INTRO: The 2024 season finale is finally here and it’s a big game for Todd Bowles and the Bucs. A win means the team would clinch the NFC South title for the fourth year in a row and the third under Bowles. A loss could put Bowles’ position as head coach in serious jeopardy. We’ll examine that, plus dissect Liam Coen’s comments about his head coaching aspirations and explore Lavonte David’s future in Tampa Bay in the first SR’s Fab 5 column of 2025. Enjoy!

FAB 1. How Secure Is Todd Bowles’ Job With The Bucs?

If the Bucs beat the Saints on Sunday, they win a fourth straight NFC South title and the third under head coach Todd Bowles.

Bowles has been in this situation before.

Thankfully – and unfortunately.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are thankful about Bowles’ familiarity about needing a win at the end of the season to clinch the NFC South. That occurred in Week 17 against Carolina in 2022 and at Carolina last year in Week 18. Bowles’ team has proven to be clutch at the end of the season before.

Tampa Bay finished the 2022 regular season 3-3 in December and January, and 5-2 last year. The Bucs are 5-1 heading into Sunday’s game against the Saints. That’s a collective 13-6 record down the stretch.

Now let’s address the word “unfortunately.”

Unfortunately, the Bucs have had to rally because they’ve seen 3-1 starts dissolve into 4-6 records with four straight losses over the next month of football in each of the last two seasons. As much credit as Bowles gets for digging the team out of a midseason hole in each of the last two years, he also gets the blame for helping dig the hole in the first place.

Bowles enters the 2024 season finale with a 26-24 regular season record and a 1-2 mark in the postseason. Last year, I reported that he not only needed to make the playoffs as the division champions again to keep his job, but also likely needed win the home Wild Card game against Philadelphia to bolster his job security.

A one-win improvement in the regular season coupled with another home playoff loss likely wouldn’t have been enough for Bowles to stay in 2024. He needed to show the Glazers and the front office that he could win in the postseason.

Remember, the Bucs didn’t really have a coaching search when Bruce Arians abruptly retired in late March in 2022. Arians stepped down and anointed Bowles as his successor, in part because Tom Brady approved of that because Bowles was in favor of running the ball more and having a more balanced offense.

Bruce Arians and Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Glazers and general manager Jason Licht approved of Bowles’ ascension as Arians’ replacement because it meant another year of Brady, who decided to unretire in the 2022 offseason, at quarterback. Ultimately the Bucs didn’t run the ball more under pass-happy coordinator Byron Leftwich, and Bowles fired him after the team’s Wild Card playoff loss to Dallas.

Last year, the Bucs trounced Philadelphia, 32-9, in the Wild Card win at Raymond James Stadium. It also helped that it was a defensive masterpiece by Bowles.

This year, Tampa Bay will likely need to win another Wild Card home game for Bowles to remain the head coach.

Especially with his defense being the culprit in several losses this year, and hotshot offensive coordinator Liam Coen expected to get plenty of attention around the league for a few vacant head coaching positions once Black Monday occurs after Week 18 concludes. There are already three head coaching vacancies in New Orleans, Chicago and with the New York Jets, and there could be as many as eight more openings come Monday.

Here’s what Bucs co-chairman Joel Glazer said about the expectations for this year’s team back in March at the NFL Annual Meeting.

“We’re going to build off last year and we’re looking forward to this year,” Glazer said. “We’ve got a lot of key pieces – our key players back. So, we’re looking forward to this year.

“Frankly, when we had that dip (to 4-7 in 2023), when you look at those games, they were relatively close games. So, it wasn’t as if the performance had completely dropped off. Sometimes things aren’t going your way. The team fought through it and is heading in the right direction. When the turnaround came it made it even more exciting. It was a lot of fun. But we didn’t get as far as we wanted to. Our goals are always higher and we’re looking to build this year.”

Bucs GM Jason Licht, co-owners Darcie Glazer Kassewitz and Joel Glazer, head coach Todd Bowles and senior football consultant Bruce Arians – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

To me, “build” means “improve.”

Winning one more regular season game to get to 10 wins would be a sign of improvement, especially if it comes with another NFC South title, which would be the case this year. But a home playoff loss to the Vikings, Lions, Packers or Commanders would not be an improvement. So once again, I believe that for Bowles’ job to be safe, he needs to get that 10th win and get to the Divisional round of the playoffs once more to be back in 2025.

Firing the only head coach to win the division three times in his first three seasons, as Bowles has done, seems like a ridiculous notion.

But it’s one thing to be the 14-2 Lions or the 14-2 Vikings and have the division title come down to Week 18 or be the 13-3 Eagles and clinch the NFC East division a few weeks ago. It’s another thing to win the worst division in football with eight wins in 2022 and nine wins in 2023.

If Tampa Bay were to get upset by New Orleans on Sunday, I don’t see how Bowles could survive that, especially if Atlanta beats Carolina and wins the NFC South. Should that occur, the Bucs would have surrendered the division to the Falcons three times this year.

The first was losing at home to Atlanta and getting swept by the Falcons in Week 8. It happened again with an upset in Dallas in Week 16, and under this scenario, it would have happened with a “win-and-they’re-in” situation in Week 18 versus 5-11 New Orleans.

Even if the Bucs backed into the playoffs as division champions by losing to the Saints and having the 4-12 Panthers upset the Falcons, Bowles would be 9-8 once again this season despite the NFC South title, and that’s not necessarily progress – unless Tampa Bay advances to the NFC Championship Game.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So there’s a lot riding on Sunday’s game against the Saints for Todd Bowles. And remember that New Orleans is 5-1 in its last six games at Raymond James Stadium ,where it’s won with an interim head coach and a backup quarterback before. Spencer Rattler and the Saints actually had a 27-24 lead at halftime of the first meeting earlier this season.

On paper, this game should be a repeat of last week’s 48-14 triumph over Carolina, or perhaps another 51-27 victory like the team had in New Orleans in Week 6. But throw everything out when the Saints play in Ray-Jay. All the Bucs had to do to clinch the division last year was beat the Saints at home in Week 17. Instead, New Orleans raced out to a 23-0 lead and won, 23-13.

The stakes will be incredibly high on Sunday. I don’t think Bowles could survive losing to the Cowboys and Saints down the stretch. But even with a victory, there will still be more work to do in the playoffs.

FAB 2. Dissecting Liam Coen’s Comments About His Future In Tampa Bay

Bucs OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen has been asked about his head coaching aspirations before, and essentially blew off the question by saying he’s so focused on the week-to-week, day-to-day preparations for the team’s upcoming opponents.

But with the end of the 2024 season upon us and interview requests for Coen from other teams for their head coaching positions likely just weeks away, Tampa Bay’s talented play-caller was asked about it again on Thursday.

“I mean, last week, when you go out into the field and you play that game, which we were hoping our guys would come out and play the way they did, right? We come off the Dallas game – everybody’s not thrilled, and you go out and do that,” Coen said about the Bucs’ 48-14 drubbing of Carolina in which quarterback Bake Mayfield threw a season-high five touchdown passes. “That was one of the best Sundays I’ve had in a long time, man. And I wasn’t thinking about anything else besides this.

“So really, at the end of the day, that stuff can wait a long time if it’s the right thing. And for us to keep moving forward doing the right things, we can wait a long time on that one.”

Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who calls plays for the league’s top-scoring offense, has been a hot coaching candidate for the past two seasons but has opted to stay with the Lions to try to win a Super Bowl instead. After just missing the playoffs in 2022, Detroit made it to the NFC Championship Game last year and the team has won a franchise-record 14 games this season.

So perhaps Coen is drawing some parallels to Johnson’s situation where the Lions O.C. has waited for the right time and the right situation to become a head coach. Rumors suggest Johnson wants the Chicago head coaching job and the opportunity to work with the 2024 No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams.

Former Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Adam Slivon/PR

But Coen’s predecessor, Dave Canales, became Carolina’s head coach this year after just one season as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator. Prior to accepting the Panthers job, Canales indicated he wanted to remain the Bucs’ play-caller in a January 12 press conference – just two weeks before he took over in Carolina.

“I’d love to be in Tampa for a long time,” Canales said nearly a year ago. “I know whatever our plans are for the future, Baker has been unbelievable. For whatever job I may get credited for – Baker, the belief in himself, the ability to bring a team together to grow, to continue to own his growth and own his mistakes. I just love that kind of guy. I love being around him.”

The Bucs and their fan base have heard this kind of talk before. So I followed up on Coen’s comments during Thursday’s presser to see if he had head coaching aspirations and even thought he was ready to become a head coach after just one year as an NFL play-caller.

“Yeah, I do believe I’m ready to do so,” Coen answered. “I don’t think you’re ever truly fully ready, but yeah, that is a dream. Does that need to happen when I’m 39 years old and having probably the most fun of my life coaching and working and being here? No, that doesn’t mean that needs to occur right now. But yeah, that is the goal. That is absolutely the goal. But like I said before, that goal can hold off for a while here and continue to do what we’re doing. That would be pretty special.”

If Coen were to get interview requests, and I think he will, I expect him to explore those opportunities. There’s no harm in doing so, even if Coen wants to be like Johnson and stick with a high-powered offense for another year or so. The experience Coen can gain from those interviews will only help him in the future.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: USA Today

But there could be some potential peril as I explained in last week’s SR’s Fab 5 column. If the Patriots move on from Jerod Mayo, that could be a very attractive situation that could lure Coen back home to New England as he grew up in Rhode Island as a Tom Brady fan and played college football at UMass. The Patriots already have a young quarterback in place with Drake Maye, this year’s first-round pick, plus the most cap room in the league with $131.5 million.

Speaking of Brady, he’s a minority owner of the Raiders and has already called two Tampa Bay games for Fox this year. He’s also calling Sunday’s Bucs game against the Saints and is a big fan of Coen’s play-calling. Should Brady make a sales pitch for the Raiders head coaching job should the team fire Antonio Pierce, Coen would have to consider the Las Vegas situation. Especially since the Raiders are looking to draft a quarterback in the Top 5 and have the second-most cap room with $108.2 million.

Of course, Coen might be intrigued by the thought of staying in Tampa Bay as Todd Bowles’ eventual successor. Bowles turned 61 this year and Coen already has one of the best quarterbacks in the league in his prime in Mayfield, a pair of stud receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin plus an emerging target in Jalen McMillan, one of the best young offensive lines in the NFL, and a stable of running backs that is the envy of the league.

His system has already proven to be successful with this cast, and the Bucs have a Super Bowl-ready offense. It could take years to build what he already has Tampa Bay elsewhere, and time might run out before he completes that mission if ownership – in New England or Las Vegas or wherever – gets impatient.

Coen could – and should – leverage his situation as a hot head coaching candidate to become the league’s top-paid offensive coordinator and agree to stick around Tampa Bay.

Then, Bucs fans could release a massive, collective sigh of relief in 2025.

FAB 3. Could Sunday Be Lavonte David’s Last Game In Red And Pewter?

Bucs ILB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I’m not trying to be negative by insinuating that Tampa Bay could lose to a 5-12 New Orleans team in the 2024 season finale. But the phrase “any given Sunday” exists for a reason.

If the Bucs’ season abruptly ends with an unkind result, it could be the last game legendary linebacker Lavonte David suits up for in red and pewter. David, who is a surefire Bucs Ring of Honor inductee and potential Hall of Famer, is the second-best linebacker in Tampa Bay history behind only Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks.

Father Time is catching up to David, who turns 35 on January 23. While still good enough to be a Pro Bowl alternate this year, David’s Pro Football Focus grade has slipped this season to 67.3. It was 72.3 last year and 85.1 back in 2022.

David’s tackling grade per PFF is a career-low 41.5, as is his coverage grade of 57.9 this season. What has David been known for in his illustrious 13-year career in Tampa Bay? Tackling and coverage.

David’s missed tackle rate per PFF is a career-high 17.1%. It was just 7.2% last year, and that’s a clear indicator that David has lost a step to age and can’t finish tackles. That’s no knock on the legendary defender. The same thing happened to Brooks in his final season in 2008 at age 35. No NFL player can truly outrace Father Time.

The Bucs have had trouble defending the pass over the middle all season, and David’s slip in pass coverage has played a role in that. Does the team want to bring back a slower version of David in 2025 at age 35? Is that going to help the team’s coverage woes in the middle of the field?

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and Chargers WR Ladd McConkey – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has re-signed David to one-year deals twice now. First in 2023 for a deal that eventually earned $7.325 million, and this year in season that will pay David $8.5 million.

It would be hard to justify paying David between $7 million and $8.5 million next year as his play declines. And if he’s re-signed for close to that amount the expectation would be that he would once again be a starter – not a part-time player.

A lot might depend on who the head coach is in 2025. If it’s Todd Bowles, then David might consider returning because of their relationship and his knowledge of Bowles’ scheme. But a new head coach and a new defensive coordinator might want a younger, faster linebacker to pair next to SirVocea Dennis next season. Even if Liam Coen takes over for Bowles in the offseason, his first up-close look at the veteran linebacker has been at the 34-year old version of David.

There will be a big decision to make between David and the team come March about his future in Tampa Bay. Let’s just hope that his last game at Ray-Jay isn’t on Sunday and that the team at least has a home playoff game the following week. It took David nine years to finally make the playoffs in Tampa Bay. He deserves to potentially go out on another Bucs playoff team.

FAB 4. Shaq Barrett’s Return To The Bucs Has Already Made An Impact

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

On Thursday, Bucs co-defensive coordinator Larry Foote said what I was thinking.

That even in street clothes in Sunday’s 48-14 win over the Panthers, Shaq Barrett was already making his presence felt.

“Well, he’s already having impact,” Foote said. “I’ve been joking with the outside linebackers, ‘Shaq back, and you guys lit up the sack board last week.’ But it’s just good to see him out there, just veteran presence. Young guys are going to learn a lot from him, but it’s good seeing him out there.

“[He’s] still kind of getting used to the No. 56, I know a couple years – the No. 58 isn’t too far off. I said, ‘Who’s the most famous No. 56?’ He did know who Lawrence Taylor was.”

No one is expecting Barrett, who will put pads on for the first time this season on Sunday, to be Lawrence Taylor. No one is expecting Barrett to even be the old Shaq Barrett, who made the Pro Bowl twice, helped win Super Bowl LV, and set the single-season sack record in Tampa Bay in 2019 with 19.5 sacks.

The Bucs are just hoping he still has that quick first step that allowed Barrett to record 45 sacks in the regular season in his five years in Tampa Bay. Barrett’s former teammate, future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski, hopes that is the case, as he said on a recent appearance of Up And Adams.

“I love Shaq Barrett, and what he brings to the team is pressure on the quarterback being on the defensive side of the ball,” Gronkowski said. “His first step in getting off the line of scrimmage is lethal. That’s where his strongest suit is – is being able to get past that offensive tackle and pressure the quarterback and make him struggle back there in the pocket. It’s just cool to see, I love Shaq Barrett. I’m rooting for Shaq.

Ex-Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and Saints QB Derek Carr – Photo by: USA Today

“I actually got to sit with him in the suite for the first quarter of the game when I was at the Monday Night Football game in Tampa. He’s just a great guy overall and I’m cheering for him. I’m hoping that when he retired last year he’s exactly where he left off when he retired. Hopefully he’s been training and he has that first step ready to go because he can definitely help out the Tampa Bay Bucs.”

Barrett will either be incredibly rusty and might not have that first lethal step anymore at age 32. Or he could be totally fresh and as fast as ever two years removed from his torn Achilles tendon without the wear and tear of playing this season.

Whether it’s as a situational pass rusher or a mentor, there are different ways that Barrett can help a Bucs outside linebacker room that has largely underwhelmed this season. Reserve Anthony Nelson leads the unit with four sacks, followed by Yaya Diaby, who has 3.5 sacks after leading the team with 7.5 last year as a rookie.

Wouldn’t it be something to see Barrett get to the quarterback on Sunday? It could be just like old times in Tampa Bay.

FAB 5. Bucs’ 2021 Draft Class Could Be A Wipeout In 2025

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Broncos QB Bo Nix – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The end of the 2024 season could mean the end of the careers of several Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. The remainder of the team’s 2021 draft class is slated to hit free agency in the offseason and there’s a chance that none of those players are back with the Bucs in 2022.

Tampa Bay is expected to move on from former first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka in 2025. The outside linebacker was the first Jason Licht first-round draft pick to not have his fifth-year option picked up. Todd Bowles loves JTS’ athleticism and versatility, but finally has come to his senses that he’s a finesse player who is better off as a reserve outside linebacker.

Tryon-Shoyinka has had a career-low two sacks this year and has lost his starting job to Anthony Nelson. The Bucs also drafted his replacement this year in second-rounder Chris Braswell, who has 1.5 sacks as a rookie.

Backup quarterback Kyle Trask, the team’s second-round pick in 2021, could leave to go elsewhere in free agency. He’s hardly played because Tom Brady started every game at quarterback and Baker Mayfield has followed suit over the last two years. He could be back on a cheap, one-year deal because there’s not much film on him outside of the preseason, or he could look for a fresh start elsewhere.

Robert Hainsey, the team’s third-round pick in 2021, has been supplanted at center by first-rounder Graham Barton. The Bucs would love to have him back as a backup due to his experience, and Hainsey is close friends with Baker Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs and other offensive linemen, which could help in that regard.

Bucs C Robert Hainsey – Photo by: USA Today

But with two years worth of starting experience under his belt in 2022-23, the 26-year old Hainsey could find a starting job with another team in 2025 and make more money by leaving Tampa Bay.

K.J. Britt, Tampa Bay’s fifth-round pick that year, began the year as the starting inside linebacker, but has lost it to reserve J.J. Russell at season’s end. Britt struggles mightily in coverage and likely won’t be back in Tampa Bay, as he’s not a starting-caliber linebacker. Bowles loves Britt’s football I.Q. and intensity, but the front office will seek his replacement in free agency and the draft in 2025.

It could be a total wipeout for the Bucs’ 2021 draft class, which has largely underwhelmed. That draft class isn’t as bad as the 2016 class was, but thankfully Licht and Co. learned some lessons from 2021 and have had three stellar drafts since then.