FAB 2. The Case Against The Bucs Keeping Winston

I was able to come up with 10 positive factors about Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston in this first section of SR’s Fab 5. Now it’s time to turn to the negative aspects of Tampa Bay’s signal caller for the past five years. After racking my brain, I’ve only come up with four cons in the case against Winston. The first of which is a big one – turnovers.

The Turnovers
Not only does Winston lead the league in interceptions this season with 23, but his five lost fumbles give him 28 total turnovers, which is the most in the NFL – and more than some teams. This is a big one, as Winston has 81 interceptions and 23 lost fumbles in his five years in the league. Winston has over 100 total turnovers and no one is even close to turning the ball over at the rate that he has.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

The first rule of football is “Don’t beat yourself.” Turning the ball over is a huge part of the Bucs’ beating themselves over the years. Winston’s critics will point to his turnovers having played as big of a role in the team’s three double-digit losing seasons over the last five years, just as his defenders could point out the fact that Winston has played with a sub-par defense and a sub-par running game have really contributed to the losing.

Winston struggled with turnovers at Florida State, especially in his sophomore year after winning a national championship and the Heisman Trophy as a redshirt freshman. In 2014, Winston threw 18 interceptions and 25 touchdowns after passing for 40 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions in 2013. In five years, Winston has failed to really curtail his number of picks. He had a career-low 11 in 13 games in 2017, but had 14 in just 11 games last year.

Winston threw a career-high five interceptions and had a fumble in a six-turnover performance against Carolina in London earlier this year in his worst performance as a pro. That was very unsettling for a quarterback in his fifth year, but Winston also showed that he could overcome a three-interception outing against Indianapolis last week by throwing four touchdowns and rushing for one more score.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians added some perspective on Winston’s high number of turnovers this week when addressing the Detroit reporters on a conference call.

“I mean, just quit giving points to the other team early in the game, and then have us to play from behind and come back to beat teams,” Arians said. “But for me, it’s him learning the offense in his first year. Every quarterback I’ve had, their first year in this offense, the interceptions were up, but the touchdowns were up also. I think if we can stay somewhere around three-to-one, not one-to-one, we’re in good shape.”

Carson Palmer had a career-high 22 interceptions and 24 touchdowns in his first year with Arians in Arizona in 2013. The next year, Palmer had 11 touchdowns and three interceptions while going 6-0 before a knee injury prematurely ended his season. In 2015, Palmer threw for a career-high 35 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions in leading the Cardinals to a 13-3 record and a berth in the NFC Championship Game.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Roger McQueen

While Winston has thrown a league-high 23 interceptions, he’s also tossed 26 touchdowns, which is tied for second in the league with Seattle’s Russell Wilson and just two TDs behind Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (28). And Winston’s 4,115 passing yards are just eight yards behind Dallas’ Dak Prescott’s 4,122 yards.

If the Bucs don’t keep Winston, this will be the reason. He’s been a turnover waiting to happen. Will it change in his sixth year in Tampa Bay and his second year with Arians? That will be the question heading into 2020.

Taking Too Many Sacks
What came first, the chicken or the egg? Why does Winston take so many sacks – because he holds on to the ball too long or because the offensive line isn’t good enough in pass protection? The answer to the first question is, “No one knows.” The answer to the second question is, “Probably both.”

Winston has been sacked a total of 163 times in five years, an average of 2.3 times per game. However, he’s been sacked a career-high 41 times this year through 13 games, an average of 3.2 times per contest. Part of it has been the fault of poor pass protection from the offensive line, backs and tight ends. Part of it has been the fault of Winston for hanging on to the ball too long as he goes through his progressions or waits for receivers to get open.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Those 163 sacks have resulted in 50 fumbles and 23 lost fumbles over the years. Winston’s holding on to the ball has been an issue since he entered the league, and it’s been even worse this year as Arians, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen have told Winston to keep his eyes trained downfield rather than scramble.

But Winston is a good scrambler and whether he defied orders or the Bucs coaches decided to green light Winston running more often, Winston has done a better job of taking off if receivers are covered or throwing the ball away to avoid sacks as of late. That needs to continue down the stretch and into next year for Winston to really put a dent in his turnovers. Some of Winston’s fumbles from sacks have been just as deadly to the Bucs as his interceptions.

The Character Risk
As I stated in Fab 1, Winston has become a changed man now that he’s engaged and become a father. He’s sober and more mature. That’s a good thing because after his three-game suspension, if Winston has another off-field incident he could be suspended for a full year. Remember, there was speculation that Winston’s original suspension was six games, but reduced to three.

Knowing Winston a bit and talking to members of the Bucs’ brass, the team feels confident that his transgressions and immature behavior are behind him. The Bucs don’t have a real concern about Winston’s character anymore, but because he was suspended just two years – even though the alleged incident took place four years – that topic will be raised by team management when it comes to contract negotiations in the offseason.

Winston’s Record
This is a very tricky con to pin on Winston – or any one NFL player. The old axiom is that quarterbacks should be judged on wins and losses, and Winston has compiled a 27-40 record as the team’s starter, including a 6-7 mark this year. Yet football is the ultimate team sport, and Winston not only has to rely on his 10 other teammates on offense, but also the 11 other teammates on defense, in addition to the success of kickers, punters, long snappers and return specialists on special teams.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’s easy to go back and look at how many fourth quarter leads the Bucs defense has blown, or the missed field goals – like Matt Gay’s 34-yard potential game-winner against the New York Giants earlier this year – and suggest that Winston should have some more wins. But there are times when games aren’t necessarily won or lost in the fourth quarter, but instead earlier in the game with an interception, a fumble or a dropped touchdown that comes back to haunt the Bucs at the end of the game.

All of Winston’s fumbles and interceptions count just like all of his touchdown passes and runs do. The NFL won’t mark any of those with asterisks, nor should we mark Winston’s wins and losses the same way. They count and his record is 27-40.

Yet all who objectively observe of the Buccaneers, including Licht, Arians and the Glazers, would agree that Winston has not been complemented with anything resembling a good defense throughout much of his tenure in Tampa Bay. Nor has Winston had a reliable running game outside of his rookie season when Doug Martin rushed for over 1,400 yards and joined him at the Pro Bowl.

It’s also noteworthy that the play of the Bucs offensive line in front of Winston has also been suspect and inconsistent over the years, and that has played a role in rushed throws that have turned into picks and pressure that has resulted in sack-fumbles. The lack of consistently good offensive line play has also played a significant role in Winston’s 27-40 record.

So what will happen with Winston? What should happen to Winston? Just because I found 10 pros to just four cons doesn’t mean that it’s a slam dunk that Winston will or should return to Tampa Bay in 2020. Not all of the points raised will be weighted evenly.

Licht, Arians and the Glazers are going to weight those points differently. Winston’s community service work won’t be weighted nearly as heavily as Winston’s penchant for turning the ball over – nor should it be.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and GM Jason Licht – Photo courtesy of the Buccaneers

I suspect Winston gets another year. Whether it is with a franchise tag that will be north of $26 million, or a negotiated short-term deal with the Bucs that features a team opt-out after one year in order to free up the franchise tag for another player like outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett.

I don’t think Arians, Licht and the Glazers are ready to give up on Winston just yet for many of the reasons I laid out in Fab 1. But what I would do – and what I envision the Bucs doing – is draft a quarterback early, perhaps as high as the second round for insurance. If Winston pans out in 2020 and is worth keeping for the long term then Tampa Bay either has a talented backup quarterback in case Winston gets injured, or a player of value who could be traded in the future.

We’ll have a better idea of what the Bucs will do in three weeks when the season is over – and we’ll know for sure in three months before the start of free agency in 2020.