FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots

• PEWTER REPORT BUCS BATTLE PLANS ARE BACK! Starting on Monday, March 9, PewterReport.com’s popular Bucs Battle Plans return, as each of the Pewter Reporters gets their shot at playing general manager Jason Licht and shaping Tampa Bay’s 2020 roster they way they see fit. In PR’s Bucs Battle Plans we each get to re-sign and sign whichever players we want – staying within the salary cap, of course – in addition to making the Bucs’ draft picks and any trades we feel would help the 2020 Bucs get to the playoffs.

It’s a really fun series that we created several years ago and Bucs fans really enjoy reading each one. I’m up first, so be sure to visit PewterReport.com on Monday morning for Mark Cook’s Bucs Monday Mailbag followed by my Bucs Battle Plan in the afternoon. Cook is up next on Tuesday, followed by Jon Ledyard on Wednesday, Matt Matera on Thursday and Taylor Jenkins on Friday.

• THE MYTH OF DRAFTING A RB IN ROUND 1: Due to the evolution of football away from the running the game and towards the passing game there has been a stigma against drafting running backs in the first round because the position has been “devalued.” The same could supposedly be said about drafting off-the-ball linebackers and guards high in the draft because the value isn’t there. Tampa Bay inside linebacker Devin White and Indianapolis Pro Bowl guard Quentin Nelson blow holes in this misguided theory.

RB Adrian Peterson – Photo by: Getty Images

Here are some statistics to consider for the “running backs are a dime a dozen” crowd that thinks that elite rushers can be found in any round or even as an undrafted free agent. When it comes to the running backs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, 19 of the 26 inductees in the modern era were first-round picks.

HALL OF FAME RUNNING BACKS
Marcus Allen – first round – 1982
Jerome Bettis – first round – 1993
Jim Brown – first round – 1957
Earl Campbell – first round – 1978
Larry Csonka – first round – 1968
Terrell Davis – sixth round – 1995
Eric Dickerson – first round – 1983
Tony Dorsett – first round – 1977
Marshall Faulk – first round – 1994
Frank Gifford – first round – 1952
Franco Harris – first round – 1972
Paul Hornung – first round – 1957
John Henry Johnson – second round – 1953
Leroy Kelly – eighth round – 1964
Floyd Little – first round – 1967
Marion Motley – undrafted fullback 1946
Walter Payton – first round – 1975
Joe Perry – undrafted fullback – 1948
John Riggins – first round – 1971
Barry Sanders – first round – 1989
Emmitt Smith – first round – 1990
Jim Taylor – second round – 1958
Thurman Thomas – second round – 1988
LaDainian Tomlinson – first round – 2001
Charley Trippi – first round – 1945
Doak Walker – first round – 1949

There were 16 1,000-yard rushers in the NFL last year with half of them entering the league as first-round picks. It’s seven when you take out Jackson, who is a dual-threat quarterback. Three of the top 5 rushers in 2019 were first-round picks.

THE NFL’s 1,000-YARD RUSHERS IN 2019
Titans RB Derrick Henry – 1,540 – second round
Browns RB Nick Chubb – 1,494 – second round
Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey – 1,387 – first round
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott – 1,357 – first round
Seahawks RB Chris Carson – 1,230 – first round
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson – 1,206 – first round
Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette – 1,152 – first round
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs – 1,150 – first round
Bengals RB Joe Mixon – 1,137 – third round
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook – 1,135 – second round
Colts RB Marlon Mack – 1,091 – fourth round
Packers RB Aaron Jones – 1,084 – fifth round
Texans RB Carlos Hyde – 1,070 – second round
Ravens RB Mark Ingram – 1,018 – first round
Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay – 1,011 – undrafted
Giants RB Saquon Barkley – 1,003 – first round

Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey and Bucs LB Adarius Taylor – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Four of the 16 1,000-yard backs were second-rounders, while the remaining four were drafted in the third, fourth and fifth rounds, in addition to Lindsay, who was an undrafted free agent.

And finally, eight of the all-time Top 10 rushers in NFL history were first-round draft picks.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 NFL RUSHERS
Emmitt Smith – first round – 1990
Walter Payton – first round – 1975
Frank Gore – third round – 2005
Barry Sanders – first round – 1989
Adrian Peterson – first round – 2006
Curtis Martin – third round – 1995
LaDainian Tomlinson – first round – 2001
Jerome Bettis – first round – 1993
Eric Dickerson – first round – 1983
Tony Dorsett – first round – 1977

Talent is talent, and the goal of every NFL team should be to draft a Pro Bowl-caliber player in the first round at whatever position and try not to draft a bust. If a running back is an elite talent and can be a factor on all three downs there should be no hesitation to take that player in the first round, especially when top level starting running backs will touch the ball between 200-300 times in a given season.

Bucs TE Cam Brate – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

• BUCS’ DECISION ON BRATE LOOMING: On March 22, $4 million of Tampa Bay tight end Cameron Brate’s $6 million contract becomes guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2020 league year. That leaves the Bucs with a big decision between now and then. Is Brate, who turns 29 in July, worth keeping under his current salary, or will the team attempt to make him take a pay cut to remain in Tampa Bay?

Brate loves the Tampa Bay area and just bought a house, so he might take less to stay. The guess here is that the Bucs would prefer to have him at around $4 million rather than the $6 million he’s set to earn. Brate has been banged up the last couple of years with a broken vertebrae in his lower back, a torn labrum in his hip and a rib injury affecting his play over the last two years.

Brate was the team’s No. 2 tight end behind O.J. Howard last year and had 36 catches for 311 yards (8.6 avg.) and four touchdowns. The previous year, Brate posted 30 catches for 289 yards (9.6 avg.) and six TDs in 2018. He still has some value as a red zone target, but his recent injuries have robbed him of the ability to get many yards after the catch.

The tight end position is devalued in Bruce Arians’ offense and the team has plans for Howard in 2020, and loves the improvement in the receiving area of run-blocking tight end Antony Auclair’s game. Those factors could prompt the Bucs to save $6 million altogether by releasing Brate if it needs more cap room to re-sign its defensive free agents and address the quarterback position in free agency.

• THE PEWTER NATION PODCAST RETURNS: Technical difficulties forced us to scrap the second planned Pewter Nation Podcast in Indianapolis at the NFL Scouting Combine, but the PewterReport.com team will be taping a new episode on Friday afternoon to discuss Bucs free agency and the upcoming NFL Draft.

If you missed our last Pewter Nation Podcast, which featured Jon Ledyard’s debut, check it out in the link below. It’s a good one.

Pewter Nation Podcast Episode 182: Cutting Through Bucs B.S. In Indy

The next Pewter Nation Podcast will be taped Friday afternoon – just in time for your rush hour commute to end the week – as yours truly is joined by Mark Cook, Matt Matera and Taylor Jenkins to discuss all things Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into the weekend.

There is no better time to listen to a new Pewter Nation Podcast, which is presented by Chris Garrido of Westshore Financial, than on your drive home from work on Friday or early Saturday morning at the gym or running errands.

The popularity of the Pewter Nation Podcast continues to grow. In addition to listening to the Pewter Nation Podcasts on PewterReport.com you can also subscribe to the free podcasts at PodBean by clicking here and on SoundCloud by clicking here. And of course the Pewter Nation Podcast is also available on iTunes. Make sure you subscribe so you don’t miss a single episode.

• FRANCHISE TAG COMING FOR BARRETT? The final day for NFL teams to use their franchise tag designations is next Friday, March 12, and if a new contract extension with outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett can’t be reached, Tampa Bay is expected to use the tag on the league’s leading sacker, who had a franchise-best 19.5 sacks. While the Bucs would prefer to have the 27-year old Barrett signed to a long-term deal, the team wouldn’t be terribly upset to have him play for the one-year franchise tag in 2019.

The reason? Barrett and agent Drew Rosenhaus are presumably looking for a contract in the neighborhood of $16-18 million per year. The franchise tag in 2020 for linebackers is only $15.443 million. Because Tampa Bay runs a 3-4 defense, Barrett is classified as an edge-rushing outside linebacker rather than an edge-rushing defensive end. The defensive end franchise tag designation is $17.128 million – nearly a $2 million savings for the Buccaneers just for running a 3-4 instead of a 4-3 scheme.

Bucs OLB Shaquil Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The $15.443 million tag amount would be about $2.5 million than what Barrett and Rosenhaus could be seeking, too. And after an astronomical sack total in 2019 that likely won’t be duplicated again by Barrett this season, the Bucs wouldn’t mind him back in Tampa Bay on another one-year deal with the franchise tag before committing to him long-term if Rosenhaus’ contract demands end up being unreasonable in the coming week.

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Also, make sure you follow PewterReport.com on all social media platforms this offseason as we cover the NFL Scouting Combine next month and the NFL Owners Meeting in March, plus any breaking Bucs news or press conferences.

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• TAMPA BAY INTERESTED IN GAY? One of the players the Buccaneers interviewed at the NFL Scouting Combine was Mississippi State linebacker Willie Gay, who was a top performer in the on-field testing in Indianapolis. The 6-foot-1, 243-pound junior blazed a 4.46 time in the 40-yard dash, which caught the attention of Bucs scouts as the team loves fast linebackers.

Gay also had a vertical leap of nearly 40 inches, and that athleticism showed on the field where he was a part-time starter for the Bulldogs, recording 99 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, six sacks, four pass breakups, three interceptions, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and one touchdown in three years. The problem for Gay is that he only played in five games during his junior season due to disciplinary issues. He was suspended for the season opener for academic misconduct involving a tutor, and then reportedly got into an altercation with Mississippi State QB Garrett Schrader that resulted in him breaking Schrader’s orbital bone on his face and being suspended for the rest of the year.

Some NFL Draft pundits believe that Gay will be a Day 2 pick based on his Combine testing, but he clearly lacks some necessary instincts on film and has a lot of growing up on and off the field to do. Gay will likely be a Day 3 pick, and could be a steal for a team like Tampa Bay if he can mature and become a good teammate.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians believes in giving players a second chance if they are sincere in wanting to make the necessary changes to turn their lives around. Tampa Bay has a strong enough coaching staff with Arians, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, whom Gay met with at the Combine, and inside linebackers coach Mike Caldwell where the team could take on Gay if the Bucs indeed have a draftable grade on him due to his past transgressions. If Tampa Bay feels he’s worth the risk, Gay could develop into an athletic play-maker and a potential eventual replacement for Lavonte David down the road. Check out his highlight video below.