It has become easy and commonplace to blame Todd Bowles for the troubles the Bucs have experienced this year. Afterall, they are 23rd in scoring defense, 28th in yards allowed per game and 24th in epa/play. Those aren’t exactly the numbers you would expect from a team led by a defensive-minded head coach.

And it has been frustrating as much of the defense’s struggles have been in areas that have traditionally plagued them. Middle of the field access, soft zone coverage and poor tackling have been discussed ad nauseum this year.

But the Bucs defense has been better since exiting its Week 11 bye. Tampa Bay deserves credit for that.

And the Bucs deserve more credit when you consider that success has come with a revolving door of back-end play due to a relentless string of injuries. And while I acknowledge the competition has been some of the worst offenses in the NFL, Tampa Bay’s defense has been able to rank third in epa/play allowed and 12th in success rate allowed. The grand result is holding those three opponents to an average of 14.3 points per game.

I am skeptical to think this is indicative of a go-forward change that will propel the team through the playoffs while attempting to shut down high-powered offenses like Minnesota, Green Bay or Detroit. But it isn’t for lack of trying on Bowles’ part.

If you think this is the “same old Todd Bowles” you haven’t been paying attention.

Todd Bowles’ Defense Has Changed Over The Years

Bucs CB Jamel Dean, FS Antoine Winfield Jr. and OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

If you were to conceptualize a “traditional” Todd Bowles defense what are some of the hallmarks you would use to describe it?

Blitz-heavy and Cover 3 would be the two staples.

And while those things remain large parts of his philosophy, he isn’t so adherent to them that he is immune from change. Over the past two to three years sim pressures and “creepers” have become all the rage in the NFL. The goal with these types of rush strategies is to still keep seven players in coverage and try to get to the quarterback with four rushers.

But the wrinkle is that the four rushers coming are not going to all be traditional down linemen. Someone, most often an edge rusher, is going to drop into a shallow zone. Meanwhile an off-ball linebacker or defensive back is going to rush, usually from depth in an effort to catch the offensive line’s protection off-guard.

When properly executed you will often see the offensive line commit too many resources to blocking one side of the line while a free rusher engulfs the quarterback from the opposite side. The most high-profile defense to employ this strategy to great success last year was the Baltimore Ravens. They were so good at it; their defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald used it to launch himself into a head coaching position with the Seahawks.

Now several teams throughout the NFL are using sim pressures to try and confuse offenses, get unblocked rushers, and force quarterbacks to make quick throws while abandoning any hope for deep developing shot plays.

And do you know who is using these trendy, defensive solutions? Todd Bowles is.

Bucs getting pressure with four through a creeper. This hit multiple times vs Vegas on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/Zwy4wvMOjZ

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) December 10, 2024

Coverage Evolution

And Todd Bowles has followed other league-wide trends on the back-end as well. Where he used to be a heavy Cover 3 scheme with some Cover sprinkled in, he has followed many effective defenses over the past 3-4 years in increasing his rate of Quarters, or Cover 4. One could actually argue the Bowles was the person who ushered in the era of Quarters. While Vic Fangio had popularized it to a degree prior, it was Bowles who implemented it so effectively in Super Bowl LV that the rest of the NFL changed to a two-high structure against Mahomes the following year, eventually moving to it as a pre-snap look more often than not as a league-wide shift.

And while Bowles has received a healthy dose of upheaval regarding the lack of man coverage he deploys, the league is still a predominantly zone coverage league. Over half the league runs man coverage at less than a 30% clip. The difference between the Bucs’ man coverage rate, which ranks 31st in the NFL, and that of the 20th ranked team is just 7%. And Bowles is not opposed to going to man coverage more. He increased his rate about 5% in this past week against the Raiders.

Piecing Together Lineups

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The injuries to Tampa Bay’s defense have been a killer this year. The team was high on linebacker SirVocea Dennis as a long-and-late coverage option. And through the first few weeks of the season, it looked like he would be able to help them be at least competent enough to compliment a high-scoring offense.

But after Dennis was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury, Todd Bowles struggled to adjust, as he kept running K.J. Britt on the field despite his extensive struggles in coverage. Part of that could have been due to injuries suffered by free safety Antoine Winfield Jr., nickelback Tykee Smith and strong safety Jordan Whitehead.

But it’s been clear as of late that Bowles has wanted to get to dime looks where he has six defensive backs on the field to help in coverage. But the team cannot maintain four healthy safeties for an entire game to see what that could look like in action. But that hasn’t stopped Bowles from getting creative.

This past week he brought a new wrinkle to his defense. One where he eschewed the typical two or three linebacker personnel groupings and went with a five-man front nickel package. This grouping featured three interior defensive linemen with two outside linebackers as a pass rush front. Behind that he paired linebacker Lavonte David with five defensive backs. This gave him his best foot forward in terms of pass rush as well as back-end coverage.

Bowles was asked about those packages, and he discussed how he came to them.

“Smoke and mirrors [laughs], smoke and mirrors,” Bowles said. “We have a couple packages that were kind of unorthodox that we’ve been practicing. The safeties do a good job filling in at linebacker. [The Raiders] had a very good tight end as well, so we had to cover him and then we had to try to stop the run with that same package and I thought between ‘Izzy’ (Christian Izien), [Kaevon] Merriweather, Tykee, Tavierre [Thomas] – they did a very good job covering up and making those plays. When Vi [Jones] came in, he played well as well.”

What To Expect For The Rest Of The Season From Todd Bowles’ Defense

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Todd Bowles’ defense has struggled mightily this year for a myriad of reasons. Some of those can be tied back to him with personnel usage or playing too much soft zone coverage and not properly defending the middle of the field, while other elements have been beyond his control, such as the injury bug that has been biting Tampa Bay since Week 1.

But when you take a step back and look at things from 30,000 feet you can see that Bowles is trying to pull every possible lever to get his defense into championship form as the team ramps up for a playoff push. Expect some marginal improvements as the team comes down the stretch.

And give Bowles credit for trying to find solutions while working around problems that really come down to lack of depth at linebacker and a historic run of injuries at safety.