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FAB 1. No Extension Coming For Barrett

What is the latest on Shaquil Barrett’s negotiations for a contract extension with the Buccaneers? Apparently nothing.

Barrett hasn’t signed his one-year franchise tender of $15.828 million, nor has he and Tampa Bay come anywhere close to a long-term deal. Players have until July 15 at 4:00 p.m. to strike a deal on a contract extension or they will have to play the 2020 season under the one-year, franchise tender amount.

Don’t expect Barrett to avoid signing the franchise tender, though. He’ll sign it next week.

Barrett likely won’t hold out for a long-term contract, especially after making just $5 million last year – $4 million from his base salary and an additional $1 million from reaching performance incentives. That doubled the amount of money Barrett made in his previous four years in Denver where he earned a combined $4.552 million.

So would Barrett want to walk away from making $15.828 million, which is triple what he made last season, in 2020? Doubtful.

If you think the hold-up in contract negotiations between the Bucs and Barrett and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, is related to the fact that Barrett was tagged at the linebacker level of $15.828 million instead of the more lucrative defensive end level of $17.788 million you would probably be correct (wink, nod). Barrett is technically an outside linebacker in Tampa Bay’s 3-4 defense, but it’s a difference of $1.96 million per year between the two designations.

Chicago’s Khalil Mack is the highest-paid edge rusher in the NFL, averaging $23.5 million per year, followed by Dallas’ Demarcus Lawrence at $21 million per season. The 29-year old Mack plays outside linebacker in the Bears’ 3-4 scheme, but played defensive end in Oakland. The 28-year old Lawrence is a defensive end in Dallas.

With the franchise tag designation of $15.828 million, Barrett is currently the 14th-highest paid pass rusher in the NFL. Two other 2020 franchise players rank ahead of Barrett – Baltimore’s Matt Judon at $16.808 million and Jacksonville’s Yannick Ngakoue at $17.788 million.

Ngakoue is a defensive end, which is why he has the higher franchise tender value. Judon won a grievance with the league because although the Ravens run a 3-4 defense and he’s classified as an outside linebacker, Baltimore ran a good deal of four-man rushes on obvious passing downs with Judon playing end.

Guess what? The same thing happened in Tampa Bay with Barrett last year, so don’t be surprised if he and Rosenhaus contemplate that strategy at some point, too – if they haven’t already.

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s unclear how much money Barrett is seeking, as Rosenhaus and the Bucs don’t discuss negotiations publicly. But it’s a safe bet to suggest that Barrett and Rosenhaus believe he’s worth at least $18 million per year, especially coming off a season in which he led the NFL with 19.5 sacks. Barrett has just one stellar season, which came last year ended with his first and only Pro Bowl appearance working against him in negotiations.

Yet he does have 22.5 sacks over the past two seasons, which is tied with Denver Pro Bowler Von Miller, who is the fourth-highest paid edge rusher, averaging $19.08 million per year. Detroit paid Tre Flowers an average of $18 million in 2019 and he only recorded seven sacks last year after notching a career-high 7.5 in 2018 with New England. Barrett is a better pass rusher than Flowers is, which is why $18 million may be the target range.

Asking to be paid in the $19 million range where the more accomplished Miller, Barrett’s former teammate in Denver, resides is probably far-fetched. But Barrett has a solid case to be in the $17 million range at least.

Only Arizona’s Chandler Jones (32 sacks), New Orleans’ Cameron Jordan (27.5 sacks) and Green Bay’s Za’Darius Smith (23 sacks) have more over the last two years than Barrett. Jones and Smith both average $16.5 million per year, while Jordan averages 17.5 million per year.

10 Edge Rushers Making More Than Barrett In 2020

Broncos OLB Von Miller – 22.5 sacks (8 in 2019 – $19.08 million per year
Lions DE Tre Flowers – 14.5 sacks (7 in 2019) – $18 million per year
Jaguars DE Yannick Ngakoue – 17.5 sacks (8 in 2019) – $17.788 million per year
Saints DE Cameron Jordan – 27.5 sacks (15.5 in 2019) – $17.5 million per year
49ers DE Dee Ford 19.5 sacks (6.5 in 2019) – $17 million per year
49ers DE Arik Armstead – 13 sacks (10 in 2019) – $17 million per year
Ravens OLB Matt Judon – 16.5 sacks (9.5 in 2019) – $16.808 million per year
Packers OLB Za’Darius Smith – 23 sacks (13.5 in 2019) – $16.5 million per year
Cardinals OLB Chandler Jones – 32 sacks (19 in 2019) – $16.5 million per year
Chargers OLB Melvin Ingram – 14 sacks (7 in 2019) – $16 million per year

Complicating matters between what the Bucs believe Barrett is worth and what he and Rosenhaus believe he’s worth is the uncertainty of the 2020 NFL season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s no surprise that with the economic uncertainty that exists in present day and the unknown financial implications to NFL teams’ revenue streams and salary cap, which could actually decrease in 2021, that none of the 15 players that have been given the franchise tag have signed a multi-year extension with their respective team.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: May Holt/PR

Kansas City just gave Patrick Mahomes a 10-year, $503 million contract extension, but the Super Bowl-winning quarterback had one more year left on his rookie deal, so he wasn’t a franchise tag player. Yet Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott was given the franchise tag, which he signed, but the Cowboys have dragged their feet on a new deal – likely due to the fact that revenue will fall in 2020, as NFL teams will have far fewer fans in the stands.

While Tampa Bay has yet to reveal its seating configuration for Raymond James Stadium, which holds over 65,000 fans, Baltimore stated this week that only 14,000 fans will be allowed into its stadium, which holds 71,000, for each game this year. For quick, easy illustrative purposes, if the average ticket in Baltimore is $100, not having 57,000 additional fans in the stands equates to a loss of $5.7 million per game and a loss of $45.6 million over an entire regular season with eight home games.

If the average price for a Ravens ticket is $200 then double that loss to $91.2 million. And we haven’t even begun to scratch the surface in lost concessions, merchandise and parking revenue with 57,000 fewer fans attending each home game, too. Not to mention some financial push back from angry in-stadium advertisers that will suggest to teams that they aren’t getting their money’s worth with their marketing message reaching just a fraction of the fans that were expected to attend each game.

We’re talking about NFL teams potentially losing well over $100 million of stadium-generated revenue in the 2020 season, and that will affect the 2021 salary cap. Keep in mind that the salary cap this year is $198.2 million.

So aside from not agreeing on Barrett’s value, the Bucs – and all NFL teams – are concerned about what the financial and salary cap landscape will look like in 2021 before committing any more money to the future. We saw plenty of new contracts and contract extensions in mid-March just as COVID-19 began to spread worldwide, but far fewer extensions and multi-year deals have taken place this summer as the pandemic has threatened the viability of pro and college sports in 2020.

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Barrett may be forced to play one year at $15.828 million – or at $16.808 million if he follows Judon and wins a similar grievance. That could be beneficial to the Bucs, who might be curious to see if he could prove he’s not a one-year wonder and post back-to-back years with double-digit sacks.

Will Barrett be able to come anywhere close to 19.5 sacks again in 2020? Even a dip down to a dozen sacks could hurt his bargaining power next year when he turns 29.

The good news is that Barrett bet on himself last year with his modest, incentive-laden, one-year deal worth $4 million in base salary and had a career year. With the chance to earn north of $17 million over the next couple of seasons, Barrett has all the incentive to try to do it again in Tamp Bay – along with the well deserved pay raise for the 2020 season.

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