Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Jeffrey Jones/PR

It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. Tampa Bay dropped its third straight game, losing 30-24 in overtime at Kansas City on Monday Night Football. The Bucs have now lost four of their last five games and have slipped below .500 for the first time this season.

Tampa Bay had the chance to go for the win at the end of the game with a two-point conversion, but head coach Todd Bowles opted to tie the game and head to overtime where Kansas City won the toss and the Chiefs won the game.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Todd Bowles Is Coaching Himself Out Of A Job

Todd Bowles should have gone for a two-point conversion to try to beat the undefeated Chiefs on the road in the rain on Monday Night Football, right?

It’s better to give your team the best chance to win and try to go for the throat – the knockout blow – against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with a two-point conversion. If it fails, it’s a more heroic and acceptable way to lose than what happened at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night as Tampa Bay fell to 4-5 on the season, losing its third straight game, 30-24 in overtime.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Instead, Bowles took the ball out of the hands of his $100 million quarterback who just drove 81 yards down the field in 10 plays to score a touchdown and pull within 24-23 with 27 seconds left. For some inexplicable reason, Bowles had faith that his defense could actually stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense with the game on the line in overtime.

This, despite the fact that Mahomes had engineered two long touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to take a 24-17 lead with just over four minutes left in the game. The first drive started with 5:50 left in the third quarter and covered 70 yards in 12 plays and took 6:36 off the clock. The second scoring drive, which resulted in Kansas City retaking the lead, spanned 73 yards in 15 plays and consumed 8:26 off the clock.

So out of the last 21 minutes of regulation, Kansas City had four possessions that allowed Mahomes and the offense to roughly hold a 16-minute time of possession advantage.

Todd Bowles’ defense was gassed at the end of the game.

Yes, the Bucs did force a quick three-and-out with 2:16 when the Chiefs were simply trying to run the clock out with the lead. That stop, which was aided by a dropped pass on third down, allowed Tampa Bay’s offense to drive down for its final touchdown.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs defense also forced a three-and-out with 27 seconds left. But overall, Kansas City had run 73 plays to Tampa Bay’s 52 plays in regulation. One would think Bowles would have recognized that and not wanted to run the risk of his fatigued defense having to stop Mahomes in overtime and just try to end the game with a two-point conversion.

One would also think Bowles would have known that his defense hadn’t stopped Kansas City all night on third down, allowing the Chiefs to convert 12-of-18 third downs – a wretched 66.7% – in the game with five of those coming on third-and-6 or more.

Instead, the arrogance and misplaced belief of a defensive-minded head coach, who is also the defensive play-caller, reared its ugly again with way too much faith in a bad Bucs defense that has now allowed 30 points or more to opponents in each of the last four losses.

We’ve seen this scenario pop up too often over the past two and a half years that Bowles has been the head coach in Tampa Bay, haven’t we?

He should know better by now, but Todd Bowles doesn’t know how to read the room.

Like a stand-up comedian who tells a bad joke that bombs with a certain audience – and then tells another similar bad joke that bombs again – Bowles keeps misreading game situations – often involving the play of his defense – and then makes poor game management decisions as a result.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

And like the audience that is there to see the stand-up routine and have a good time, no one is laughing. Instead, it’s sad that the Bucs defense has actually become a joke under Bowles.

Bowles’ other game management blunder was scoring too quickly at the end of the game. Bowles hurriedly called a timeout after Trey Palmer’s catch down to the 1-yard with 33 seconds left. When Tampa Bay scored a touchdown two plays, Mahomes still had 27 seconds left on the clock and all three timeouts left to try to kick a game-winning field goal.

What Bowles needs to understand is that the offense – despite being without its top three receivers on Monday night – is actually the strength of this year’s Bucs team behind the creative play-calling of Liam Coen and quarterback play of Baker Mayfield, who did what he needed to do in throwing two touchdowns and not throwing an interception in Kansas City.

Bowles needed to recognize that with 27 seconds left and give Mayfield a shot to win the game rather than tie it up and hope for overtime. But once again, the inability of Bowles’ defense to prevent teams from scoring 30 points or more, coupled with his flawed game management decision-making resulted in another Bucs loss.

Throw in Bowles’ befuddling, cockamamie excuse about wet conditions being a factor for the reason for actually wanting to send the game into overtime and it’s clear that Bowles is coaching himself out of a job with this type of faulty game management.

STATEMENT 2. Bucs Defense Should Be Better Than It Is

When rookie wide receiver Jalen McMillan “couldn’t go” because of a hamstring strain (more on that later), Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield was left without his top three targets in the passing game. Chris Godwin is out for the year with a dislocated ankle. Mike Evans is out through the bye week with a severe hamstring injury. And now McMillan was missing his third game this season due to his own hamstring injury.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

So Mayfield had to take on the league’s Top 5 total defense and scoring defense in Kansas City with a receiving corps that consisted of Sterling Shepard, Rakim Jarrett, Trey Palmer, Ryan Miller and newcomer Marquez Callaway, who was elevated from the practice squad. That unremarkable group, in addition to tight end Cade Otton and running backs Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, still put up 24 points for a second straight game.

That’s a remarkable achievement for new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, whose offense continues to convert on third downs 51.8% of the time, which ranks second in the NFL.

It’s quite stunning that despite being depleted of weapons, the offense is the strength of this Tampa Bay team. The Bucs defense should be better than it is. Tampa Bay’s defense has a pair of first-round defensive tackles in Vita Vea, who had a career-high 10 tackles against Kansas City, and Calijah Kancey. They each had two sacks against Patrick Mahomes. I’m still a believer in outside linebacker Yaya Diaby, but he needs better coaching, as does second-round pick Chris Braswell, who is far too young to give up on.

Tampa Bay’s secondary has one of the league’s top cover cornerbacks in Zyon McCollum, the highest-paid safety in All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr., who does need to play better this season, in addition to a very promising play-making rookie nickelback in Tykee Smith. Cornerback Jamel Dean is a quality starter when focused and healthy, which has been an issue.

Bucs NCB Tykee Smith and Chiefs TE Travis Kelce – Photo by: USA Today

Throw in linebacker SirVocea Dennis, who showed a bunch of promise as a playmaker before his season-ending shoulder injury, and that’s nine solid building blocks for any defense in the league. Sure, linebacker Lavonte David is running out of gas at age 34, and I have no idea why or how Jordan Whitehead has dissolved into being a very bad safety all of a sudden, but there is still plenty of talent on Tampa Bay’s defense.

Todd Bowels’ defense shouldn’t be this bad, and I think more of the problems stem from poor coaching rather than a lack of talent. And as a result, the Bucs’ record shouldn’t be this bad. Tampa Bay should have at least split with Atlanta and had a real chance to knock the Chiefs from the unbeaten ranks in Kansas City. With a halfway decent defense, it feels like the Bucs should be 6-3 instead of 4-5.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Why Aren’t The Bucs Making Any Trades To Help The Team?

Bucs general manager Jason Licht has decided not to make any in-season trades, so there is no lifeline for Todd Bowles. He’s coached his way into this mess with a three-game losing streak, and he’ll have to try to coach his way out of this mess like he was able to do last year.

Bucs GM Jason Licht, HC Todd Bowles and OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I don’t blame the front office for standing pat and letting this season play out. They have to be thinking the same thing that you and I are realizing – Todd Bowles just doesn’t appear to have the effective game management ability to lead this team to the Super Bowl and win it. And adding a player here or there down the stretch is not going to help Bowles’ coaching ability when it comes to his defense nor will it suddenly make him a better in-game manager.

And that’s the real problem.

For two years in a row now, we’ve seen Bowles’ Bucs squander a 3-1 start as a midseason slide commences. Then it takes a furious rally at the end just to try to make the playoffs.

The hope was that Bowles could start the season hot and just go on a run the way Tony Dungy’s Bucs did in 1997 with a 5-0 start, Jon Gruden’s Tampa Bay team did in 2002 with a 5-1 start, or Bruce Arians’ 2021 team did with a 6-1 start to build some momentum en route to the playoffs. Instead this is becoming lather, rinse, repeat in Tampa Bay.

The mandate for Bowles was that he show progress over nine wins and a playoff victory last year. The way he’s going, that may not happen. So why would Licht want to trade precious draft capital that a potential new head coach might want for a player who might not fit his new scheme in 2025?

QUESTION 2. How Are The Bucs’ Playoff Chances Impacted After 3 Straight Losses?

Tampa Bay is certainly going in the wrong direction. Another promising 3-1 start has dissolved into a 4-5 record with Tampa Bay’s third straight loss. Last year, the Bucs fell to 4-7 before winning five of their last six games to rally and win the NFC South division with a 9-8 record. With a big home game against the 4-4 49ers looming on Sunday, it feels like Tampa Bay could be 4-6 heading into the bye week.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts and Bucs SS Kaevon Merriweather – Photo by: USA Today

The problem for the Bucs is that the Falcons improved to 6-3 with a win over the Cowboys. Atlanta now has a two-game lead over Tampa Bay, plus the head-to-head tiebreaker. So the Bucs are essentially three games behind the Falcons. The Bucs just about need to win out and hope for a Falcons collapse to have any chance of winning the division now.

So that means the Bucs are in the scramble for one of three wild card spots. The NFC North is the strongest division in football with the 7-1 Lions on top, followed by the 6-2 Vikings and the 6-3 Packers. Even the Bears have a better record at 4-4. It feels like one or two wild card teams will certainly come from this division.

The NFC East is top heavy with the 7-2 Commanders followed by the 6-2 Eagles. Tampa Bay has beaten both teams, so that helps with head-to-head tiebreakers – if the Bucs can match the win total of the NFC East non-division winner.

The NFC West is a jumbled mess of mediocrity right now. The Cardinals are actually on top at 5-4 with the Rams and 49ers at 4-4 and the Seahawks at 4-5.

Even at 4-6, the Bucs aren’t finished for a wild card spot and aren’t even out of mathematically winning the division. But it means Tampa Bay must likely win 10 games to put itself in position to hopefully make the playoffs as perhaps the final wild card team. I’m not sure a 9-8 record makes the postseason this year.

That means Tampa Bay must finish 6-1 down the stretch to get to 10-7, or get an improbable win versus San Francisco to get to 5-5 heading into the bye and then finishing no worse than 5-2 after the bye. Impossible? No, but it certainly seems improbable the way the Bucs are playing right now, doesn’t it?

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Will Lose To The 49ers

Bucs HC Todd Bowles and 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs should be able to take advantage of a banged up 49ers team that isn’t playing great football this year after representing the NFC in the Super Bowl last year. But Kyle Shanahan is the head coach and offensive play-caller in San Francisco and Todd Bowles is not going to out-coach him. Did Bowles out-coach Andy Reid on Monday night in Kansas City? No, he didn’t.

The Bucs have lost at San Francisco 35-7 and 27-14 in each of the last two years. Tampa Bay has been outscored 63-21, and I don’t necessarily think a change of venue is going to help out too much. Bowles’ defense was actually playing better in those meetings in 2022 and 2023 than it is right now. So I’m not hopeful that the Bucs defense can stop a 49ers offense that still has Brock Purdy at quarterback, George Kittle at tight end, Deebo Samuel at wide receiver – even without Brandon Aiyuk, who is out for the year with a knee injury.

Oh, and the 49ers are expected to have Christian McCaffrey back on Sunday and are coming off a bye week where they got healthier and had extra time to prepare for the Bucs, who will be playing on a short week. No, that’s a not a recipe for success for Tampa Bay.

PREDICTION 2. Tampa Bay Will Tumble Twice After The Bye

Panthers head coach Dave Canales – Photo by: USA Today

Should the Bucs enter the bye week 4-6, as I suspect they will, the math says that the team needs to go 6-1 down the stretch to finish 10-7. Only then will Tampa Bay likely have a chance at making the playoffs. Yet a wild card berth is not assured even with 10 wins, and could come down to some tiebreakers.

After the bye week, the Bucs have a favorable schedule with only one team – the 5-3 Chargers – currently possessing a winning record. In a recent Pewter Pulse video, I noted that help was on the way for Tampa Bay in the form of a supposed easier schedule. A loss in Los Angeles seems likely, but I also predict the Bucs will lose another game – a game they should win.

Could it be in primetime at Dallas? Will it be at Carolina, a place the Bucs lost under Todd Bowles in 2022 by a score of 21-3 – even with Tom Brady at quarterback? Or will the Saints play spoilers and extract some revenge on the Bucs for an early season loss in New Orleans with an upset in Tampa Bay in Week 18? Missing the playoffs with this roster should prompt a change at head coach, especially if the Bucs lost to Dave Canales and the woeful Panthers, or the Saints in the season finale if a trip to the postseason is on the line.