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FAB 1. No Franchise Tag For Winston

The Bucs have two weeks to decide whether or not to use the franchise tag on quarterback Jameis Winston. The NFL moved the franchise tag deadline back from March 10 to March 12, and in last week’s SR’s Fab 5 column I suggested that Tampa Bay might tag Winston to keep him as the team’s back-up plan in case general manager Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians couldn’t find an upgrade.

The thinking was that Winston, wanting a long-term contract in Tampa Bay or elsewhere, wouldn’t want to rush to sign a one-year franchise deal with the Bucs – even at nearly $27 million, which is about $6 million more than he made last season.

If the Bucs could find a better quarterback option in the league’s legal tampering period between March 14-16, the team could rescind the tag, sign the upgrade at QB and let Winston enter free agency. That would be the safest way for Licht to do what is best for the Bucs at the quarterback position, even if the potential tag and release – or if you want to call it bait and switch – idea were to upset Winston’s camp.

But that’s not what is going to happen.

The Bucs will not be using the franchise tag – or the transition tag, which would cost the team just a few million dollars less at $25 million – on Winston.

Instead, I expect to see Tampa Bay let Winston walk and test free agency.

The reason? I don’t think the Bucs think there is going to be much of a free agent market for Winston.

Which team is going to want to pay Winston $25 million or more per year when he’s coming off a career-high and league-leading 30 interceptions that contributed heavily to the team’s 7-9 record? Winston didn’t lead the Bucs to the playoffs in any of his five years in Tampa Bay and he’s played for three different NFL coaches over that span.

Is Winston a coach-killer? Well, ask Lovie Smith and Dirk Koetter and see what they have to say.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and head coach Dirk Koetter – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Nothing gets coaches fired faster than losing games, missing the playoffs and presiding over a team that beats itself. Is there a coach out there that wants to take a chance on fixing Winston when Arians, the “Quarterback Whisperer” couldn’t do it?

Let’s look at the teams of possible suitors that I came up with in a PewterReport.com article back in January.
 Carolina has a new coach in Matt Rhule and has to decide whether he wants to keep 30-year Cam Newton or draft a quarterback with the seventh overall pick. I’m not sure Rhule, a gritty disciplinarian, or offensive coordinator Joe Brady would have the patience for Winston’s penchant for turnovers.

Los Angeles Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn was perceived to be on the hot seat after a disappointing 5-11 record last year, but signed a one-year extension in early February. Still, after watching Philip Rivers underwhelm with 20 interceptions, would Lynn want a QB coming off 30 picks?

Winston would be perceived as an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett in Indianapolis, but rumors at the NFL Scouting Combine suggest that Philip Rivers will be reunited with Colts head coach Frank Reich, who was Rivers’ QBs coach for a few years in San Diego. That’s one less suitor for Winston.

And finally, if New England’s Tom Brady goes to Las Vegas that takes away a potential landing spot, as head coach Jon Gruden is looking for an upgrade over Derek Carr. But does New England head coach Bill Belichick think offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels could fix Winston, or would he rather trade for a safer option in Carr and essentially swap QBs with the Raiders, or sign Teddy Bridgewater? Belichick’s Patriots take pride in not beating themselves.

Don’t rule out Brady coming to the Buccaneers, either. Arians and Licht are expected to put on a full-court press to persuade Brady to give Tampa Bay a look, especially with an enticing pair of Pro Bowl receivers to throw to in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

I just don’t see another starting position for Winston other than possibly Tampa Bay. Even if Winston were to go to Chicago and compete for the starting job with Mitchell Trubisky, the team likely wouldn’t pay him much more than what Trubisky’s cap value is, which is $9,237,593 – otherwise the Bears would be obligated to start him. And it would likely be a one-year deal.

I could be wrong, but what I think the Bucs are finding out in Indianapolis is that there really isn’t a strong market for Winston, who has the most interceptions and turnovers of any QB since entering the league in 2015. Letting him test free agency would let the market decide how much Winston is worth, and I think that’s what Tampa Bay is going to do.

Of course there is the risk of losing him, but isn’t that just as high as the risk of keeping him?

Winston could take the stance of feeling disrespected by the team that drafted him for not giving him a robust contract extension and choose to sign elsewhere and not let the Bucs match the offer. Or he could be grateful to return to Tampa Bay if and when he discovers that there isn’t starting QB money out there in free agency, or another starting QB job.

It looks like a 50-50 proposition for both the Bucs and the league’s first 30-30 quarterback.

Tampa Bay could come across some new information that might make the team change its mind, as the start of NFL free agency is still over two weeks away. But the conclusion I’ve come away with from my time in Indianapolis this week is that while Winston remains an option for the Bucs, he’s not their first option. Tampa Bay likes Winston, but doesn’t love Winston.

If the Bucs loved Winston the team would be hammering out a new contract extension with him, or at the very least, using the franchise tag on him to ensure he doesn’t get away. But that’s not happening.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

We’ll see just how much the Bucs like Winston in the coming weeks when the team let’s him test free agency.

If a player is going to be given the franchise tag by Tampa Bay it’s going to be Pro Bowl outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, who led the league with a franchise-record 19.5 sacks and six forced fumbles.

“One is the sack leader and they’re hard to find,” Arians said. “I know he wants to be in this defense, so the other is an unknown quantity to me still – 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns is awesome, but 30 interceptions. Can we win with Jameis? Hell yeah, I think that’s no doubt, but as a coach you’ve got to decide if there’s a better option and go see if there is.”