FAB 2. Burrow, Herbert Are Top QBs Bucs Might Have Interest In

If the Bucs place the franchise tag on quarterback Jameis Winston next year, bringing him back as the starter for 2020, don’t be surprised if the team drafts a quarterback to serve as a backup plan – an insurance policy in case Winston’s sixth year in Tampa Bay is no better than any of the previous six when it comes to wins or reducing his turnovers.

This was Winston’s lone year without any competition – his first since the 2017 season. In 2018 with Winston sidelined with a three-game suspension to start the year, Ryan Fitzpatrick use some FitzMagic to dazzle the Bucs to a 2-1 start with three consecutive 400-yard games before the magic ran out. Still, it created a competitive dynamic that forced Dirk Koetter to waffle between the two for much of the season. Fitzpatrick was benched twice and Winston was benched once during that 5-11 campaign.

Bucs QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Even with the full confidence of the new coaching staff and no challenger that would cause Winston to look over his shoulder, Winston’s game hasn’t risen to the level that neither he nor the team expected. The Bucs seem destined to finish 5-11 for a third straight year – give or a take a win or loss.

If Winston returns in 2020 there better be a legitimate challenger – a serious threat to compete with Winston for the Bucs’ starting job next year and in the future. That challenger needs to either push Winston towards greatness or push him out of Tampa.

Even if Winston returns, don’t rule out the Bucs hedging their bets and drafting a quarterback in the first round – even with more pressing needs elsewhere, such as offensive tackle and in the secondary. If Tampa Bay continues to lose and winds up with a Top 10 pick, drafting an elite quarterback prospect might be too tempting to pass up – especially with “the quarterback whisperer” Bruce Arians sitting next to general manager Jason Licht in the war room.

The top quarterback prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft is LSU’s Joe Burrow, who won his head-to-head match-up with Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa three weeks ago. Tagovailoa has long been considered the top QB prospect until a devastating hip injury against Mississippi State last week that ended his season prematurely and has his football future somewhat in doubt. Despite the injury, Tagovailoa is expected to enter the NFL Draft and still might be considered a first-round pick, according to draft expert Luke Easterling, who covers the Bucs and also writes for DraftWire.com.

Easterling feels that Miami, which needs a franchise quarterback and has three first-round picks, could use its second first-rounder to select Tagovailoa and get by with Josh Rosen for one more year while the Alabama star rehabs from his injury, possibly sitting out his rookie campaign. Would Tampa Bay take a risk on drafting Tagovailoa with its first-round pick even if he couldn’t play in 2020?

Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy and QB Tua Tagovailoa – Photo by: Getty Images

Bucs tight end O.J. Howard, a former Crimson Tide star, knows how special Tagovailoa is and he might be worth the wait.

“He’s gotten better and obviously he was already a really good player last year, but he’s gotten better with his decision-making and not just trying to extend plays,” Howard said. “You rarely see him not putting guys in position to run with the catch. He’s always leading guys – they don’t have to slow down and wait on the ball and that’s what stands out to me. He’s definitely a top prospect for those reasons.”

Tagovailoa stepped in for sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts in the 2017 National Championship Game and saved the day for Alabama as the Crimson Tide came back to beat Georgia. He started the 2018 season as a sophomore, which prompted Hurts to transfer to Oklahoma for his senior year in 2019.

TAGOVAILOA’S ALABAMA PASSING STATS
2017: 63.6 percent passing for 636 yards with 11 TDs and 2 INTs
2018: 69 percent passing for 3,966 yards with 43 TDs and 6 INTs
2019: 71.4 percent passing for 2,840 yards with 33 TDs and 3 INTs

If the Bucs are going to use a high draft pick to select a quarterback, the one key aspect Tampa Bay will hone in on is finding a passer that doesn’t have a lot of turnovers and knows how to protect the ball. With 87 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions, Tagovailoa, a junior, fits the bill.

At 6-foot-1, 218 pounds, Tagovailoa has been described as a left-handed Russell Wilson. But aside from his recent serious hip injury, Tagovailoa has the Bucs and other teams worried about his durability. Tagovailoa has had surgery on both ankles and has had a knee injury that affected him in 2018 and caused him to miss time in 2019 before his hip injury.

Bucs middle linebacker Kevin Minter, who went to LSU and heavily follows SEC football, respects Tagovailoa’s ability to throw the ball and make plays.

LSU QB Joe Burrow – Photo by: Getty Images

“It’s just how he’s reading the defenses and putting the ball where it needs to be,” Minter said. “The way he’s come along as a passer in college, the dude’s special.”

While he likes Tagovailoa, who has a 21-2 record as a starter at Alabama, Minter believes Burrow is better.

“Smokin’ Joe, I love how he leads the team,” Minter said. “Don’t get me wrong, we’ve had leaders before at that position, but it’s kind of the way he’s taken the team on his back and helped push the team forward. He’s just hot – he’s hot right now.”

After two years at Ohio State as a backup where the threw two touchdowns, Burrow transferred to LSU for his junior season where immediately stepped in as the starter and threw for nearly 3,000 yards with 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. During his senior season, Burrow and new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who is just 30 years old and spent two seasons under Sean Payton as New Orleans’ offensive assistant from 2017-18, has improved his accuracy by an astounding 20 percentage points while more than doubling his amount of touchdowns.

BURROW’S LSU PASSING STATS
2018: 57.8 percent passing for 2,894 yards with 16 TDs and 5 INTs
2019: 78.6 percent passing for 3,687 yards with 38 TDs and 6 INTs

“The job he and Coach Brady have done is huge,” Minter said. “It’s still kind of surreal to me to see an LSU offense dominate the way they are. We were such an old-school, hit-you-in-the-mouth, run-and-win-with-defense-type of team and to seeing how we’re doing it now is crazy.”

Bucs middle linebacker Devin White played with the 6-foot-4, 216-pound Burrow last year at LSU and isn’t surprised by the level of success he’s having this season.

LSU QB Joe Burrow – Photo by: Getty Images

“He was a guy that was Mr. Ohio football coming out of high school and then all the setbacks he had once he got to college – but his will and determination stand out,” White said. “Once he got to LSU he came in and worked and won the team over immediately. On the practice field he came to work and showed everybody who he was. Now you’re all seeing what we saw from the start.”

After seeing LSU dominate his alma mater at Alabama, Howard is a Burrow believer.

“He’s definitely a top candidate for the Heisman and a top prospect also,” Howard said. “Joe makes the throws. Joe makes good decisions. He doesn’t turn the ball over a lot. I’ve noticed that from him, and he has some weapons on offense, too, with his receivers, and he puts those guys in good positions to make plays. He throws a great fade ball. He’s really come a long way from last year.”

Due to Tagovailoa’s durability concerns, he’s not the top QB on the Bucs’ draft boards. That’s Burrow, who is smart, tough, has great leadership qualities and makes good decisions with the football. Tampa Bay loves him, but likely won’t have a shot at him – even if the team winds up with a Top 5 in 2020.

That’s because winless Cincinnati currently has the first overall pick and has given up on long-time starter Andy Dalton. Burrow, who is 20-3 as a starter, goes first to the Bengals in Easterling’s mock draft and most mock drafts around the Internet right now.

So if the Bucs won’t have a shot at Burrow and wouldn’t use a first-round pick on Tagovailoa, who’s next? That would be Oregon senior quarterback Justin Herbert, who would have been regarded as a Top 10 QB had he entered the draft after his junior season. Nothing has changed for Herbert as a senior except that he’s gained more experience and he’s improved as a passer by raising his completion percentage by 10 points and lowering his interceptions.

HERBERT’S OREGON PASSING STATS
2016: 63.5 percent passing for 1,936 yards with 19 TDs and 4 INTs
2017: 67.5 percent passing for 1,983 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs
2018: 59.4 percent passing for 3,151 yards with 29 TDs and 8 INTs
2019: 69.6 percent passing for 2,662 yards with 28 TDs and 3 INTs

Herbert remains a Top 10 pick, and with Tagovailoa’s injury, likely winds up as the second QB selected in the 2020 draft. If the Bucs keep losing, they might have a shot at the best Ducks quarterback since Marcus Mariota. With 91 TDs and only 20 INTs in his career, Herbert makes a lot of plays and not a lot of mistakes.

Oregon QB Justin Herbert – Photo by: Getty Images

At 6-foot-6, 237 pounds, Herbert is a good athlete with ideal size. He’s not a fiery leader like Burrow is. Rather, he’s more like Tagovailoa in that he leads by example.

The other potential first-round pick is Georgia junior Jake Fromm, who started for the Bulldogs as a freshman and led them to the National Championship Game. With a 33-6 record as a starter, Fromm has been a winner from the start. With 70 career touchdown passes and just 16 interceptions in his Georgia career so far, Fromm does a great job of protecting the ball.

FROMM’S GEORGIA PASSING STATS
2017: 62.2 percent passing for 2,615 yards with 24 TDs and 7 INTs
2018: 67.4 percent passing for 2,761 yards with 30 TDs and 6 INTs
2019: 64.8 percent passing for 1,968 yards with 16 TDs and 3 INTs

Fromm doesn’t have the strongest arm, and at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, he lacks prototypical QB size for the NFL. Fromm might be an ideal fit for a West Coast offense team, but for Arians’ vertical-based offense, having a quarterback that can push the ball down the field is a must.

It’s too early to tell if the Bucs need to draft a quarterback in the first round. There are six more games left for Winston to prove himself worthy of being the team’s starter in 2020. But if the turnovers keep happening and the losses mount, drafting a quarterback in the first or second round definitely becomes a more likely option.

Let’s examine which quarterbacks might intrigue Tampa Bay in the second round.