It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

Todd Bowles and his Buccaneers demolished the Eagles, 32-9, on Monday night in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Tampa Bay exacted some revenge on Philadelphia from the Eagles’ 25-11 win at Raymond James Stadium in Week 3. After the Bucs allowed 201 rushing yards back in September, head coach Todd Bowles and his defense held the Eagles’ ground game to just 42 yards on 15 carries on Monday night. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield shook off rib and ankle injuries to throw for 337 yards and three touchdowns in the victory.

Tampa Bay’s season continues as the Bucs will get a second shot at the Lions in Detroit. The Lions, who won the NFC North division for the first time in franchise history with a 12-5 record, beat the Los Angeles Rams, 24-23, in a home Wild Card game on Sunday.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Todd Bowles’ Finest Hour Since Super Bowl LV

The last time these two teams met, Philadelphia dominated Tampa Bay in the trenches, out-gaining the Bucs, 472-174 yards and winning 25-11. The Bucs couldn’t stop Philly’s ground game, as the Eagles rolled up 201 yards rushing on Monday Night Football.

Bucs head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles was going to be damned if he was going to let that happen again. Bowles devised an innovative game plan that best deployed his personnel in Tampa Bay’s biggest game of the year. It was a mastermind of a plan that was second only to Bowles’ brilliant game plan that held Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s offense out of the end zone in Super Bowl LV during the 2020 season.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Determined to take away Philadelphia’s potent ground game, Bowles deployed a six-man defensive front that featured a lineup of four defensive tackles in Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, Logan Hall and Will Gholston on the field at the same time – with backups Greg Gaines and Pat O’Connor rotating in – and Shaq Barrett and YaYa Diaby flanked on the edge as outside linebackers. Anthony Nelson, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Cam Gill also rotated in for Barrett and Diaby.

“Those are some big guys up front,” Bowles said of the Eagles offensive line. “As you know, the last time we played them, they got over 200 yards rushing. We were bound to not let that happen again, so we made sure we put some calls in to try to scheme up some things and get them out of it a little bit.”

Bowles used K.J. Britt more than Devin White at middle linebacker and within that six-man front scheme. Britt is better at defeating blocks in the running game and he’s a more sure tackler.

Instead of using Ryan Neal at strong safety, Bowles deployed Antoine Winfield Jr. in the box more often because he is the team’s best tackler. With starting cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean both healthy, Bowles wanted to find a way to get Zyon McCollum, the team’s best and most athletic cornerback, on the field. So Bowles deployed him in the slot as a nickel cornerback when Kaevon Merriweather rotated in at safety, and also used McCollum at free safety.

“K.J. was in the six-man package, so that helped out a lot in that package,” Bowles said. “That kept them in it. They hadn’t been doing that much 12 personnel but they did, so that package played a big part. And Zyon, we knew we had to cover [DeVonta Smith] if we were going to go after [Jalen Hurts], so we needed a better cover guy. And Zyon, along with the other two guys, those are our best cover guys and he’s earned his playing time. Like I said, we can use him anywhere we want.”

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson and DT Will Gholston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bowles deployed Tryon-Shoyinka as an interior nickel rusher next to Vea and Kancey with Diaby and Barrett outside in a unique pressure package, which also called for White to be a blitzer. The Bucs sacked Jalen Hurts three times with Gaines and Tryon-Shoyinka getting home and Vea and Kancey splitting a sack. Up 16-9 in the third quarter, Nelson caused a safety by wrapping up Hurts in the end zone as he threw the ball away and was flagged for intentional grounding.

Philadelphia punted the ball back to Tampa Bay after the safety and Baker Mayfield hit rookie receiver Trey Palmer for a 56-yard catch-and-run that increased the Bucs’ lead to 25-9 and essentially put the game out of reach.

As well as Mayfield, who passed for 337 yards and three touchdowns, and the Bucs offense played, this night belonged to Bowles and his defense. The Eagles were held to 276 yards and were 0-of-9 on third down – ZERO-OF-NINE! – and 0-of-2 on fourth down by a dominant Bucs defense.

That is an insane third down number, and one achieved by Bowles devising a myriad of blitzes that confused Hurts and forced several hurried, errant throws.

Bucs ILB KJ Britt and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts – Photo by: USA Today

“Not getting them in third and short, number one” Bowles said when asked about Tampa Bay’s success on third down defense. “Had a package where we created just to get some pressure on them to kind of confuse them up front a little bit and the guys were playing hard.”

Bowles’ defense was so devastating and dominant on Monday night that Philly’s famous “tush push” or “brotherly shove” short-yardage play was foiled. The Eagles tried it on a two-point conversion attempt from the 1-yard line following an offside penalty on McCollum on an extra point.

It didn’t work.

Britt went over the top to grab Hurts while Hall, Vea, and Gaines went low to stuff the Eagles’ offensive line.

Nothing worked for a Philadelphia offense that was without star receiver A.J. Brown, who missed the game due to a knee injury he suffered in Week 18 at New York. Wide receiver DeVonta Smith had eight catches for 148 yards but was the only Eagle that consistently made plays and gained yardage.

Nothing worked because of a masterpiece of a game plan by Bowles and his staff, and terrific execution by his Bucs defenders.

“Shoot, I think it just came down to the game plan,” Vea said. “We just knew that we had to stop the run and we knew that they had a hell of a team all the way around on offense. They killed us the first time we played them, so we had to change some stuff around to try and match up better this time around.”

STATEMENT 2. Todd Bowles Solidifies His Position As Bucs Head Coach

The Glazers and general manager Jason Licht wanted to see Bucs head coach Todd Bowles do two things this season following a disappointing 8-9 record and home playoff loss to the Dallas Cowboys last year. They wanted to see progress in Tampa Bay’s win-loss record in 2023, and Bowles win in the postseason.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Even though Bowles won back-to-back NFC South titles over the past two seasons, he has a 17-17 record in the regular season and was 0-1 in the playoffs heading into Monday night’s game against the Eagles.

The team’s 9-8 record in 2023 represented a one-win improvement over last year’s mark. Monday night’s victory over Philadelphia proved to ownership and Tampa Bay’s general manager that Bowles can win in the postseason.

Win or lose next week in Detroit, Bowles has done enough to remain Tampa Bay’s head coach in the 2024 season. This year’s 2023 team was hampered with nearly $80 million in dead salary cap money and forced to play nearly a dozen rookies this season as a result. While some NFL head coaches would shy away from playing that many rookies, Bowles actually embraced it as he loves developing young talent.

After a 3-1 start quickly descended into a 4-7 record at the end of November, Bowles’ steady hand guided the team to four consecutive wins to get to an 8-7 record. After a stunning loss at home to New Orleans, Bowles and the Bucs won the NFC South division in Week 18 on the road in Carolina with his defense leading the way in a 9-0 shutout win.

Bowles won five of the last six regular season games and did so with an entirely different team and makeup from the previous season, which was Tom Brady’s final year in Tampa Bay and the NFL. That was not an easy task and Todd Bowles deserves a ton of credit for a job well done, especially since the Bucs have caught fire and have won six of their last seven games, including Monday night’s playoff win over Philly.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs have not only secured their head coach in 2024, but likely their offensive coordinator in Dave Canales, who has gotten an interview request from Carolina but wants to stay in Tampa Bay and continue to build his program on offense – much the way Detroit play-caller Ben Johnson spurned head coaching opportunities last year to gain experience and attempt to finish what he started offensively with the Lions this year.

Throw in the fact that the Bucs have a strong interest in re-signing quarterback Baker Mayfield, and Tampa Bay could be well on its way to winning a fourth straight NFC South title in 2024. The culture that Bowles and his staff have built this year is indeed a special one with the way the team has improved, and how the Bucs are playing at the end of the season.

Todd Bowles deserves a ton of credit – and he deserves to lead the Bucs into battle again in 2024.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. How Did Dave Canales And The Bucs Offense Score 32 Points vs. Philly?

By attacking the perimeter of the Eagles’ defense and the deep middle. Not only did Bucs head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles call a great game on Monday night, but so did offensive coordinator Dave Canales. In Tampa Bay’s 25-11 loss to Philadelphia in Week 3, the Bucs offense only generated 174 yards, including just 41 on the ground. Canales and the Bucs offense started hot and eclipsed those numbers by the end of the first quarter, in which Tampa Bay led 10-0.

Bucs OC Dave Canales – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Canales schemed more outside runs rather than inside runs that would force his overmatched interior offensive linemen to have to do too much against the Eagles’ dominant defensive tackles. So the Bucs ran behind offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke this time around and attacked the flanks with short, quick, rhythmic passes from Baker Mayfield.

“You could feel it,” Mayfield said of Canales being in a play-calling zone against Philadelphia. “And it comes down to guys just executing, too. Like we talked about, when we went on a little lull midseason, we just weren’t doing little things right, and that makes it really tough on a play caller, so. Dave was feeling it tonight and our guys took advantage of it.”

The Bucs rolled up 426 yards of offense and scored three touchdowns in a 32-point onslaught that few saw coming – even against a wounded and fragile Eagles defense. Tampa Bay converted 42.9% (6-of-14) third downs and 1-of-2 (50%) on fourth down while rushing for 119 yards with Rachaad White leading the way with 72 yards and a 4.0 average.

When the Eagles linebackers stepped up to attack the run, Mayfield threw the ball right behind them to tight end Cade Otton, who was often open and hauled in a career-high eight catches for 89 yards. It was fantastic scheming by Canales and excellent execution by the Bucs players on offense – outside of too many dropped passes – that took advantage of a shoddy Eagles defense.

QUESTION 2. In What Area Do The Bucs Need A Better Showing To Beat The Lions?

Catching the ball and connecting on deep passes. As much as the Bucs dominated the Eagles in the first half in terms of yards and points in opening up a 16-9 lead, Tampa Bay had six critical drops that could have put a lot more yards on the stats sheet and way more points up on the scoreboard.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Mike Evans had two drops on Baker Mayfield deep balls inside the Philadelphia 5-yard line. Cade Otton dropped a touchdown in the end zone on a drive that ended in a Bucs field goal, as well as another one across the middle when he was wide open. Normally sure-handed running back Rachaad White had a drop, in addition to a drop by running back Chase Edmonds.

Mayfield could have had two huge pass plays to Trey Palmer – one of which could have been a touchdown – in the 20-6 loss to the Lions back in Week 6.

“When I just immediately think back about the Lions game, a lot of missed throws by me,” Mayfield said. “I think we had a lot of stuff there. We just didn’t play our best game offensively. So we’ll look back at the tape once we get into the game plan stuff, but we’re very different than we were early on in the year and that’s something to be proud of – that we’ve continued to improve and we haven’t reinvented the wheel. We just stuck with it and just gotten better at the little things.”

If Mayfield can do a better job of connecting on the deep ball this go around against the Lions – and if his receivers can catch those passes – they could put up 30 points again, this time against a more stout Detroit defense.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Will Give Lions All They Can Handle

Bucs fans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

After beating Philadelphia in a rematch from Week 3, Tampa Bay now travels to Detroit for a rematch against the Lions. The Bucs lost to the Lions,  20-6, in the throwback creamsicle game in Week 6 following their bye week.

Despite knocking David Montgomery out of the game and holding the Lions to just 40 yards on 22 carries (1.8 avg.), quarterback Jared Goff passed for 353 yards and two touchdowns in Detroit’s victory at Raymond James Stadium.

The Bucs struggled to run the ball as well, as Rachaad White ran for only 26 yards on seven carries (3.7 avg.) while Tampa Bay ran for 46 yards on 16 carries (2.9 avg.). Since Week 6, Tampa Bay’s ground game has improved, and the Bucs will need a more balanced attack to score a touchdown – or more – this time around against Detroit. The Lions edged the Los Angeles Rams, 24-23, in their home Wild Card game on Sunday for the franchise’s first postseason victory since 1991.

Tampa Bay should put up more of a fight in this rematch against Detroit and is aided by the fact that of the Bucs’ nine regular season wins, five came on the road. Two of those road victories came against NFC North opponents, Minnesota and Green Bay.

PREDICTION 2. Zyon McCollum Will Stay At Safety

Bucs CB Carlton Davis III and DB Zyon McCollum – Photo by: USA Today

One of Todd Bowles’ biggest faults since becoming Tampa Bay’s head coach is the fact that he’s been slow to make the necessary personnel changes to the starting lineup and properly work the depth chart. A big case in point was sticking with Ryan Neal too long as the starting strong safety. Neal is a sound tackler and good against the run, but he has been a liability in pass coverage.

One of the games where Neal faltered in pass defense was when he failed at covering Lions receiver and deep threat Jameson Williams, who scored a big second-half touchdown in Detroit’s 20-6 win at Tampa Bay back in Week 6. Bowles continued to keep Neal in the lineup and it proved costly a few more times, including a home loss to the Falcons, before rotating Dee Delaney in at safety, especially on obvious passing downs.

But now that starting cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean are both healthy, Zyon McCollum, the uber-athletic second-year cornerback, was moved to free safety and nickel cornerback in the slot on Monday against the Eagles. McCollum played well in his new role, and with more dangerous weapons ahead next week in Detroit, including Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Josh Reynolds, look for No. 27 to continue to play deep at safety in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.