FAB 3. Is Hill The Saints’ Eventual Starting QB?

Drew Brees is back in New Orleans to torment the Buccaneers for another season.

If you don’t believe me, know that Brees is 18-10 all-time against Tampa Bay, including a 12-4 record in the past 16 meetings. While Brees missed the first game against the Bucs last year due to a thumb injury, he won the second one, 34-17, in Tampa Bay. In fact, the only other team Brees owns more wins against than Tampa Bay is Atlanta with a 19-10 record.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and Saints QB Drew Brees – Photo by: Getty Images

Brees is the No. 1 Bucs killer in franchise history.

No other quarterback has beaten Tampa Bay more than Brees has. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan comes in second with a 16-8 record, followed by Green Bay legend Brett Favre, who had a 15-8 record in the regular season.

It is likely that the 20th year in the league for the 40-year old Brees, who is the NFL’s all-time leading passer, will be his last. So what will New Orleans do when he retires, as expected, following the 2020 campaign?

Taysom Hill, the Saints’ multi-purpose weapon, figures to be re-signed this offseason as a restricted free agent, and groomed as Brees’ heir apparent. Hill has just three years in the league despite the fact that he will turn 30 in August because he took a Mormon missionary trip while he was enrolled at BYU and spent a few years away from football.

The return of Brees and Hill means that New Orleans is turning away from Teddy Bridgewater, who was 5-0 as a starter last year when Brees was sidelined with a broken thumb. Hill can be signed to a modest, one-year, $5 million tender offer that comes with first-round draft pick compensation.

Recent media reports suggest that Bridgewater could command as much as $30 million per year as a free agent quarterback, but that seems extremely far-fetched as he has just six starts in the last four years following his devastating knee injury that cost him the 2016 season and his starting job in Minnesota. I would think Bridgewater would be fortunate to land a deal worth $20 million per year given his injury history.

Saints head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees – Photo by: Getty Images

So why would Saints head coach Sean Payton prefer Hill, who has completed just 6-of-13 passes (46.2 percent) for 119 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions in his three years in New Orleans, over Bridgewater, who completed 133-of-196 passes (67.9 percent) for 1,384 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions with the Saints last year? Keep in mind that Payton called for Bridgewater to attempt 165 pass attempts while Brees was out compared to only one for Hill.

The answer is because of what Hill has done in the preseason under Payton’s watch. In three preseasons in New Orleans, Hill completed 90-of-128 passes (70.3 percent) for 957 yards with seven touchdowns with three interceptions. Often playing behind second- and third-string offensive linemen in the preseason, Hill was sacked 12 times, and fumbled six times with two becoming turnovers.

It’s interesting to compare Hill’s numbers to Ryan Griffin, who used to be the Saints’ third-string quarterback before Hill’s arrival. Griffin has played in the last four preseasons in Tampa Bay, but missed virtually all of the 2017 preseason due to a shoulder injury, so it’s a pretty fair comparison.

Griffin got more opportunities, especially this past preseason when Blaine Gabbert went out with a shoulder injury. Griffin has completed 158-of-250 passes (63.2 percent) for 1,748 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions, while being sacked 14 times, and fumbling the ball six times with one resulting in a turnover in his four preseasons in Tampa Bay. Nearly half of Griffin’s passing yards – 744 – and his touchdowns – four – came in the 2019 preseason.

Saints QB Taysom Hill – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

What Payton likes about Hill is that when given opportunities to throw from the pocket in the preseason he’s completed 70.2 percent of his passes. That’s seven percentage points higher than Griffin, and Hill also has a slightly better than 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio, whereas Griffin’s is 3:2.

Not only is Hill more accurate and have a stronger arm than Griffin, what has made Hill so appealing to the Saints is his athleticism. It would be foolish to line up Hill at quarterback and make him throw the ball instead of Brees, who is the NFL’s all-time leading passer. So Payton has used his speed and mobility as a running QB from the Wildcat formation, and also as a receiver.

After returning kicks as a rookie in 2017 and averaging 24.9 yards per return, Hill carried the ball 37 times for 196 yards (5.3 avg.) and two touchdowns, while catching three passes for four yards. Last year, Hill saw an increased role on offense, catching 19 passes for 234 yards (12.3 avg.) with six touchdowns, in addition to running 27 times for 156 yards (5.8 avg.) and one score.

The 6-foot-2, 221-pound athletic phenom has also been more of a factor in the playoffs, catching a 2-yard touchdown in a 26-23 loss to the Rams in 2018, and rushing four times for 50 yards, catching two passes for 25 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings, while also throwing a 50-yard touchdown in the 26-20 loss to Minnesota.

Hill earned those offensive snaps as a runner in the preseason, totaling 47 carries for 380 yards (8.9 avg.) and three touchdowns in all three of his preseasons combined. The plan in New Orleans this season would be to incorporate Hill into the game plan more often at the quarterback position to take some of the burden of running the offense off the 40-year old Brees.

Saints QB Taysom Hill – Photo by: Getty Images

Hill hasn’t done much damage against the Buccaneers in his five games versus Tampa Bay over the last three seasons. He’s carried the ball four times for 10 yards, thrown an 18-yard pass, caught one pass for two yards and he’s been sacked once. But Tampa Bay can expect to see more of Hill on offense in 2020 – and perhaps beyond. The team only has to hope that he won’t follow in Brees’ footsteps and become another Buc-killing quarterback in New Orleans.