Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss, and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

Coming off an 8-9 record and an NFC South championship in 2022, the Bucs begin the season on the road at Minnesota against a Vikings team that finished atop the NFC North with a 13-4 record. Both the Bucs and the Vikings had disappointing home losses in the Wild Card round of the playoffs last year and will be looking to start the season with some good vibes that comes only from an opening-day win.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs have a brand new offense this year with first-year play-caller Dave Canales. Nothing would make the players buy in even more to the new scheme than some early success on offense. Because of lack of film to study Canales’ tendencies – and the play-calling in the preseason was rather generic – the Bucs have the element of surprise offensively and need to take advantage.

Todd Bowles isn’t on the hot seat yet coming off an 8-9 season that was good enough to win the NFC South, but he needs to win early to keep his critics at bay. The Bucs started last year 2-0 with impressive road wins at Dallas and at New Orleans. They could use a similar start this season.

A beatable, but improved Bears team awaits the Bucs in Week 2 for the home opener. Coming home with a win would give this young Tampa Bay team some momentum heading home, in addition to taking some of the pressure off against Chicago. Playoff chances plummet for teams that start the season 0-2.

What’s At Stake For The Vikings

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by: USA Today

Minnesota needs to get a win at home in the 2023 season opener to build some early momentum. The Vikings travel to Philadelphia on a short week to play the Eagles, last year’s NFC champions, on the following Thursday night.

Minnesota started the season 9-1 last year before suffering its second loss, en route to a 13-4 record. After beating Green Bay in the home opener, 23-7, the Vikings lost their second game last year at Philadelphia on Monday Night Football, 24-7.

So starting off 0-2 would be a far cry from the Vikings’ hot start a year ago. That’s why winning in Week 1 is paramount for Minnesota before traveling to Philly for another tough road game in Week 2 this year. Last year’s season ended at home with a disappointing playoff loss to the Giants. They’ll want to give the fans something to cheer about to start the 2023 campaign.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay needs to win the turnover battle this year more than ever. While this team has a playoff-caliber roster, the depth is thin and the margin for error is smaller than it is for other NFC powers like Philadelphia and San Francisco due to the Bucs’ youth and inexperience at several positions.

The Bucs can’t beat the Bucs this year. They’re not good enough to overcome eight penalties or more in a game, and certainly won’t win if they turn the ball over more than they take it away. Great teams have the ability to still win games if they lose the turnover battle due to elite talent, but the Bucs roster isn’t there yet.

Baker Mayfield needs to start the season by avoiding the interceptions that have derailed his career in the past, and the Bucs defense needs to begin the year by picking off Kirk Cousins. Tampa Bay only recorded 10 interceptions last year after posting 17 in 2021. Limiting turnovers to one or none and recording at least three takeaways on defense is the recipe for a Bucs’ opening-day win.

The Vikings Win If…

Vikings DT Khyiris Tonga – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay wants to establish the run this season and become more balanced on offense. That means the Bucs will likely force the run in Week 1 to set the tone for the season. Minnesota needs to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s young, revamped offensive line, win the line of scrimmage and make strides in its run defense.

The Vikings defense ranked 31st in the league last year, allowing 391.1 yards per game, while their run defense ranked 21st, allowing 124.2 yards per game. Minnesota has to sell out to stop the run and force Tampa Bay into predictable passing situations, especially creating third-and-long downs. If the Bucs achieve balance, it could be a long day for the Vikings defense.

But if Minnesota can stymie Tampa Bay’s ground game with the help of big 6-foot-4, 338-pound nose tackle Khyiris Tonga, it can unleash edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport and put the pressure of winning the game on the right arm of Baker Mayfield. The Vikings feel they have the edge at quarterback in this battle with Kirk Cousins versus Mayfield.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

OLB Danielle Hunter vs. RT Luke Goedeke

Vikings OLB Danielle Hunter – Photo by: USA Today

Hunter will rush the passer from both sides of the line, but primarily lines up on the left side, rushing against right tackles. New Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will want to attack the Bucs’ weakness, which is the young and inexperienced right side of the offensive line.

That means deploying Hunter, the Vikings’ best pass rusher, more on the left side in this game to edge rush Goedeke and then stunt inside and try to beat rookie right guard Cody Mauch with a change-up. The 6-foot-5, 263-pound Hunter is a gifted pass rusher with speed-to-power in addition to having long arms that allow him to grab and sack quarterbacks even when he’s blocked.

The 28-year old Hunter has four seasons with double-digit sacks, including 10.5 sacks last year when he made his third Pro Bowl. He’ll give Goedeke all he can handle in Week 1, especially in a loud, raucous environment like sold-out Bank of America Stadium. Goedeke can’t let the crowd noise effect him and be late off the snap or Hunter will make him pay.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

WR Justin Jefferson vs. CB Carlton Davis III/Bucs Secondary

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and Vikings WR Justin Jefferson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Jefferson is an absolute game-breaker and one of the Top 5 receivers in the NFL – if not the best. The three-time Pro Bowler led the NFL in catches (128) and yards (1,809) last year while averaging 14.1 yards per catch and scoring eight touchdowns.

Will this be the game where Bucs head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles deploys Davis, his best cornerback, in man coverage against Jefferson and follows him wherever he goes the way he did last year against Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase? Or will Bowles really respect Jefferson’s deep speed and play more Cover 2 zone with safety help over the top than he might want in order to limit Jefferson making plays down the field?

Regardless, Jefferson can’t go off against the Bucs with 100 yards and more than one touchdown. Bowles’ defense did an effective job on Jefferson during his rookie season in 2020, holding him to just four catches for 39 yards on eight targets. Adam Thielen is gone and unheralded K.J. Osborn is the new No. 2 receiver. Rookie Jordan Addison is also in the mix. But slow down Jefferson, and the Bucs defense slows down the entire Vikings offense – especially without running back Dalvin Cook this year.