Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs have won three straight NFC South titles and sit atop the division with 2-0 New Orleans after the team’s 20-16 Week 2 upset of the Lions. Tampa Bay now heads home for a two-game homestand. First up is a game against the 0-2 Denver Broncos led by another rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, the team’s first-round pick.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Lions HC Dan Campbell and Bucs HC Todd Bowles- Photo by: USA Today

With a win over Denver, Tampa Bay has a chance to start the year 3-0 for the first time since 2005 when the team won its first four games en route an 11-5 season. The Bucs have started 2-0 for four straight seasons dating back to 2021, but have yet to win three straight in September. The fact that the team is playing at home against a lesser opponent in the winless Broncos works in the Bucs’ favor.

In the last home game, the Bucs defense made life miserable for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the second overall pick, as Tampa Bay crushed the Washington Commanders, 37-20. Todd Bowles’ defense had Daniels on the run and sacked him twice while holding him to less than 200 yards passing. The score was 37-13 before a last-minute Daniels touchdown run in garbage time. And Bowles’ unit is coming off an impressive showing in Detroit, holding the Lions to just 16 points in a gritty, 20-16 upset in Week 2.

The Bucs offense needs to get back on track this week. Liam Coen’s squad ran roughshod over an over-matched Washington defense with over 400 yards and four touchdowns. But facing a stingy Lions defense, Tampa Bay was held to just two touchdowns and a pair of field goals and really struggled to run the ball. The Bucs’ ground game could get well this week against a Broncos run defense that is allowing 143.5 yards on the ground per game.

What’s At Stake For The Broncos

Broncos HC Sean Payton – Photo by: USA Today

Simply put, head coach and offensive mastermind Sean Payton has to find a way to put some points on the board – even with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. The Broncos have scored just one touchdown – a Nix rushing TD – in two games, and average just 13 points per game, which ranks 30th in the league. Nix has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has thrown a pair of interceptions in each game.

To make matters worse, the Broncos don’t have a ground game to lean on to help their rookie QB. Denver ranks 27th in the league in rushing, averaging just 81.5 yards per game. In fact, Nix is the team’s leading rusher with 60 yards. That’s not good. Running back Javonte Williams is second on the team with 19 carries for 40 yards (2.1 avg.) through two games.

Defensively, the Broncos have some playmakers, most notably cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who is the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history. But Denver’s defense hasn’t made a lot of splash plays through the first two weeks with just four sacks and one interception. Denver is minus-3 in the turnover ratio category and the defense has to do more to help out the team’s rookie quarterback or risk falling to 0-3, as Tampa Bay will be the best team the Broncos have faced to date.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs ILB SirVocea Dennis and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Denver’s offense is one of the worst in the league in terms of scoring points and running the ball. Todd Bowles will want his unit to continue to make life difficult for the Broncos’ ground game and force Denver to be one-dimensional on offense. Forcing Bo Nix, who has four interceptions and no touchdown passes and a less than 60% completion percentage, to beat the Bucs is the recipe for success this week. Expect Bowles to get after Nix with a myriad of blitzes that should turn into sacks and disguised coverages that will hopefully force some more interceptions.

On offense, getting an early lead has done wonders for the team in its 2-0 start. The Bucs jumped out to a 13-0 lead in a Week 1 win over Washington and never looked back. A 6-0 lead in Detroit last week helped give Tampa Bay some early momentum on the road. Getting out a similar early lead against Nix and the Broncos would allow the Bucs to cruise to victory as Denver’s offense isn’t built for comebacks. Tampa Bay is still looking for its first opening-drive touchdown since the 2022 season and it could come on Sunday.

The Bucs have the advantage on offense and defense against the Broncos, and should have it on special teams, too. Tampa Bay needs some work on kick coverage, and punter Jake Camarda needs to punt better. But at least kicker Chase McLaughlin is off to a perfect start this season, going 5-of-5 on field goals and 6-of-6 on extra points through two games.

The Broncos Win If…

Broncos QB Bo Nix – Photo by: USA Today

While Denver is 0-2 and lacks the star power talent – and the talented depth – that Tampa Bay has, the Broncos have been in both games they’ve played this year. They hung with Seattle on the road in a 26-20 loss, and actually had a 13-9 lead at halftime in Week 1. In last week’s home loss to Pittsburgh, the Steelers were up 13-0 before the Broncos got on the board with two late field goals. Despite the losses, there is no give-up in these Broncos.

If Denver is going to pull off an upset in Tampa Bay, the defense must come up with enough takeaways to win the turnover battle. Baker Mayfield threw his first interception of the season in Detroit last week, and the Broncos will need to pick him off again in Week 3, in addition to applying some pressure on him. Mayfield got sacked five times last week, but Denver doesn’t have Aidan Hutchinson – or anyone close to him as a pass rusher.

Establishing the run will be key for the Broncos. They’ve struggled mightily in the run game on both sides of the ball – running it and stopping it. Denver will need to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s defense being without defensive tackle Vita Vea and possibly Calijah Kancey. The bad news is that the interior of Denver’s offensive line isn’t exactly a strength. Getting some turnovers, finally scoring some touchdowns and then mustering up a ground game out of thin air might be the only path to victory for the Broncos.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs O-Line vs. Broncos D-Line

Bucs C Graham Barton – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s offensive line struggled in all phases of last week’s 20-16 win at Detroit. The Bucs couldn’t run the ball in Week 2, as Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for 40 yards on 17 carries (2.4 avg.) while quarterback Baker Mayfield was the leading rusher with 34 yards on five carries, including an 11-yard touchdown on a designed quarterback keeper. Tampa Bay topped the 100-yard mark in Week 1 and the offensive line needs to assert itself against a lesser Broncos defensive line in order for the running game to rebound.

The Bucs offensive line may or may not see the return of starting right tackle Luke Goedeke, who missed last week’s game with a concussion. He’ll have to clear concussion protocol first, otherwise Justin Skule, who gave up three sacks last week, will get the start again at right tackle versus Denver.

The Bucs gave up five sacks as a unit last week and must improve this week to give Mayfield more time to throw from a cleaner pocket. Denver’s two best pass rushers are blitzing linebackers Jonathan Cooper (two sacks) and Alex Singleton, who has the Broncos’ lone interception this season. Denver’s defensive linemen aren’t much of a threat when it comes to rushing the passer and they aren’t that good at stopping the run, either.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby vs. Broncos RT Frank Crum

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Todd Bowles saw what Lions Pro Bowl defensive end Aidan Hutchinson could do against a backup right tackle in last week’s Win at Detroit.  Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks, including three against Justin Skule, who was filling in for the injured Luke Goedeke. Detroit’s game-wrecker could not be stopped, and that’s what he hopes will happen this week when his own top edge rusher, outside linebacker Yaya Diaby plays the Broncos.

Denver is without right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who sprained an MCL last week and will miss at least four weeks of action. Rookie Frank Crum, an undrafted free agent out of Wyoming, is the likely replacement. Against a fast, powerful edge rusher like Diaby, Crum could be in for a very long day – similar to what Skule experienced last Sunday at Detroit.

Diaby has yet to record a sack, but that could change on Sunday against an underwhelming opponent. Diaby had a team-high five pressures in a Week 1 win over Washington and a team-high seven pressures, which was a personal best, in last week’s victory at Detroit. Last year’s leading sacker also had two quarterback hits on Jared Goff. Diaby could be in for a monster day against Denver on Sunday.