FAB 2. Bucs Must Avoid Another 2-3 Start

Instead of basking in a rousing 48-41, opening day win at New Orleans on Monday, Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter accurately stated that life in the NFL is a week-to-week proposition. Tampa Bay fans that are still drunk on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s five-touchdown performance against the Saints might need reminding that the 35-year Fitzpatrick once threw six interceptions in one game, and is on his seventh NFL team for a reason.

What goes up eventually comes down, and Koetter knows it.

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Koetter’s Bucs teams are now 3-0 on opening day, and he and his coaching staff are feverishly working to avoid going 0-3 in Tampa Bay’s second game of the season over the last three years.

That’s why he didn’t do a lot of celebrating on Sunday night, especially with the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, who are 1-0 after beating Atlanta, coming to town.

“I didn’t really enjoy it that much,” Koetter said. “I’m very happy for the guys. These guys deserve it. We played hard, but literally a few minutes after that game I was thinking about Philly. That’s just how you have to be. We have injuries, we knew we had left Brent Grimes at home. I start worrying about how we’re practicing on Wednesday.

“You just start worrying about the things you have to get done and the losses stick with you more than the wins are celebrated. That’s just how it has to be right now – I’m talking for me personally. Players – I hope they lived it up or however they celebrate. Ryan Fitzpatrick – go home and hang with his kids or whatever it is, but you’ve got to move on.”

Going 1-1 to start the 2018 season might not be a bad record, especially without starting quarterback Jameis Winston, who is still serving a three-game suspension to start the season. But it hasn’t served the Bucs well at all over the last two years.

In 2016, the Bucs were flying high after a 31-24 Week 1 upset of the Falcons in Atlanta. The next week, Tampa Bay got trounced on the road in Arizona in a brutal game 40-7. That defeat would start a three-game losing skid with losses against the then-St. Louis Rams and the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos before the Bucs won at Carolina on Monday Night Football to get improve their record to 2-3 heading into the bye week.

Bucs CB Vernon Hargreaves – Photo by: Getty Images

Last year, the Bucs’ season began with a Week 1 bye due to Hurricane Irma, followed by an opening day win against Chicago, 29-7. Once again, optimism was high following a big win, only to see Tampa Bay get crushed at Minnesota, 34-17. The Bucs rebounded at home the next week against one of the league’s worst teams in the New York Giants on a last-second field goal, 25-23, but then went on to lose a home game to New England and another loss at Arizona to once again start another season with a 2-3 record.

You see the problem for Tampa Bay isn’t a 1-1 record. It’s the 2-3 start that has followed. The Bucs were able to weather a 2-3 start in 2016 to finish 9-7, but missed the playoffs by a game. Last year, a 2-3 start was compounded by Jameis Winston’s shoulder injury, which affected the performance of the offense for a good deal of the season.

The best path for a playoff run is to get early season momentum, although it’s not impossible to come back from a 2-3 start to make the playoffs as the 1999 and 2001 Bucs proved.

The Start Of Bucs’ Past Playoff Seasons
5-0 – 1979 – 10-6 record
5-0 – 1997 – 10-6 record
4-1 – 2002 – 12-4 record
4-1 – 2005 – 11-5 record
3-2 – 1981 – 9-7 record
3-2 – 2000 – 10-6 record
3-2 – 2007 – 9-7 record
2-3 – 1999 – 11-5 record
2-3 – 2001 – 9-7 record

The last time Tampa Bay began a season 2-0 was in 2010. That was when Raheem Morris’ “Youngry Bucs” missed the playoffs by a game while finishing 10-6. The Bucs would give anything to have a 10-win season again – as it usually comes with a playoff berth in most years.

Bucs WRs DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Thanks to a Week 1 upset in New Orleans, the Bucs have the chance to do something that they’ve never done under Koetter – start a season with back-to-back wins. Yet even a 2-0 start doesn’t mean that the Bucs would avoid going 2-3 as the next three games are against Pittsburgh at home and Chicago and Atlanta on the road.

But first things first, and Tampa Bay will have its hands full against the defending Super Bowl champs, who are also 1-0 after defeating the Falcons last Thursday night.