It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. Tampa Bay came up short in a 41-31 loss to Baltimore in what turned out to be a massacre on Monday Night Football. The Bucs lost wide receiver Chris Godwin to a dislocated ankle, wide receiver Mike Evans to a re-injured hamstring and rookie cornerback Tykee Smith to a concussion.

The Bucs lost a lot of firepower with the Falcons game coming up on Sunday, and Bowles came under fire for leaving starters like Godwin in the game down 10 points with 43 seconds left with no timeouts.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Todd Bowles Gambled On A Comeback Win – And Lost Big

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em

Know when to fold ’em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table

There’ll be time enough for countin’

When the dealin’s done
Every gambler knows

That the secret to survivin
‘
Is knowin’ what to throw away

And knowin’ what to keep

‘Cause every hand’s a winner

And every hand’s a loser



Lyrics to Kenny Rogers’ iconic song, The Gambler

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles gambled and lost – big time – on Monday night in a crushing 41-31 loss to the Ravens. Like a gambler who is mired in a losing streak who just doesn’t know when to walk away, Bowles stayed at the table and went all-in for an improbable and very unlikely comeback attempt.

Despite the fact that his defense couldn’t stop the Ravens all night  – Lamar Jackson threw for five touchdowns and Baltimore punted just twice – Bowles kept quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Chris Godwin in the game despite being down 17 points late in the fourth quarter.

Trailing by 10 points with no timeouts and just 43 seconds left, Godwin, who has been the best player on Tampa Bay’s offense this season, was tackled hard and awkwardly by linebacker Roquan Smith and suffered what looks to be a season-ending dislocated ankle.

Before you say, “All they needed was a field goal, a successful onside kick and a Hail Mary touchdown!” do you know how improbable that is?

We’re talking about less than 1% chance of victory given the circumstances. Remember that the Bucs failed to recover their second onside kick attempt.

With Mike Evans reaggravating his hamstring injury on what should’ve been a touchdown catch in the second quarter, Bowles should’ve had his Bucs live to fight another day. It’s one thing to be down Evans heading into the most important game of the year – a rematch game against Atlanta on Sunday in Tampa Bay. It’s another thing to extremely handicap this offense to have to try to beat the Falcons – and the Chiefs, and the 49ers, etc. – without Evans and Godwin.

ESPN’s Ryan Clark can say whatever he wants about how NFL players sign up to play for 60 minutes and how Bowles did nothing wrong by trying to win the game against the Ravens on Monday night. He’s a former player and that’s his mentality. That’s his opinion.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

But Bowles’ job as a head coach is to manage the game – and the season. Bowles has a responsibility to protect his players – sometimes from their own competitive selves.

Yes, Mayfield wanted to be out there trying to win the game. If you asked him if he wanted to stay in the game, he would’ve said yes.

And yes, Godwin wanted to be out there trying to win the game. If you asked him if he wanted to stay in, he would’ve said yes, too.

Didn’t Bowles learn his lesson when All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. hurt his foot in the blowout win versus Washington in Week 1 on the second to the last play of the game? Winfield missed the next four games.

A football season is a marathon – not a sprint. Each game is important, but next week’s game against the Falcons is a divisional game. Sunday’s game against Atlanta is more important than Monday’s game against Baltimore was because of that.

The object for generals is to win the war – not just the battle. In football terms, that means the goal is to win the Super Bowl a.k.a the 21-game war.

On Monday night, Bowles got too caught up in trying to expend ammunition to try to win a battle against an AFC opponent rather than save that ammo – namely Godwin – for an even more important battle on Sunday with the division lead on the line against the Falcons.

Lose to the Ravens? Lose a battle.

Lose to the Falcons? Likely lose the war for the NFC South title.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: USA Today

And with all four teams in the NFC North having winning records right now, the NFC South might produce only one playoff team – the division winner.

There’s a fine line between coaching scared and coaching smart. But that’s why head coaches like Bowles are paid millions of dollars – to figure out where that line is and how to walk it 17 times per year.

To Clark and everyone who disagrees with pulling players to avoid injury, why did Ravens head coach John Harbaugh decide to pull his top offensive starters – Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson –up 10 points with 1:57 left – even when the Bucs had all three timeouts?

Because he knew the odds of Tampa Bay coming back down two scores after burning three timeouts and needing another onside kick were in his favor. Harbaugh knew he had a winning hand and that the game was essentially over.

That’s smart coaching. Harbaugh and the Ravens are now 5-2 after winning five straight games.

Bowles and the Bucs will struggle to try to stay above .500 entering the bye week. A 5-5 record might be the best-case scenario now if Tampa Bay can somehow win against Atlanta. But a 4-6 record is seeming more likely without Evans and Godwin.

STATEMENT 2. Baker Mayfield Must Play Mistake-Free Football – Now More Than Ever

Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey – Photo by: USA Today

Baker Mayfield was trying to do too much. He just saw Mike Evans go down with a serious hamstring injury, dropping a would-be touchdown catch due to the immense pain the receiver felt shooting up his leg. Instead of being up 17-7 in the second quarter, the Bucs were trailing 14-10 in short order.

Three plays after Evans went down, Mayfield threw an ill-advised pass into the end zone and into the waiting arms of Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey. That led to another Ravens touchdown drive to give Baltimore a lead it would never relinquish in a 41-31 win that wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate.

Mayfield admitted after the game he was trying to do too much after Evans’ injury – an injury which deflated the entire team at the time.

“Yeah, wind kind of got taken out of our sails at that point,” Mayfield said. “Any time you’re in the red zone, have a turnover, obviously can’t do that. Marlon Humphrey made a good play falling off it, but I’ve got to be careful with it down there knowing we already have points.

“Yeah, that really was the swing of the game and they then got the ball and went down and scored. Yeah, that was a big momentum shift in the game. Still at halftime going in, it’s still a one-score game. Still we’ve been in those situations before and understanding we’re still in this ballgame. Yeah, that was a huge swing. Got to take care of the ball.”

Mayfield had Bucky Irving at the front of the end zone for an apparent touchdown, but passed on him and threw the ball right to Humphrey in the back of the end zone.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Humphrey picked off Mayfield again in the second quarter, as the Bucs QB has now thrown five interceptions in the last two games – all in the second quarter.

“And the second one was just absolutely horrible,” Mayfield said. “Definitely worst pick of the year so far. Can’t do that. Third and long, got it check it down. They’re playing the deep stuff. Trying to give us the short stuff. Got to check it down to Cade [Otton] and move on.”

With Evans and Godwin out, Mayfield will have to resist the urge to put on the Superman cape and try to do too much moving forward against the Falcons and the other opponents on the schedule. Mayfield will need to be patient and play within himself and Liam Coen’s scheme.

And Coen must convey the point that Mayfield must play turnover-free football going forward. Mayfield completing 70% of his passes for 260 yards and one touchdown just might be enough to give his team a chance to win with a balanced rushing attack. But a pair of interceptions will spell doom for an offense – and a team – that suddenly has very little room for error.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. What The Hell Has Happened To Todd Bowles’ Defense?

I’m not even sure Todd Bowles knows at this point. Who knows what to expect from the Bucs defense on a week-to-week basis? Tampa Bay has turned in a couple of defensive gems this season in wins at Detroit and against Philadelphia. Shutting out New Orleans in the second half was commendable.

But then there are some real clunkers, such as the heartless effort against Denver, the choke job at Atlanta and the ass-kicking at the hands of Baltimore on Monday night. Bowles is the defensive play-caller as well as the team’s head coach. He’s got to figure this out and figure it out quickly or he will take the fall if this season spirals out of control due to inconsistent play on defense.

The Bucs scored 30 points against the Falcons and lost. They scored 31 points against the Ravens and lost.

The culprits on Monday night were the safeties – Jordan Whitehead played awful, and Antoine Winfield Jr. wasn’t much better.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

According to Pro Football Focus – and take this with a grain of salt – the Bucs’ best players on defense this year through seven games are cornerbacks Zyon McCollum (83.3), Tykee Smith (74.4) and Jamel Dean (73.5) with outside linebacker Yaya Diaby (74.4) sprinkled in, too.

The worst starters? Inside linebacker K.J. Britt (36.2), defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (41.5), along with outside linebackers Anthony Nelson (49.5) and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (53.5) and safeties Winfield (57.3) and Whitehead (60).

The fact that Winfield and Whitehead have played so bad is stunning given their previous chemistry together. And isn’t it time to see if J.J. Russell can play? He seems faster and is a better athlete than Britt. Why not try to find out?

Little did we know how devastating the loss of coverage linebacker SirVocea Dennis would be at the time. But it certainly seems to be a big loss.

Can Bowles figure this out? Kirk Cousins lit up his defense for 509 yards a few weeks ago. We’ll find out on Sunday, but I have my doubts.

QUESTION 2. How Does Liam Coen Overcome The Loss Of Mike Evans And Chris Godwin?

Bucs OC Liam Coen – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I think Liam Coen is a very bright, young coaching mind. He’s smart enough to figure this out. Yet Coen’s football I.Q. and creativity will be certainly put to the test without wide receiver Mike Evans for the foreseeable future and without Chris Godwin for the rest of the year.

Godwin accounted for 20% of Tampa Bay’s offense and 31% of the passing attack. Evans accounted for 12% of the offense and 18% of the passing game. That’s 32% of the offense and 49% of the Bucs’ passing yardage.

Coen and his offensive coaches need to put up a hierarchy of the team’s remaining best weapons on the white board today and see where things stand. Given the fact that the team’s top three running backs – Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker – might be better overall weapons than the team’s remaining top three receivers – Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer, expect Coen to lean on the running game even more in the weeks to come.

If there was a silver lining offensively on Monday night, it was the fact that the Bucs ran for 125 yards and averaged 4.2 yards per carry against the league’s top run defense. Tampa Bay still has the eighth-best rushing attack in the league, averaging 135 yards per game.

The top four highest-graded offensive Bucs players were offensive linemen, which speaks to how well they played in the trenches against the Ravens’ vaunted defensive front. That should give Tampa Bay hope moving forward running the ball.

Tight end Cade Otton will have to continue to be featured in the passing game after catching eight passes for a career-high 100 yards. The Bucs could also use rookie tight end Devin Culp’s speed on offense, too.

There’s no doubt that Coen will be fighting with both hands tied behind his back for now without Godwin and Evans. He’ll have to fight with headbutts and knees to the groin – anything and everything – to help put points on the board. Riding the Pony package and using two backs more often. End-arounds. Flea-flickers. Halfback passes. Manufacture yards in an unconventional way. Dig into his college playbook at Kentucky and get unconventional if necessary. Win with scheme rather than talent.

Coen needs to pull out all the stops and just focus on winning one down at a time, one drive at a time. I have faith that he’ll come up with some answers. Maybe those answers will materialize this week or maybe they won’t come right away, but he’s smart enough to figure out a way to win offensively once he overcomes the shock of losing Evans and Godwin.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. The Bucs’ 2024 Season Is Not Lost

Bucs WRs Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

I know the devastating injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans make it seem like Tampa Bay’s season is over – even though the team is still 4-3. The Bucs might slide to 4-6 at the bye, but appear to have a very winnable stretch of games after the bye. Tampa Bay was 4-7 last year and rallied down the stretch to finish 9-8 and win the NFC South division. The problem this year is that the team is really banged up with each week sidelining another Buccaneer or two whereas Tampa Bay was remarkably healthy outside of the cornerback position and defensive tackle Calijah Kancey last year. Will the Bucs have enough healthy bodies to make a run?

Tampa Bay has a chance to finish with nine wins if it goes 5-2 down the stretch or 10 victories with a 6-1 mark after the bye week. Will that be enough for the Bucs to win the division or make the playoffs? Time will tell. But don’t give up on this team just yet. Perhaps the Bucs can be as resilient as they were a year ago and surprise us in the end.

PREDICTION 2. Tampa Bay’s Creamsicle Curse Continues

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Perhaps it’s only fitting that the Bucs will don their creamsicle throwback uniforms for Sunday’s game against the Falcons. The Bucs were known for losing in their old orange and white uniform combo, and it seems like that trend will continue against the Falcons in a high-stakes showdown at Raymond James Stadium with the NFC South lead on the line.

The Bucs have only won once since wearing the Bucco Bruce helmets and orange jerseys, and that came in Raheem Morris’ first year as head coach in 2009 when the Josh Freeman-led team upset Aaron Rodgers in the Packers for one of Tampa Bay’s three wins that year. The team is now 0-4 in throwback games since then, losing in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2023. It seems like that record will extend to five straight creamsicle defeats. If that happens, perhaps it’s time to retire those uniforms again for a while.