Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Bucs Face Big Decision Regarding Todd Bowles

What a turnaround it has been in Tampa Bay this year. A month ago, the Bucs were 4-7 and we were beginning to talk the team having a Top 10 draft pick and about head coaching candidates to possibly replace head coach Todd Bowles.

Now with an 8-7 record thanks to a four-game winning streak that nobody saw coming, Bowles’ job security has definitely improved. But has he done enough to completely remove himself from the hot seat as a surefire candidate to return as Tampa Bay’s head coach next year?

No, not yet.

And Bowles knows that because the mission isn’t finished.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

All that is guaranteed right now is another 8-9 record for Tampa Bay if the Bucs don’t win their last two games.

The Bucs – meaning the Glazers and general manager Jason Licht – want to see progress from Bowles’ Bucs this year. That means winning more games than the team did last year.

Beating the Saints on Sunday would be a huge step in the right direction for Bowles and his team, as it would mean another NFC South championship and at least a winning record in Tampa Bay, and either a 9-8 or 10-7 finish, depending on what happens in Carolina in Week 18.

But is a one-win improvement and winning the division again enough for Bowles to be a lock to return as head coach in 2024? Only the Glazers and Licht would know for sure, but the guess here is that Bowles needs at least two more wins to really solidify his return next season.

That could come in one of two ways for Bowles down the stretch. Finishing the season with wins over the Saints and the Panthers to get to 10-7 should be enough to help Bowles keep his job. That’s a two-win improvement over last year, another division title, and perhaps more importantly, a six-game winning streak to end the regular season.

The Bucs have only had two six-game winning streaks within the same season before, and only one of them happened during the regular season. That was in 1999 during an 11-5 season under Tony Dungy. The other time it happened was in 2020 when the Bucs finished the regular season with four straight victories and then won four more games in the postseason, including Super Bowl LV.

If Bowles can win out, he is in rarified air, joining the ranks of only Dungy and Bruce Arians as the only head coaches in franchise history with six straight wins within a season. That’s significant.

Win or lose in the Bucs’ home playoff game and it still seems likely that Bowles would be back as head coach in 2024 with a 10-7 record in the regular season thanks to a historic six-game winning streak.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and owner Bryan Glazer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But what if the Bucs falter in one of their final two games and wind up 9-8, yet still win the division? Then it gets complicated and a bit murky for Bowles, who might need to win the home playoff game in the Wild Card round to help his cause in 2024.

Remember, the Glazers and Licht want to see improvement from a year ago, but they also want to see if Bowles is the kind of head coach who can lead a team to the Super Bowl and win it. While a 10-7 Bucs team riding a six-game winning streak would be quite dangerous heading into the postseason, nobody is saying this year’s squad is Super Bowl-caliber.

Yet if Bowles can guide his team to a home playoff win this year, it adds one more vital element to his head coaching resume.

Things are looking much more promising for Bowles and the Bucs at the end of December compared to the end of November. Now it’s time to seal the deal with another NFC South championship and achieve a winning record by sweeping the Saints on Sunday.

FAB 2. Todd Bowles Deserves Tons Of Credit, Must Play Starters Down The Stretch

Todd Bowles has come under fire from fans for his calm, stoic demeanor on the sidelines, some questionable game management and personnel decisions and his maddening decision to rarely call timeouts in the first half of games this season. He’s not the lovable, quotable Bruce Arians, who had a bombastic personality, but Bowles deserves a ton of credit for the Bucs’ turnaround this season.

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bowles’ even-keeled approach helped the Bucs win four straight games to bounce back from a 4-7 hole the team dug itself with a disastrous 1-6 stretch after a promising 3-1 start. There was never any panic. Bowles never lost the locker room. There was no finger-pointing. There was no division in the locker room, either.

That’s hard to do given that this year’s Bucs team has so many rookies and newcomers on the roster.

Bowles is not without his faults, and his delays in making necessary depth chart and playing time changes has been maddening to watch, and it contributed to the team’s awful 1-6 midseason stretch. But in addition to getting his team to play better down the stretch and make fewer mistakes, Bowles has also coached better and managed the game better, too.

Bowles has learned from his mistakes, and that’s all any of us can ask for from the coaches that coach and the players that play the game we all love. One mistake Bowles must learn from is what happened a year ago in Atlanta in Week 18.

With the NFC South title secured the week prior thanks to a win over Carolina, Bowles’ intentions in a meaningless game were pure. The Bucs led 17-10 at halftime, but Bowles pulled his starters and the team was shut out in the second half. Tampa Bay lost 30-17 and instead of finishing with a 9-8 record, the Bucs finished 8-9 and Bowles was saddled with a losing record in his first year as the head coach.

The Bucs followed that up by losing to the Cowboys at Raymond James Stadium, 31-14, the next week and Bowles entered the 2023 season on the hot seat due to an 8-10 record, including the playoff loss.

Hopefully Bowles understands that perception can be reality, and that 10 wins this season certainly means more than nine – even though the Bucs could win the NFC South with just nine. Reaching 10 wins means a six-game winning streak entering the playoffs and an extra shot of momentum. Winning 10 games gives Bowles a winning record as a head coach in Tampa Bay at 18-16 instead of a .500 record at 17-17.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The fact that Bowles did not pull his starters with the team leading Jacksonville 30-0 in the third quarter gave a hint about what he might do in Carolina in Week 18 if the Bucs beat the Saints and win the NFC South this Sunday.

“We’ve got a lot of young guys that need a lot of experience,” Bowles said. “I think last year, we played Atlanta and pulled the starters in the last game – we lost our mojo going into the playoffs. We’ve got things to work on and get better and we’re going to play.”

That sounds like a head coach who has learned from his previous mistakes and is getting better. Bowles needs to understand he needs as many wins as he can get this year to give the Glazers and general manager Jason Licht the confidence that he can be a winner in Tampa Bay in the regular season and the postseason.

Having said that, seven wins in a row, including a playoff victory at home, sounds even better, doesn’t it?

FAB 3. When Evaluating Todd Bowles, Bucs Must See What’s Behind Door No. 2

Part of the equation of deciding whether or not to keep Todd Bowles as the head coach in 2024 is who the Bucs would essentially be turning down as alternatives. If Tampa Bay was to make a change in the offseason, it would likely move in an opposite direction from Bowles, who is a defensive-minded head coach.

The Glazers have likely noted that they’ve won two Super Bowls with offensive-minded head coaches in Jon Gruden and Bruce Arians. Hiring offensive-minded head coaches who call their own plays has become the trend in recent years for two reasons.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

No. 1, the head coach-quarterback relationship is of utmost importance in the NFL, and having continuity and long-term stability in that relationship can lead to long-term success. Look no further than Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, or Sean Payton and Drew Brees back in the day in New Orleans.

No. 2, defensive-minded head coaches like Todd Bowles run the risk of losing their offensive coordinators to head coaching jobs if they ascend as play-callers and impress NFL owners. If Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales has another good season as a play-caller, his charisma, leadership style and supreme ability to win a press conference with the media will have him as a hot head coaching candidate in 2025. That means Bowles would have to find a replacement.

The only problem with the swinging pendulum approach and finding an offensive-minded head coach to possibly replace Bowles next year if the Bucs falter down the stretch is that many of the best play-callers around the league are already head coaches. Tampa Bay is averaging 21.7 points per game heading into Week 17, which ranks 17th in the league.

Here are the 16 teams that rank ahead of the Bucs in scoring, as well as a look at their play-callers.

Dolphins – 30.9 – Mike McDaniels – HC
Cowboys – 30.1 – Mike McCarthy – HC
49ers – 29.6 – Kyle Shanahan – HC
Ravens – 27.8 – Todd Monken – OC
Lions – 27.5 – Ben Johnson – OC
Bills – 26.9 – Joe Brady – OC
Eagles – 26.1 – Brian Johnson – OC
Browns – 23.9 – Kevin Stefanksi – HC
Rams – 23.8 – Sean McVay – HC
Colts – 24.2 – Shane Steichen – HC
Chiefs – 22.1 – Andy Reid – HC
Packers – 22.2 – Matt LaFleur – HC
Jaguars – 22.1 – Press Taylor – OC
Saints – 22.1 – Pete Carmichael Jr. – OC
Texans – 21.9 – Bobby Slowick – HC
Denver – 21.8 – Sean Payton – HC

Out of these 16 teams, nine of the offensive play-callers are head coaches. That leaves just seven offensive coordinators with play-calling experience to choose from.

Ravens – 27.8 – Todd Monken – OC
Lions – 27.5 – Ben Johnson – OC
Bills – 26.9 – Joe Brady – OC
Eagles – 26.1 – Brian Johnson – OC
Jaguars – 22.1 – Press Taylor – OC
Saints – 22.1 – Pete Carmichael Jr. – OC
Texans – 21.9 – Bobby Slowick – OC

Detroit’s Ben Johnson is the hottest name on the list. While he is a gifted offensive mind, does he have the charisma to lead an entire football team? Johnson turned down head coaching opportunities last year to return to Detroit this season.

Joe Brady was fired in Carolina after failing with the Panthers and landed with the Bills, where he took over the play-calling duties at midseason after Ken Dorsey was fired. Brady is not regarded around the league as a head coaching candidate yet.

Ravens OC Todd Monken – Photo by: USA Today

Likewise, Pete Carmichael Jr. has not generated much buzz as a play-caller. And at age 52, he doesn’t fit the mold of a hot, young offensive mind like Philadelphia’s Brian Johnson (36), Houston’s Bobby Slowick (36) or Jacksonville’s Press Taylor (35).

The best name on the list, especially for the Bucs, would be Baltimore offensive coordinator and play-caller Todd Monken. At age 57, he’s just three years younger than Bowles, but he’s more like Arians in terms of energy and coaching with fire and brimstone.

Monken has a bright, creative mind when it comes to play-calling and he’s done wonders with Lamar Jackson and the diverse Ravens offensive this year. Prior to coaching in Baltimore, Monken was at the University of Georgia for three seasons, where he helped guide the Bulldogs to back-to-back national championships with a walk-on quarterback in Stetson Bennett and a future NFL star at tight end in Brock Bowers.

Georgia’s balanced attack ranked ninth in scoring in 2021 with 38.6 points per game, and fifth in scoring in 2022 with 41.1 points per game. The Ravens are fourth in scoring this year, averaging 27.8 points per game.

Monken already has some familiarity with the Bucs, serving as Dirk Koetter’s receivers coach from 2016-17, and the offensive coordinator and play-caller in 2018. If Tampa Bay opted to pursue Monken and land him as a head coach, he’s obviously worked with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin before, and he even coached Baker Mayfield in Cleveland in 2019 as the Browns offensive coordinator – although head coach Freddie Kitchens called plays.

There are already three head coaching vacancies in Las Vegas, Carolina and in Los Angeles with the Chargers. New England is expected to jettison Bill Belichick, while Washington will fire Ron Rivera. Chicago’s Matt Eberflus seems destined to be fired too.

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

And both New Orleans and Atlanta could let go of Dennis Allen and Arthur Smith, respectively, if either doesn’t win the NFC South. There could be as many as eight head coaching changes in the NFL entering 2024, and Bowles could take the place of Allen or Smith if Tampa Bay finishes 8-9 and out of the postseason. So there could be quite a competition for Monken and the other offensive-minded head coaching candidates in January if the Bucs decide to make a change.

There is a risk of ruining Tampa Bay’s defense, which is full of players who have been drafted to play in Bowles’ scheme. And the Bucs also run the risk of losing Canales, who is rapidly improving, and could be a head coaching candidate in short order, although he’s probably not ready to be a head coach and a second-year play-caller at the same time in 2024.

The last thing any team wants to do with a head coaching change is to interrupt progress. The Glazers have been on both sides of the coin before.

In 2002, they fired a popular head coach in Tony Dungy and took a huge gamble in trading for Gruden, the Raiders head coach and offensive play-caller. It paid off as the Bucs went from a 9-7 team to a 12-4 squad that won Super Bowl XXXVII.

But when the Glazers fired head coach Greg Schiano after he finished 4-12 in 2013, their head coaching change backfired with Lovie Smith, who went 2-14 in 2014. The Bucs actually got worse under Smith, who finished his two years in Tampa Bay with an 8-24 record after Schiano compiled a 11-21 mark as head coach.

So the Bucs will need to tread lightly and really give some thought when it comes to Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay.

FAB 4. Here’s Hoping Devin White Plays Better – For His Sake, Bucs’ Sake

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles finally benched middle linebacker Devin White and look what happened. After missing the Packers game due to White opting out after being told K.J. Britt would start and White would rotate with him, the fifth-year linebacker responded with his best game of the year against the Jaguars.

Bucs ILB Devin White – Photo by: USA Today

White had four tackles, two pass breakups, an interception and half a sack against Jacksonville. He had another sack negated by an awful roughing the passer call, too. White’s 92.7 Pro Football Focus grade made him the highest-graded linebacker in Week 16, and it was his highest grade of the season, eclipsing his 90.7 mark in Week 1 at Minnesota.

But one game does not a season make. In fact, White is ranked as the No. 151 linebacker in the NFL out of the 173 linebackers PFF has graded this year with a 46.7 grade. By comparison, Lavonte David is ranked No. 48 with a 72.2 grade for the season.

Even if White catches fire and plays well in the last two games of the regular season and even plays well in the playoffs, he is not going to return to Tampa Bay. White has had two years of very inconsistent play and has lost the trust of the organization as a result. While he has battled different injuries at different times this season, he has woefully underperformed and showed inconsistent effort when he has been healthy.

Yet if White has a late season resurgence it will not be all for naught. Getting splash plays like sacks and interceptions would be mutually beneficial for both White and the Bucs before they part ways in the offseason. As head coach Todd Bowles correctly said this week, the Bucs are a better, faster defense when White is healthy and motivated.

“He can help us a great deal – you saw that on Sunday,” Bowles said. “Obviously, we got up early, so some of the packages [the defense] would have had where K.J. [Britt] got more time didn’t materialize. It ended up being that type of ballgame. That doesn’t mean we’re through using K.J. because we are going to use him some. A healthy Devin, a fast Devin, Devin flying around like he did Sunday, makes us a faster defense.”

And White can help change the narrative he created for himself with turning a bad start to his contract year into a strong finish. Every splash play he makes and every good rep he puts on tape down the stretch will help him earn more money elsewhere in free agency with a team that might succumb to recency bias involving White’s play.

Bucs ILB Devin White and head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Calling for a player to be benched, as Pewter Report has in the past regarding White, can be viewed as a negative, but it’s really a positive. Sometimes players need a hard reset to motivate them to play better. Sometimes players need to have the game of football taken away for a while to turn their play around and propel them to new heights.

That was the case last year with Luke Goedeke, who struggled mightily in the transition from college right tackle to NFL left guard during his rookie year. The problem with Goedeke wasn’t effort, it was just technique and execution. Facing a gauntlet of Pro Bowl defensive tackles each week was overwhelming and he needed to sit and watch Nick Leverett play at midseason to help heal a foot injury and regain some confidence without the pressure of starting.

When Goedeke re-emerged in the starting lineup, it was at right tackle in Week 18 at Atlanta where he played very good football. Goedeke’s benching led to another opportunity where he showed the team and himself that he can play right tackle in the NFL. And by the way, when the Bucs needed him back at left guard the next week in the playoffs, Goedeke shined in that role, playing his best game at that spot all year.

Benching Goedeke was the right move for Goedeke’s career, and it probably should have happened sooner than Week 8 last season. Bowles should have benched White a long time ago, probably after the Week 8 loss to the Ravens last year, which was one of White’s worst games in Tampa Bay. Who knows what a hard reset would have done for White’s career with the Bucs over the last year and half had that occurred.

Maybe we would have seen a different, better White sooner than we did last week against Jacksonville.

FAB 5. Paying Tribute To Steve Reynolds

I lost my father, Steve Reynolds, to a sudden and short battle with stage four cancer on Tuesday, December 19. He was in the hospital in late November for a heart ailment when doctors discovered several tumors just one week before he passed away. I flew up to northern Virginia to see him last Tuesday and spent the last six hours with him before he died suddenly that night.

Steve Reynolds, Scott Reynolds and family

I appreciate Dad hanging on until I got there so I could be there for him one last time. Just like he was always there for me.

I could write thousands of words about Dad, but I will keep my comments brief. I lost my mother, Judy Dunleavy, on October 20, 2020. I was a momma’s boy, and it was my mom – not necessarily my father or stepfather – who fostered my love of football. She was so passionate about the game that it rubbed off on me at an early age.

Now Dad did love football, and enjoyed reading Pewter Report (formerly known as Buccaneer Magazine) for the past 28 years since I’ve been covering the Bucs. His first love was always the Washington Redskins, and I too grew up a Redskins fan before moving to Kansas City with my mother and stepfather.

But Dad’s second team quickly became the Buccaneers in 1995 when I moved to Tampa.

Dad would come down and visit me every year during training camp and became a huge fan of Tony Dungy back in the late 1990s as a result. Toward the end of his Bucs fandom, Dad marveled as he watched his favorite NFL player, Tom Brady, finish his amazing career in Tampa Bay. Dad would come down for a Bucs game nearly every year, which was always fun for our family.

What I got from my father was a diligent work ethic and a commitment to excellence. My dad spent 28 years in education in Fairfax County public schools, first as an administrator and then over a decade as a WECEP teacher, mostly at Annandale High School. WECEP stands for Work Experience and Career Exploration Program, and was a program designed for at-risk students who would either not finish high school or likely struggle to finish, but not go on to college.

Dad helped thousands of kids through the years land and keep jobs, and even pushed hundreds of kids who weren’t likely to graduate to finish with their degrees. Even some of his students were so inspired by my father’s belief in them that they bucked the odds and graduated from college.

Steve Reynolds, Scott Reynolds and family

Dad would take me to his school once or twice a year to see him teach and meet his classes, and my father was a truly gifted teacher who was beloved by his high school students. I saw it with my own eyes.

He worked hard to ensure that his students had the foundation for their work life, helping them learn how to write a resume, interview for jobs, become good employees, progress into management, etc. Steve Reynolds was recognized more than once for his excellence in leading in the classroom by the state of Virginia.

I have modeled my work ethic after my father, and have sought to bring the same level of excellence to my profession as he did in the classroom. As a result, Pewter Report has developed into an industry leader and a media empire that offers Bucs coverage found nowhere else for millions of visitors each year.

After Dad retired, he funneled his desire to help people – his calling, really – into Kairos prison ministry and serving Annandale United Methodist Church. Working with Kairos is something that Dungy has also done since he retired from coaching in the NFL.

My father often said how proud he was of me and the successful career I have built. I was grateful to be given one last opportunity last Tuesday to tell Dad how proud of him I am for the man he became throughout his 80 years of life. And to tell him how thankful I am to him for the man I’ve become as well.

To me, Steve Reynolds was the original SR, and always will be.

I’m just trying to live up to his standard and carry on his level of excellence.