Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs game with six quick-hitting topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what will lead to a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a couple of key matchups to watch each week.

The Bucs fell to 4-7 following a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis against the 6-5 Colts. The Panthers have won just one game and are 1-10 on the year, which prompted the firing of head coach Frank Reich, who didn’t get to finish out his first year in Carolina.

What’s At Stake For The Bucs

Tampa Bay’s playoff chances are slim, but there’s still a chance. A team that has won just four of its first 11 games now has to win at least five of its last six. There’s no momentum in Tampa Bay as the Bucs have now lost two in a row and six of their last seven games. Not only is the team playing for a third NFC South title, which might be the only way it can get into the postseason unless the Bucs win out – Todd Bowles’ job is also on the line.

The Glazers wanted to see progress in Bowles’ second season as the head coach, but a team full of his hand-picked players and coaches has underwhelmed. Finishing 8-9 again wouldn’t be progress – even if it meant winning the division. Tampa Bay would probably have to win a playoff game for Bowles to have a chance at sticking around.

As for this game, losing to a 1-10 Panthers team would be embarrassing for the Bucs, especially at home. The Glazers have never fired a head coach during the season before, but might make an exception if Bowles somehow manages to lose to a one-win team.

What’s At Stake For The Panthers

Panthers head coach Frank Reich – Photo by: USA Today

Carolina is a franchise in turmoil right now under impatient owner David Tepper, who just fired head coach Frank Reich on Monday following another Panthers loss. A 1-10 start wasn’t ideal, especially with a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young, but Tepper’s quick trigger finger – he’s fired three head coaches within the last two years, including interim head coach Steve Wilks – might make it hard to lure a good head coach to replace him.

The Panthers traded up to get Young with the first overall pick, but he’s been slow to develop, completing 61.7% of his passes for 1,877 yards with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. What’s worse for Young and Carolina is that the rookie QB picked right behind Young, Houston’s C.J. Stroud at No. 2, is flourishing and could win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

The Panthers have the least-talented roster in the NFL, and that’s not helping Young for sure. Will a head coaching change spark the Panthers to a win over the Bucs? It’s possible, especially with how poorly Tampa Bay has played over the last two months.

The Bucs Win If…

Bucs OLB Markees Watts – Photo by: USA Today

While the Bucs have a decent amount of talent, the team seems to make mistakes at the wrong time or just doesn’t make a play when it needs to. The margin for error is slim with Tampa Bay, and that dates back to a Week 1 win in Minnesota where the Bucs won the turnover margin 3-0, yet only beat the Vikings by a field goal. When Tampa Bay had a more talented roster in 2020 and 2021, a 3-0 turnover margin would have resulted in a 20-point victory for those Bucs teams. So eliminating costly mistakes is critical.

Tampa Bay needs to jump out on Carolina early to avoid self-doubt creeping in later if it’s a close game in the fourth quarter. The Bucs have failed to win close games at the end against the Falcons, Texans and Colts in recent weeks. Whether it’s getting a long-awaited touchdown on the opening drive or an early takeaway on defense, getting the lead in the first quarter and maintaining that lead by halftime seems crucial.

Tampa Bay’s defense has had a rough couple of weeks, giving up 39 points at Houston and 27 points at both San Francisco and Indianapolis. Will a return to home help? The last time the Bucs defense played at home, it only surrendered six points to the Titans in a 20-6 win over rookie quarterback Will Levis. Playing against another rookie QB at Raymond James Stadium could produce a similar result with the home fans helping out with some crowd noise on third down.

The Panthers Win If…

Texans DE Jonathan Greenard and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

New interim head coach Chris Tabor, the team’s special teams coordinator, would be wise to pull out all the stops when Carolina travels to Tampa Bay. What does he and his 1-10 team have to lose? That means going for it on fourth downs, using fake punts, trick plays and all-out blitzes in an attempt to serve as an equalizer for having a less talented roster. The Bucs have to be prepared for the Panthers’ unpredictability.

Carolina’s offensive line is one of the worst in the league, which has led to a league-high 43 sacks surrendered, including Bryce Young being sacked 40 times. If the line can give Young time to throw and open some holes for Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders the Panthers might have a chance. Tampa Bay’s pass rush has been spotty at best this year, especially over the last couple of games.

Carolina’s defense is terrible at taking the ball away. The Panthers have just five interceptions and two forced fumbles on the year. To put that in perspective, the Bucs defense, which hasn’t been stellar, has nine interceptions and nine forced fumbles. If Carolina is going to have any chance at victory, it’s going to have to win the turnover margin – and probably by two or more.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs RG Cody Mauch vs. Panthers DT Derrick Brown

Bucs RG Cody Mauch – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Rookie right guard Cody Mauch has really made some strides during his first season as a starter. Sure, there are mistakes every game, which is to be expected from any rookie, but they are more technique and hand placement errors rather than missed assignments and getting physically beaten. Mauch is a very good athlete and a scrappy, physical lineman. He doesn’t back down from a challenge and has gotten better on a weekly basis.

Mauch has had his share of sacks allowed and penalties, but these are the growing pains that come from a trial-by-fire year. The only way he’ll learn and gain the necessary experience to get better is to play, and Mauch should be playing his best football of the year down the stretch. He’ll have his hands full against the Panthers’ best defender in defensive tackle Derrick Brown.

Brown is a 6-foot-5, 320-pound beast in the middle with a great mix of strength and athleticism. He’s not the best pass rushing defensive tackle, evidenced by just one sack this season, but he’s good at collapsing the pocket and very good at stuffing the run. In his fourth season after being the seventh overall pick in 2020, Brown is more polished and could give Mauch fits on Sunday.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs CBs vs. Panthers WR Adam Thielen

Bucs CB Zyon McCollum and Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Carolina’s offense is terrible and the lone threat in the passing game is 33-year old receiver Adam Thielen, who leads the Panthers with 77 catches for 728 yards (9.5 avg.) and four touchdowns. The next receiver in Carolina in terms of catches and yards is rookie Jonathan Mingo, who has 28 catches for 286 yards (10.2 avg.) and zero TDs. That’s a huge drop off from No. 1 and No. 2, and probably the biggest discrepancy across the league.

Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young has really struggled during his rookie year, and his receiving corps is incredibly lackluster. As crazy as it sounds, if the Bucs cornerbacks can shut down old man Thielen, who isn’t explosive anymore, Tampa Bay’s defense can easily hold the Panthers to 17 points or less.

The Bucs might be able to get Jamel Dean back from an ankle sprain this week. If not, Zyon McCollum will start once again opposite Carlton Davis III. Davis had a great game against Indianapolis with his first interception of the year, a few pass breakups and 10 tackles. McCollum was just okay and also had 10 tackles, but gave up more receptions than Todd Bowles would have liked. Either Davis or McCollum should be able to contain Thielen on Sunday.