/10-6
1998: 6-2/8-8
1999: 7-1/11-5
2000: 6-2/10-6
2001: 5-3/9-7

Bucs’ Home Record w/Jon Gruden: 34-22
2002: 6-2/12-4
2003: 3-5/7-9
2004: 4-4/5-11
2005: 6-2/11-5
2006: 3-5/4-12
2007: 6-2/9-7
2008: 6-2/9-7

Former Bucs coach Tony Dungy – Photo by: Getty Images

The Bucs won 34 home games under each head coach with a better win percentage under Dungy (70.8 percent) as opposed to Gruden (60.7 percent), but had a combined home record of 68-36 (65.4 percent) from 1996-2008. The Bucs also hosted playoff games in 1997, 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2007 and won four divisional championships and one Super Bowl during that span.

Now let’s examine Tampa Bay’s home record over the next 11 years – a period in which the Bucs hired five different coaches and really struggled at home.

Bucs’ Home Record/Season Record 2009-19

Bucs’ Home Record w/Raheem Morris: 8-16
2009: 1-7/3-13
2010: 4-4/10-6
2011: 3-5/4-12

Bucs’ Home Record w/Greg Schiano: 6-10
2012: 3-5/7-9
2013: 3-5/4-12

Bucs’ Home Record w/Lovie Smith: 3-13
2014 0-8/2-14
2015: 3-5/6-10

Bucs’ Home Record w/Dirk Koetter: 12-12
2016: 4-4/9-7
2017: 4-4/5-11
2018: 4-4/5-11

Bucs’ Home Record w/Bruce Arians: 2-6
2019: 2-6/7-9

In 2014, Smith had the embarrassing distinction of being the only other Bucs head coach aside from John McKay to go winless at home. That had to sting for season ticket holders. Smith’s 3-13 dismal record at home equals that of Leeman Bennett and Richard Williamson.

Former Bucs head coach Lovie Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The closest the Bucs came to winning at home was a 4-4 record, which was accomplished four times. The first came under Morris in Tampa Bay’s 10-6 season that saw the fall short of making the playoffs by one game. The Bucs actually went 6-2 on the road that year.

Believe it or not, Tampa Bay went 4-4 at Ray-Jay in all three years with Koetter at the helm. The Bucs fared slightly better on the road – 5-3 – in 2016, and finished 9-7, just missing the postseason. But it was a pair of 1-7 records on the road in 2017 and ’18 that ultimately doomed Koetter.

So since the Bucs went 68-36 at home under both Dungy and Gruden, the team has a 31-57 record at Raymond James Stadium, which happens to match Tampa Bay’s 31-57 record on the road during that span. That’s brutal.

The Bucs are caught in a vicious cycle. Because they don’t win at home, there are plenty of empty seats that get filled up by tens of thousands of enemy fans, especially in the lower bowl at Ray-Jay. Those fans generate noise when Tampa Bay’s offense is on the field and are quiet when Tampa Bay’s defense is on the field.

That reduces the stadium noise when Tampa Bay’s defense is on the field and eliminates the Bucs’ home-field advantage, which makes winning at home more difficult. More losses mean more empty seats for Bucs fans, and Ray-Jay won’t be filled until Tampa Bay proves it can win at home, which it hasn’t in nearly a dozen years.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Figuring out how to win at home is one of Arians’ top priorities this offseason. Arians was 27-13 in five years in Arizona and never had a losing record at home.

“Not in a million years [did I imagine a 2-6 home record],” Arians said. “That’s a thing we really have to look at and evaluate. The kicker at home – how do we fix that? He’s struggled here and hasn’t really struggled anywhere else. The quarterback struggles here and he doesn’t struggle other places. When you go 5-3 on the road, you’re supposed playing in the playoffs.”

The Bucs will never return to the playoffs until they first post a winning record at Raymond James Stadium.