Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has got to learn this is not 1994.

This is not 2004.

This is not 2014.

This is 2024.

And in 2024 football decision-making is more evolved than ever before. Gone are the days of three yards and a cloud of dust, and so too the days of every fourth down outside of the two-minute warning being auto punt/kick calls and “play for overtime” and “trust your defense” should be gone.

But for Bowles, the conservative approach is the safe approach.

Last week he bucked the trend with a fake punt call that eschewed a relatively successful offense for a gimmick. I didn’t hate the aggressiveness, but the idea that a fake punt had a higher probability of success than letting an extremely talented offensive coordinator like Liam Coen leading a very good offense try to get just a few yards.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: USA Today

On Monday night in a 30-24 overtime loss in Kansas City against an undefeated Chiefs team the Bucs played it safe in two late game situations. The first will be overlooked in the grand scheme of things but stood out to me in particular.

With 12:49 left in the fourth quarter and with the game tied at 17-17, the Bucs faced fourth-and-2 from their own 38. It would have been an extremely gutsy and aggressive play for Bowles to opt to try and get the first down. I will readily admit it. But the game was slipping from Tampa Bay.

Bowles’ defense had just allowed Kansas City to score a touchdown to tie the game on a 12-play, 70-yard drive that chewed up 6:36, and Tampa Bay was about to square off with one of the greatest fourth quarter/overtime quarterbacks in the history of the NFL on his home turf with a defense that was gassing out.

The aggressive play could have backfired. The Bucs offense could have failed to convert and handed the Chiefs the ball with a short field to score. Instead, Bowles opted to punt.

I try to not be a hindsight evaluator, and I called for the Bucs to go for it at the time, but for what it is worth, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive. Part of the reason they scored a touchdown is because they were aggressive in a similar situation, going for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 46.

Eight-yard difference in field position. One-yard difference in needed yardage. A world of difference in mindset.

Miraculously though the Bucs were able to create some late-game heroics with the defense getting a stop later and setting up the offense for a late-game drive that they converted for a touchdown themselves. And with 30 seconds left in the game, Baker Mayfield found Ryan Miller for a one-yard touchdown to make the score 24-23 with Kansas City in the lead.

What Would You Have Done If You Were Bucs Head Coach Todd Bowles?

Here lied the second pivotal decision for Todd Bowles and the Bucs. Kick the extra point, hope your defense doesn’t allow Patrick Mahomes to get into field goal range with 30 seconds left and three timeouts.

Or be bold.

Understand that as a road underdog every extra second works against your chances of winning and play to put pressure on your opponent.

Bowles opted for the safe play. And he was wrong.

For those wondering, Mahomes is 5-0 in OT in the regular season* per FOX Sports Research

— Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV) November 5, 2024

That stat does not include the 2021 Divisional Round overtime victory over the Bills, which would make Mahomes 6-0. The Bucs had just lost an overtime game last month to the Falcons without getting their offense on the field. There was too high a probability that could happen again if Tampa Bay lost the coin toss, which it did.

Instead, Bowles trusted his gassed defense to get a stop in overtime. That probably wasn’t going to happen – and ultimately didn’t happen.

Kansas City drove 70 yards in 10 plays in 5:52 left to score the game-winning touchdown as offensive coordinator Liam Coen and quarterback Baker Mayfield watched helplessly from the sideline.

NFL Network’s Jeff Darlington said it best.

The Bucs had 3 possibilities vs. the Chiefs:

1️⃣ Go for 2 after the TD & decide the game right there.

2️⃣ Win the coin toss & be forced to drive the whole field for a TD.

3️⃣ Lose the coin toss & give the best QB in the world the ball on home turf.

Only one choice made sense.

— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) November 5, 2024

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. and Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt – Photo by: USA Today

Coach aggressively. Coach to win.

Trust the one part of your team that has been fairly consistent, even in the face of extremely insurmountable odds.

The Bucs didn’t do that on Monday night in a 30-24 loss to the still undefeated Chiefs.

The results were predictable, and now Tampa Bay is 4-5.

It’s not 1994. The Bucs need thinkers who are willing to adapt to the times. I hope that is Todd Bowles, but we’ve seen this too many times to know it’s probably not going to be him.

The season isn’t over. The schedule gets much easier after Sunday’s game versus the 49ers.

But it will require aggression to get the Bucs back into the playoffs by season’s end. I hope they rise to the occasion.