Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs improved to 5-7 following a 21-18 win against the 1-11 Panthers in a rain-soaked game on Sunday. The 6-6 Falcons won at New York in a low-scoring affair, 13-8, against the Jets to maintain their lead in the NFC South.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Tampa Bay ended a two-game losing streak with a much-needed win against a bad Carolina team. The fact it was by just three points wasn’t terribly inspiring. Yet the Bucs head to Atlanta to face the Falcons with a bit of momentum in a must-win game for Tampa Bay’s fading playoff hopes. The team needs to win at least four of its last five games, including all three remaining division games to finish 9-8 and have a chance at the postseason. A loss to Atlanta would put the Bucs at 5-8 and the Falcons in the driver’s seat with a perfect 4-0 record in the NFC South.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

Should the Bucs lose this game, it puts Todd Bowles’ role as head coach in jeopardy. He likely wouldn’t get fired during the season, but not showing progress in the win-loss column or in the postseason would probably lead to a head coaching change in Tampa Bay after the season is over. And a loss could mean the Bucs turn the page on Baker Mayfield with the team all but being eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Falcons. Tampa Bay may want to see what the team has in backup quarterback Kyle Trask, a former second-round pick, down the stretch.

But a win for the Bucs would allow them to regain the lead in the NFC South. Both Tampa Bay and Atlanta would have identical overall records and divisional records, but the Bucs would have the tiebreaker in wins against common opponents Minnesota and Tennessee. At least for one week, the Bucs’ playoff hopes would remain alive.

What’s At Stake For The Falcons

After a pair of 7-10 seasons for Arthur Smith, the Falcons’ head coach needs a breakthrough season. With a 6-6 record right now, this year’s Atlanta team has the chance to win the NFC South and keep him off the hot seat. Smith’s running attack in Atlanta has taken off this year with the two-headed monster that is first-round pick Bijan Robinson and reliable rambler Tyler Allgeier. The Falcons run to win, and have beaten the Bucs the last two games by establishing a dominant ground game.

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Falcons as an organization have been known for choking for well over a decade now. From blowing a 28-3 lead over the Tom Brady-led Patriots in the Super Bowl to losing a lot of regular season games in the fourth quarter, Atlanta has to do a better job of closing out games and coming out on top. The Falcons have a chance to sweep the Bucs and all but eliminate them from NFC South title contention with a win on Sunday at home. Can they do it, or will they choke again?

If the Falcons lose to the Bucs and fail to win the NFC South and make the playoffs for a third straight season, it could very well cost Smith his job. Atlanta owner Arthur Blank has shown plenty of patience with Smith, but three consecutive losing seasons is not a sign of progress and most NFL owners won’t stand for that in today’s game. Like Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay, Smith could be coaching for his life in Atlanta on Sunday.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs RB Rachaad White and Falcons S Jessie Bates III – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay struggled to run the ball in Week 7, with Rachaad White totaling just 34 yards on the ground. The Bucs’ running game has definitely shown improvement over the second half of the season, and White ran for 100 yards in a loss at Indianapolis two weeks ago and 84 yards in last week’s win against Carolina. Having more balance on offense has allowed the Bucs’ play-action passing game to work even better and has taken some of the pressure off quarterback Baker Mayfield. Rushing for 100 yards or more would be a key to victory for the Bucs.

Defensively, the Falcons were able to move the ball at will against the Bucs back in Week 7, but three red zone fumbles by Desmond Ridder – all recovered by the Bucs – prevented the game from being a blowout. Tampa Bay will need to continue to create takeaways, but also create more three-and-outs. Slowing down the Falcons’ ground game on the early downs to set up third-and-long situations would be a big step.

Wide receiver Mike Evans and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. both had superb games against the Falcons the last time these two teams met. But that wasn’t enough to beat Atlanta. Tampa Bay needs another player to rise up on both offense and defense and star, in addition to Evans and Winfield having yet another sensational showing against Atlanta. Evans and Winfield can’t just continue to be one-man-gangs offensively and defensively for the Bucs, especially with the NFC South division lead on the line.

The Falcons Win If…

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo by: USA Today

The Falcons beat the Bucs back in Week 7 by not just running the ball for 156 yards, but also by some timely big plays in the passing game from quarterback Desmond Ridder. Those play-action opportunities were there because Atlanta had success on the ground, and rushing for 100 yards or more is paramount to the Falcons winning. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta’s leading rusher, was sick for the first matchup and barely played. But he’s over 1,000 total yards and has six total touchdowns and is tough to contain on all three downs.

Ridder threw the ball well against the Bucs and ran for the Falcons’ lone touchdown in addition to some well-timed scrambles. But he also had three red zone fumbles, including two at the goal line. If he had been turnover-free, the Falcons might have blown out the Bucs in Tampa Bay. Protecting the ball needs to be Ridder’s focus on Sunday in the rematch.

Defensively, the Falcons have one of the stingiest red zone defenses and that contributed mightily to holding the Bucs to just 13 points in the first meeting earlier this season. Atlanta’s defensive front, which is led by Calais Campbell, does a great job of stuffing the run and pressuring the passer without having to load the box or blitz. That means that the Falcons can usually drop six or seven in coverage, and with the truncated field in the red zone, it usually leads to field goals. If Atlanta can force Tampa Bay to score more field goals than touchdowns, it’s a recipe for success.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell

Bucs WR Mike Evans and Falcons CB AJ Terrell – Photo by: USA Today

In the Bucs’ Week 7 loss to the Falcons in Tampa, Mike Evans had six catches for 82 yards and one touchdown, but it wasn’t enough as the Bucs’ offense put just 13 points on the scoreboard. Prior to Sunday’s huge game against the Panthers, Evans had done more damage against the Falcons than any other NFL team. Evans has 91 career catches for 1,399 yards (15.4 avg.) and 11 touchdowns versus Atlanta.

After catching seven passes for 162 yards and a touchdown against Carolina, Evans now has slightly higher production against the Panthers with 99 career receptions for 1,458 yards (14.7 avg.) and 11 touchdowns. That needs to change in a big way on Sunday. Evans needs to have a similar type of performance as he did against the Panthers in Atlanta. Like Carolina, Atlanta plays a lot of man-to-man coverage, so Evans will get plenty of opportunities to win his 1-on-1 versus Terrell.

Evans has gotten the best of Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell over the years and that must continue this week. The Bucs have been hoping for another player on offense to consistently rise up and wear the superhero cape alongside Evans all season. Earning $20 million per season, it was expected to be Chris Godwin, but that hasn’t been the case as Godwin has struggled to consistently produce for Tampa Bay. So until another player ascends to a true complementary role on the Bucs offense, Evans must continue to be the superhero, and in Atlanta, he must save the day once again.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey vs. Falcons LG Matthew Bergeron

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey and ILB Devin White – Photo by: USA Today

When Calijah Kancey played the Falcons back in Week 7, it was essentially the second full game of his NFL career. He finished with a modest one tackle and two quarterback pressures in Tampa Bay’s 16-13 loss. Since that game, Kancey has recorded two of his three sacks this season and 18 more pressures, including four QB hits. In order for the Bucs to have a chance of beating the Falcons in Atlanta, Kancey needs to turn in a dominant performance.

In last week’s 21-18 win over Carolina, Kancey had two tackles and five pressures, including a pair of QB hits. He’ll be facing both of Atlanta’s guards, Pro Bowler Chris Lindstrom and Matthew Bergeron, the Falcons’ left guard who has surrendered four sacks and 25 pressures – both team highs.

He’ll need to go toe-to-toe with Lindstrom and hold his ground against Atlanta’s best offensive player, but then take advantage of his superior athleticism when dueling with Bergeron. When Kancey is deployed against Bergeron, he needs to win those reps. This is the kind of game where the Bucs really need Kancey to take over and make a handful of big plays against the run and the pass to have a chance of winning in Atlanta.