Recently we looked at how the Bucs defense can limit the Texans offense with a few possible game plan keys. Now we turn our eyes towards what the Bucs much-maligned offense can do to get some points on the board. Once again much thanks to Arjun Menon and his Scouting Report app which can be found here.

Stay In 11 Personnel

The Bucs started the season trying to live in 12 personnel (one running back two tight ends) almost 50% of the time. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales has learned as the season has worn on that is not the most efficient usage of his players and has adjusted accordingly.

Over the last three weeks he has used 12 personnel just 40% of the time. That trend should continue and amplify against the Texans. Houston would most likely match 11 personnel with a 4-2-5 front where they are allowing +0.03 expected points per play and -0.05 epa/play rushing. If the Bucs choose to run 12 personnel the Texans would most likely respond with a 4-3-4 look where they have been more successful on defense (-0.09 epa/play overall and -0.37 epa/rush).

Bucs Must Challenge Texans Secondary And Force Deep Shots

I don’t mean force in just go “bombs away” on every play call. But the Bucs offense needs to design and get to 7-8 deep shots on the game. For the season the Texans have allowed opposing passers to go 12-26 for 377 yards with two touchdowns and two turnover-worthy plays on pass attempts of 20 air yards or more.

If that cumulative line were stacked up against all passers with at least 24 such attempts it would rank tied for 8th in completion percentage (46.15%) and eighth in yards per attempt (14.5). The Texans are susceptible to the deep ball. They rank 20th in success rate allowed on passes that travel 20 air yards or more and 22nd in epa/play allowed on the same such plays.

With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer all showing the ability to get open and make plays deep it could be the “X” factor that decides the game.

Houston can be beat downfield…But will the Bucs take the shots? pic.twitter.com/0FVxMzussZ

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 4, 2023

More Play Action From Shotgun

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

This one is a combination of game planning for the Texans’ defense and some self-scouting of the Bucs offense. Houston is very susceptible to play action. On the season they have allowed opposing quarterbacks to go 42-50 for 495 yards. Again, comparing that cumulative line to the quarterbacks in the league it would be ranked 1st in completion percentage and seventh in yards per attempt.

Basically, opposing offenses can get just about a new first down on every 1st and 10 if they just ran play action each time. Now, while the Bucs have been more successful from play action than any other single factor (personnel grouping, motion, run/pass, under center/shotgun), they haven’t been world beaters.

At just 7.0 yards per attempt Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks t-25th in the NFL in play-action. But over the past three weeks Mayfield and the Bucs offense have a success rate of over 50% on plays where they run play action from shotgun.

After running several successful PA boots/half boots early in the season defenses started to sit on them by having edge rushers stay home. A counter that has been successful over 50% of the time in recent weeks has been PA from the gun. Here it nets 23 on the catch and run. pic.twitter.com/saefEZIESd

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 4, 2023

Find Rachaad White In The Flats

The Texans under Ryans will run Cover 1 a fair amount. In those situations, Bucs running back Rachaad White will be left one-on-one with a linebacker. In certain looks he will have that matchup plus leverage as the Panthers had in this play.

#GoBucs RB Rachaad White has an opportunity for a big day on Sunday against HOU’s defense. Texans will go C1 with regularity leaving plays in the flats like this open. pic.twitter.com/p3oo8miRHu

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 4, 2023

The Bucs can also beat the Texans’ cover-1 blitz scheme with well-timed screens like they did against the Bills last week.

Spoke about this a couple of weeks ago on the “Audibles and Analytics” podcast with @LedyardNFLDraft that the Bucs offense could get a new unlock if they could incorporate their screen game better. Awesome play-call and design by @DcoachCanales and great execution by the players. pic.twitter.com/gvW77rHcCX

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 29, 2023

Have Hot Reads Ready

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Some of the Bucs’ troubles this year on offense has been related to the team’s lack of answers when a defense brings a blitz. Either hot reads aren’t built into some plays or Mayfield doesn’t check to them.

So, when a free rusher is able to get through Mayfield doesn’t have a quick outlet to get rid of the ball. This has left him having to try and navigate the unblocked defender, get out of structure, and make things happen as he scrambles, or the whole thing turns in to a negative play. Houston does not blitz much as compared to the league as a whole.

The league average is about 25% and Houston is running a 24.3% blitz rate per Pro Football Reference. But when they do blitz it is with great efficacy. Over 54% of the Texans’ blitzes this year have generated a quarterback pressure.  Mayfield is completing barely over 50% of his passes this year when pressured.

HOU disguises their sims and blitzes well. Bucs will need to be looking for them and have hot reads prepared to counter. pic.twitter.com/zf3zVq8032

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 4, 2023