Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Todd Bowles’ Biggest Decision – Choosing The Right QB

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles was faced with two monumental decisions this offseason. The first was replacing offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, who was fired after Tampa Bay averaged 18 points per game last season, which was down from 30 points per game from 2020-21.

Bowles took a big risk on hiring Seattle quarterbacks coach Dave Canales, an unproven play-caller. Canales has received rave reviews from the players, coaches and front office, and will gain some needed valuable experience calling plays for the first time as the Bucs’ preseason begins.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bowles’ next big decision is actually quite monumental – choosing his starting quarterback. Like it or not – despite throwing more interceptions so far in training camp, veteran journeyman Baker Mayfield is probably the safer pick by Bowles to start Tampa Bay’s season opener at Minnesota.

Although, that is not already set in stone, despite a report from reporter Ira Kaufman that team sources tell me is “very premature,” especially since the preseason hasn’t even begun yet. As Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times accurately reports, Kyle Trask has caught up to Mayfield in practices by doing a better job of protecting the football.

Mayfield has 69 career starts under his belt and has played in plenty of hostile environments as he begins his sixth year in the league. But he’s also led the NFL with 64 interceptions since entering the league in 2018.

“We’ve got a good basis of where we are with those two guys,” Bowles said on Wednesday. “And we just need to see some things Friday as far as running the offense and getting a feel for where they are. We kind of have a good basis and ground basis of what we want to do. But seeing them perform is completely different from game to practice. So we’ve got an idea and we’ve got a good feel. So we’ll kind of let it play out a little bit more, but we have a good stat sheet where we kind of have everything rated of how we see them.”

Even if Mayfield underwhelms in the preseason and the unproven Kyle Trask fares better, it would still take a lot of guts for Bowles to choose a guy who enters his third season in Tampa Bay with just nine career pass attempts to start versus the Vikings. A sold-out U.S. Bank Stadium full of 73,000 purple people screaming, “SKOL!” is a tough enough environment for any quarterback to enter, especially on the frenzy that is opening day.

Bucs DC Todd Bowles and CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

Yet Bowles is not afraid of playing young, unproven players if they have talent. He started rookies Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean at cornerback in 2019 opposite Carlton Davis III, then a second-year player himself. In 2020, he started rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. at safety during the Bucs’ Super Bowl season.

In his first year as the head coach in Tampa Bay, he OK’d the decision to start Luke Goedeke, a second-round pick, at left guard. And he was just fine playing a trio of rookies in defensive tackle Logan Hall and tight ends Cade Otton and Ko Kieft on a regular basis.

But we’re talking about the quarterback position here.

As much as Bowles is a defensive-minded head coach and believes that defense can still win championships, he knows that no other position affects wins and losses more than the QB.

Make the right choice under center and the Bucs could get off to a better-than-expected start and be an early surprise team around the league. Yet the wrong decision could turn into an ugly start in Tampa Bay and quickly prompt calls for the backup quarterback – whoever that ends up being.

It’s rare in the NFL that the backup quarterback comes in and rights the ship after the first month or two of the season and then leads the team to the playoffs. Usually what tends to happen is that the starter falters, the backup comes in and ends up underwhelming and then is benched for the starter again. A yo-yo quarterback situation almost always winds up with a double-digit losing season, followed by a reset at the QB position the next year, and usually the firing of the head coach.

Bucs QBs Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bowles is less than one month from making a decision that will largely impact his tenure in Tampa Bay. If he’s going to choose Mayfield, he has to hope that Dave Canales’ system will help him limit costly turnovers. If Bowles is going to choose Trask, he has to hope that the moment won’t be too big for him, and that Trask continues on a career path of that of a late bloomer, which is what he was in both high school and at the University of Florida.

Whoever winds up as the starter, the next decision Bowles will make will be third-most difficult of the year – and one he hopes he never has to make. That’s when to pull the plug on a failing starter if it turns out that’s the case. Bowles and Leftwich waited too long to bench Goedeke last year (in Week 8) and let the rookie struggle so bad that it wound up hurting the offense.

If Bowles doesn’t make the right decision at quarterback this year, and if the Bucs collapse as a result, he might not be around to make the next decision: which quarterback to draft in the Top 10 in 2024 in that scenario.

FAB 2. Baker Mayfield’s Pros And Cons – So Far

Unless the bottom falls out for Baker Mayfield this preseason with a large amount of interceptions, it is expected that head coach Todd Bowles will name him the starter for opening day at Minnesota. Mayfield will get the first start during the preseason on Friday night at home against Pittsburgh, although Kyle Trask will play. Through three weeks of training camp, we’ve gotten a chance to see Mayfield’s pros and cons in practice. Let’s take a look.

Pro: Game Experience

QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today
Photo By: USA Today

There is no substitute for experience, and Baker Mayfield has it as a starter over the last 4.5 years in the league between Cleveland, Carolina and Los Angeles with the Rams. Mayfield is 31-38 as an NFL starter, including a 30-31 mark with the Browns. He did have a winning season, leading Cleveland to the playoffs with an 11-5 record and a postseason victory. The Browns lost to the eventual AFC champion Chiefs in 2020. The Bucs hope to see that version of Mayfield – with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions – in 2022.

Pro: Leadership

Part of the reason why Baker Mayfield was the first overall pick in 2018 was because of his swagger and aura. He’s a natural, outspoken leader and players naturally gravitate towards him. Mayfield exudes confidence in the locker room, on the practice field, on the sidelines, and most importantly, in the huddle. If Todd Bowles picks Mayfield to start the season opener in Minnesota, this intangible will be a big reason why.

Pro: More Big Play Potential

There is no doubt that Baker Mayfield has generated more “wow” plays in practice, especially with his downfield throws. He’s connected deep at a better rate than Trask has. He’s more willing to give his receivers a chance to make a play on a jump ball – whether it be the likes of established players like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin or young guys like Deven Thompkins and Rakim Jarrett. Trask has proven to be more risk-averse in practice, especially when it comes to pushing the ball downfield.

Con: More Interceptions

Bucs QBs Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With more risks come more interceptions. Baker Mayfield is certainly not afraid to push the ball downfield or into tight windows, but sometimes that comes at great peril. The new Bucs QB has thrown a team-high nine interceptions through 12 practices, and some of those were simply not good decisions. To his credit, Mayfield has never thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in any season, but he had 10 TDs and eight INTs last year, and 17 touchdowns and 13 picks the year before that in his final season in Cleveland. Ideally, QBs would like to have a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and Mayfield is far away from that with 102 career TDs and 64 INTs. That’s not even a 2:1 ratio.

Con: Height

Baker Mayfield stands just 6-foot-1 and sometimes has trouble seeing over the line of scrimmage. Tampa Bay’s O-line features 6-foot-6 guard Matt Feiler, a trio of linemen at 6-foot-5 in tackle Tristan Wirfs, guard Cody Mauch and tackle Luke Goedeke, and a pair of 6-foot-4 centers in Ryan Jensen and Robert Hainsey. Mayfield has already had issues with batted balls in practice, and rookie outside linebacker YaYa Diaby made a diving interception on one of them. The issue of batted balls has been with him his whole career and came up last year in Carolina, where Mayfield got agitated talking about it.

FAB 3. Kyle Trask’s Pros And Cons – So Far

It would take some extenuating circumstances in the preseason for Todd Bowles to name Kyle Trask the starting quarterback in Week 1 at Minnesota. But that’s why they play the games, right? Trask has fared better than most expected in training camp, and after a so-so first week of camp, he’s really stepped up. Trask is more decisive with his decision-making and throws, and is much more in command of the offense. Here is how Trask’s pros and cons shake out heading into the preseason.

Pro: Height

Bucs QBs Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Kyle Trask is a legit 6-foot-5 quarterback and that height helps him to see over Tampa Bay’s tall offensive line and find open receivers downfield. Trask even admitted to slouching in the pocket some over his first two years in the league and is standing up straighter and playing taller in the pocket this year. His height translates to a higher launch point for the football in the pocket and helps Trask avoid the batted balls that the 6-foot-1 Baker Mayfield has to endure.

Pro: More Reps With Certain Players

While Kyle Trask barely threw any passes to Tampa Bay’s star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin during his first two seasons as the team’s third- or fourth-string QB, he did establish a rapport with the backups. Trask did get quality reps last year with the Bucs’ rookie class, including receivers Deven Thompkins and Kaylon Geiger, tight ends Cade Otton and Ko Kieft and running back Rachaad White, in addition to backup running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn. That established chemistry has paid off this summer with a high degree of completions to those players, while getting used to throwing to Evans, Godwin and the newcomers.

Pro: Avoiding Turnovers

Through 12 training camp practices, Kyle Trask has only thrown five interceptions, and three of those came in one practice on Tuesday when the Bucs were practicing last-play, end-of-game scenarios. The ball had to be forced into the end zone on occasion and two of Trask’s picks came in that situation, as did one of Baker Mayfield’s two INTs during Tuesday’s practice. But Trask was relatively error-free in 10 practices, which was good to see, as the emphasis from offensive coordinator Dave Canales and head coach Todd Bowles is protecting the football.

Con: Inexperience

Bucs QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: USA Today

There is no getting around Kyle Trask’s lack of experience. He appeared in just one quarter of the final regular season game last year, completing 3-of-9 throws for just 23 yards in a Week 18 loss at Atlanta. Outside of that, Trask only has experience playing in preseason games with backups or third-stringers. While Mayfield will get the start against Pittsburgh on Friday night, Trask will see time with the starters when the Bucs play the Jets at New York the following week. It’s rare that inexperienced quarterbacks fare well in their first season as a starter, which is why it would take a lot of courage and conviction for Todd Bowles to start Trask in 2023.

Con: Deep Ball

Kyle Trask is listening to the mantra of Dave Canales and Todd Bowles – both of whom preach protecting the football. He’s done a very good job of that, even if it’s come at the expense of some potential big-play opportunities. Trask hasn’t let ‘er rip with as many deep throws as Mayfield has, and when he has taken shots downfield, they haven’t connected at a high rate. To his credit, most of Trask’s incompletions are overthrows and not interceptions risks. He needs to keep working on connecting downfield, especially outside the hashes. Trask is more comfortable with intermediate range throws down the middle, especially to the tight ends.

FAB 4. Dave Canales Sees Bucs’ QB Race Tighten

New Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales wanted to see the team’s quarterback competition tighten in training camp, and that’s exactly what has happened with Kyle Trask coming on strong the last two weeks of practice .

Bucs QB Kyle Trask and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“Trying to figure out the quarterback situation, which is going fantastic – better than I could have imagined or even dreamed of, the way that this is going,” Canales said on a recent episode of the Salty Dogs Podcast. In a recent episode on Aug. 10, Canales was asked to give his assessment of both Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask.

“What Baker does well is his experience allows him to see things and to anticipate,” Canales said. “What I’m seeing from Kyle in that regard is I’m seeing a guy who’s working tirelessly, studying, asking questions. Kyle wants it to be crystal clear. ‘Okay, let’s go over this one more time.’ So as he catches up with the with the concepts you see his talent really starting to emerge.

“You’ve got two fantastic guys with really strong arms, great, quick decision-making ability, and pretty good athletes – both of them. You know, obviously, I was spoiled having Russell [Wilson] and then Geno Smith – two guys who traditionally could really run and move around, where these guys get it done another way. But short space quickness – both of them can get it done. So watching those guys really push each other as we try to master this offense has been so cool.”

Canales was asked if he can keep the same play calls for both Mayfield and Trask or if he has to run certain plays for a certain signal caller.

Bucs OC Dave Canales and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“I would say slightly,” Canales said. “And it’s really just the level of comfort that they have with pass concepts. They just may favor one or the other. So that’s just taking notes. Really the best thing to do in the process is just have two separate call sheets for guys so you don’t have to filter through all of them. But I would say 75% of it – all three guys, John [Wolford] included – have really mastered most of that. There are just a few things that he doesn’t really like or I can tell he is not being really effective in, and those things we’ll be just like, ‘All right, let’s not call those plays in those situations.”

As Pewter Report has reported time and time again, the Bucs’ QB competition will largely come down to turnovers. Which quarterback does the better job of protecting the ball? If it’s Mayfield, he’ll get the nod for opening day against the Vikings at Minnesota. If it’s Trask … well, then it gets interesting for Todd Bowles.

“I take them very seriously,” Canales said of the interceptions thrown in practice in a recent interview with WFLA News Channel 8. “Because in my view — the way that I was trained, and especially here with Coach Bowles and the way we’re going to play defense — making sure we take care of that ball is the key to our success this year.”

FAB 5. Todd Bowles Recalls His First Preseason Game – vs. Tampa Bay

Before he got into coaching at the NFL level, head coach Todd Bowles had an eight-year career at safety in the NFL. Bowles signed as an undrafted free agent with the Washington Redskins (1986-90), then played for the San Francisco 49ers in 1991 before returning to Washington for his final two seasons. Bowles’ career highlight was winning Super Bowl XXII with the Redskins in 1987.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

On Wednesday, Bowles recalled his first NFL preseason game, which happened to be against the Bucs in Tampa. Bowles made a huge play against the lovable losers in orange and white that ultimately helped him make the team in 1986.

“My first preseason game actually was against Tampa Bay,” Bowles said. “I got a pick-six off of Steve DeBerg, so that helped me make the team pretty good [laughs]. I do remember it because it was storming and raining and we couldn’t get out of the airport that night. We had to stay overnight and then fly out the next day. I’m always fond of Tampa that way. You’re not really worried about the national anthem or the fans – you’re trying to make the team.

“You have a lot of butterflies and you know you’re going to play as a rookie – and you’re going to play all special teams. When I got the pick-six, I think I might have spiked the ball a yard after going over the end zone because I knew I had to go down on the kickoff team – I didn’t want to expend any energy. It’s exciting – as a rookie, it’ll be exciting. It’s a matter of who manages their emotions well and who can play under the lights.”