SR’s Fab 5 is a collection of reporting and analysis on the Bucs from yours truly, Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds. Here are four things that caught my attention this week, plus some random tidbits in my Buc Shots section at the end. Enjoy!

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FAB 1. Brady Will Be Pursued By Others, But Likely Return To Bucs

The Las Vegas Raiders are reportedly going to go after Tom Brady hard this offseason when the Bucs quarterback becomes an unrestricted free agent for just the second time in his 23-year career. The Raiders have already turned the page on quarterback Derek Carr and will be trading him in the offseason, while pursuing Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency.

The Dolphins could also enter the fray again after trying to put together a plan that would team up Brady with former Saints coach Sean Payton in Miami. That plan blew up due to the investigation into the Brian Flores situation, which led to the discovery that the Dolphins were tampering with Brady and Payton and caused the organization to be fined and lose draft picks, along with the owner being suspended.

There will be other teams that will undoubtedly be in the mix for Brady, who may play another season at age 46 in 2023. Brady is still playing at a high level, evidenced by his 4,694 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions, as well as completing an NFL-record 490 passes in 2022. And fresh off his divorce, he no longer has to negotiate with Gisele Bundchen in order to play football.

The Saints could be one of those teams hot on Brady’s trail in free agency, especially if Payton doesn’t leave to go elsewhere and instead returns to New Orleans after a year off and putting Dennis Allen, his defensive coordinator, at the helm.

But if I had to bet, I’m putting my money on Brady returning to Tampa Bay for another year if he’s not going to retire. Before I discuss why, let me explain why Brady wouldn’t go to other teams that may be suitors for his services this offseason.

Brady Won’t Play For San Francisco

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

Brady has already stated that he doesn’t want to play outside of the Eastern time zone, as his son, Jack, lives in New York and his other children, Ben and Vivian, live with their mother in Miami. So, that rules out Las Vegas, and likely San Francisco, where Brady wouldn’t exactly be a great scheme fit with all of the QB waggles and bootlegs in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

Plus, the 49ers are a perfect 6-0 with rookie Brock Purdy at the helm, and he might be San Francisco’s QB of the future if he can take the team deep into the playoffs. Brady has also shown his personal disdain for the 49ers, the team he grew up loving as a kid.

San Francisco passed on him in the draft in 2000, opting for Giovani Carmassi in the third round instead of Brady, who was selected by New England in the sixth round. Brady also wanted to play in San Francisco in 2020 when he hit free agency, but the 49ers were coming off a trip to the Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo and had just invested a lot of money in Brady’s former backup with the Patriots.

Brady Playing For The Raiders Is Even Less Likely

Raiders owner Mark Davis wants Brady to help sell tickets and give the Las Vegas franchise some oomph after going 24-25 in three seasons in Sin City. That’s probably one of the reasons why he hired head coach Josh McDaniels this season – to help lure Brady in the 2023 offseason. But McDaniels couldn’t make his offense work with Derek Carr and Davante Adams. It’s been reported that the Raiders will pursue Brady heavily this offseason.

The Raiders averaged 23.2 points per game, which ranked 12th in the NFL, but the defense ranked 26th in the league, surrendering an average of 24.6 points per game. Las Vegas’ defense needs an infusion of talent and likely won’t get better overnight.

Even if Brady came in 2023 and brought tight end Rob Gronkowski out of retirement, would Las Vegas be able to compete with Justin Herbert and playoff-bound Los Angeles? Would the Raiders be able to unseat Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, which has to be regarded as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this year? That’s highly unlikely, especially with Las Vegas’ poor defense, which played a big role in the team’s poor 6-11 record.

Brady Would Likely Turn Down The Dolphins

On the surface, Miami makes sense when it comes to Brady possibly leaving for a new team. He’s good friends with minority owner Bruce Beal, and two of his children are living in Miami, so he would be in closer proximity to them.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

The Dolphins went 9-8 for a second straight season and barely made the playoffs, thanks to an 11-6 win over the Jets in Week 18 with third-string QB Skylar Thompson. Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has suffered multiple concussions this year, which not only puts his NFL career in jeopardy, but also may make Miami want to pursue another starter due to his injury risk.

Brady has been criticized by his haters for the Patriots taking advantage of a weak AFC East, as New England won the division 17 times out of 20 years with him at quarterback. Well, the AFC East is a much tougher, more competitive division now, led by the 13-3 Bills. The Dolphins split their division games with the Patriots (8-9) and Jets (7-10).

There’s no doubt that Brady wants to play for a Super Bowl contender, but he knows that starts with a trip to the playoffs. And the path to the playoffs – and a division title – might be much easier in the weak NFC South. That won’t happen in New Orleans with Payton if he returns to coach the Saints.

Brady has too much respect and admiration for his teammates, general manager Jason Licht, head coach Todd Bowles and owner Joel Glazer to want to leave Tampa Bay and play the Bucs twice a year with a division rival. Besides, the Bucs swept the Saints this year and won the division over New Orleans, which finished 7-10.

That’s why Brady will likely return to Tampa Bay in 2023 if he doesn’t retire. Let’s examine the reasons why the Bucs remain the best fit for Brady.

FAB 2. Brady’s At Home With The Bucs

Tampa Bay has become home for Tom Brady over the last three years, and the Bucs remain the most logical team for him to play for in 2023 if he’s going to lace up his cleats for a 24th season.

But why?

Bucs QB Tom Brady and WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Why would Brady want to return to a team whose offense has struggled so bad this year, averaging just 18.4 points per game?

Why would Brady want to come back to a team that finished with a losing record at 8-9 this year?

Well, for starters, there will be a new offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay next year, as the Bucs are expected to replace Byron Leftwich in 2023. Then, there is the fact that Brady loves playing with Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen, who has been out with a knee injury since the second day of training camp this season. Jensen is making a full recovery and will be ready to go next season.

Add in the rapport with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and Brady is also quite strong. It was that duo that helped lure him to Tampa Bay in the first place.

But perhaps just as important is the relationships Brady has developed with owner Joel Glazer, general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles over the years – but more specifically this year. Brady went through a very painful and public divorce from Gisele Bundchen, the mother of two of his children.

When Brady needed time off to deal with his personal life in training camp, Licht and Bowles were there for him and granted him 10 days away from the team. When Brady wanted to fly up to see his son, Jack, and attend Robert Kraft’s wedding in October, Bowles and Licht were in full support.

That means something to Brady – that the Bucs stood beside him through a very personal ordeal. That level of trust and relationship is something that Brady might not have even had with Kraft and head coach Bill Belichick in his 20 years in New England.

If Brady is going to play for another season, it will likely be with the Bucs as a result of those relationships. Brady isn’t a celebrity. He’s an icon that can rarely go out in public due to the hysteria it would create.

Brady is a very down-to-earth guy at heart and even though he’s the ultimate competitor, it’s the camaraderie and relationships with the players that he knows he’ll miss more than just competing on Sundays once he retires. Game days are once a week, but it’s the other six days that he’s around his teammates and coaches that matter just as much – if not more.

Bucs QB Tom Brady and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

When Brady came to Tampa Bay, he told the players and coaches to just treat him like one of the guys and they did just that. The locker room, the meeting rooms and the practice field in Tampa Bay are just a few of the places in this world where Brady is not an icon and he relishes that. I don’t think Brady is ready to leave that just yet.

The grass isn’t always greener. Just look at Denver back in late March after the Broncos had hired Green Bay offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and traded for Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson. Expectations were high and excitement was a mile high in Denver. There was a buzz about the Broncos possibly contending for the AFC West title and possibly dethroning the Chiefs.

But Wilson was not a good fit in the Broncos locker room and had a disastrous first season in Denver with just 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Hackett was fired before the end of the season as the Broncos finished a dismal 5-12.

If Brady were to go to another team in Las Vegas or Miami, there is no guarantee that he would find the same, right chemistry with the players and have the same level of support with the coaching staff, the general manager or the owner. It was a big risk for Brady to leave the Patriots for the Bucs in 2020. It might be an even bigger risk for him to leave Tampa Bay three years later.

Lightning rarely strikes twice. But if it does, it’s likely to be in Tampa Bay – the lightning capital of the world. I think Brady knows that.

FAB 3. Last Hurrah For Several Bucs?

Monday night’s game at Raymond James Stadium could be the last in red and pewter for several key Bucs players. Tampa Bay has 23 players who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents in March.

Some of those players are newcomers like wide receiver Julio Jones, defensive tackle Akiem Hicks and safeties Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal that don’t have as much history with the team. Some were very instrumental in the Bucs winning Super Bowl LV in 2020 and back-to-back division titles in 2021-22, including starters like cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean and safety Mike Edwards.

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Others are key reserves like outside linebackers Anthony Nelson and Carl Nassib, wide receiver Scotty Miller, quarterback Blaine Gabbert, defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches and special teams stalwart Pat O’Connor.

But there are three big soon-to-be free agents who could be suiting up in Tampa Bay for the last time if the Bucs lose to the Cowboys in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Quarterback Tom Brady and a pair of Tampa Bay defenders who have at least a dozen years in red and pewter – linebacker Lavonte David and defensive lineman Will Gholston.

I’ve already discussed the fact that Brady could return to the Bucs for 2023, likely on a one-year deal or a deal that includes more voidable years to spread out the cap hit. Brady made $25 million in 2022 and the team will already face a $35.1 million cap hit when the four voidable years accelerate when he leaves.

But what about David and Gholston?

David’s most recent contract paid him an average of $12.5 million per season. If he returns next year at age 33, the Bucs would likely insist it be at a lower price tag. According to OverTheCap.com, Tampa Bay is currently $42.867 million over the 2023 salary cap, which is the second-worst salary cap situation in the league next to New Orleans, which is $50.133 million over the cap.

If the Bucs had an adequate replacement for David on-hand, the team may decide to go younger and cheaper at linebacker. But neither K.J. Britt nor J.J. Russell is starter material, and David is actually still playing a reasonably high level.

Bucs LB Lavonte David – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Gholston was re-signed to a one-year, $4.5 million deal last year and the Bucs may only bring him back if his price tag is significantly lower. He’ll be 32 this year and is coming off a season in which he had value stopping the run, but not much else. Gholston failed to record a single sack for just the second time in his career.

As for the other free agents to be, Dean might price himself out of the Bucs’ market, especially since they signed cornerback Carlton Davis III to a deal that averages $14.8 million per year last offseason. Tampa Bay may look to re-sign a lot of its other free agents to one-year, prove-it deals if there is not a robust market for them in March. That’s what the Bucs did with running back Leonard Fournette in 2021 following the Super Bowl.

With big paydays on the horizon for the likes of linebacker Devin White, tackle Tristan Wirfs and safety Antoine Winfield Jr., the Bucs will not be big spenders in free agency this year because they will need to save future cap space for those looming extensions. As a result, some of the team’s stars and semi-stars may be moving on when the Bucs’ season ends.

FAB 4. Free Agency Will Determine Bucs’ Draft Needs

As soon as the Bucs’ 2022 season ends, the focus on the 2023 offseason will begin. Aside from some expected changes to the coaching staff, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, free agency and the NFL Draft will be first and foremost on the minds of head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht and the Bucs’ brass.

Bucs QB Tom Brady and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are set to have 23 unrestricted free agents when free agency starts on March 13 when the negotiating period begins. Tampa Bay will need to determine the futures of seven starters, including quarterback Tom Brady, linebacker Lavonte David, defensive linemen Akiem Hicks and Will Gholston, cornerback Jamel Dean and safeties Logan Ryan and Mike Edwards.

Whether or not those players, along with key contributors like outside linebackers Anthony Nelson and Carl Nassib, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and safety Keanu Neal, return will definitely determine the team’s needs in free agency and the NFL Draft.

Here is a lengthy list of offseason needs that the Bucs must address either in free agency or the NFL Draft.

Quarterback: Will Brady return? If he does, the Bucs’ biggest need is addressed. If not, the team will have to pursue a veteran free agent like Jacoby Brissett, as Kyle Trask isn’t ready to compete for the starting job. Tampa Bay doesn’t have the draft capital or cap room to trade for Derek Carr.

Outside Linebacker: Shaq Barrett will be 30 and coming off a torn Achilles. Former first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka didn’t show much improvement as a pass rusher. With Nelson and Nassib headed for free agency, the Bucs will likely have to draft another impact edge rusher who can pressure the quarterback.

Defensive Tackle: Vita Vea returns, but Gholston, Hicks, Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Deadrin Senat are all free agents. That leaves just Logan Hall, who had an underwhelming rookie year, at the defensive tackle spot. It all starts up front, and the Bucs will need several defensive tackles to be re-signed or added this spring.

Safety: Antoine Winfield Jr enters a contract year in 2023, but he’s the only starting-caliber safety under contract. Edwards, Ryan and Neal are all free agents. It’s likely one or two of them returns, but safety will be one of the top priorities this offseason for Bowles.

Linebacker: It’s hard to imagine David not playing in red and pewter, but at age 33, there is no guarantee that he’s back in Tampa Bay next year. If that’s the case, the Bucs must find a starting-caliber linebacker in free agency or the draft to pair with Devin White. K.J. Britt and J.J. Russell are special teamers only.

Bucs LB Lavonte David, OLB Shaq Barrett and CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

Cornerback: Carlton Davis III, the team’s top cornerback, was signed to a long-term extension in March. But Dean and Murphy-Bunting are free agents, and it’s likely only one returns. Zyon McCollum had a disappointing rookie season and that means the Bucs will likely have to draft another cornerback early.

Tight End: Cam Brate will likely be released in a cap-cutting move, and Kyle Rudolph won’t be back. That leaves just Cade Otton and Ko Kieft at tight end. The Bucs will need to add a veteran (perhaps Rob Gronkowski if Brady returns?) and draft another tight end. The 2023 NFL Draft is loaded at tight end.

Wide Receiver: At 34, Julio Jones won’t return, and Scotty Miller and Breshad Perriman likely won’t either. The Bucs might release Russell Gage in a cap-cutting move. Either way, Tampa Bay will need more receivers to team with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – either in the draft or free agency.

Running Back: Will the Bucs part ways with the underachieving Leonard Fournette to save some cap space? If Brady returns, he’ll likely want Fournette to stay. If the Bucs elect to go with Rachaad White and let Fournette go, look for the team to select another running back in a deep draft at the position.

Offensive Tackle: The Bucs might part ways with Donovan Smith in a cap-cutting move after a very disappointing season. Even if Smith returns, the Bucs will be without swing tackle Josh Wells due to a knee injury. With Smith and Tristan Wirfs missing time due to injuries, the Bucs need more talented backup tackles.

The list of Bucs’ needs this offseason seems daunting right now. But re-signing some of the team’s nearly two dozen free agents will remove some of these needs – or at least make them less pressing – heading into the 2023 NFL Draft.

FAB 5. SR’s Buc Shots

• BUCS FANS WANT BRADY BACK: In a Pewter Report Twitter poll conducted after the Bucs’ 30-24 win over the Panthers, we asked Bucs fans if they wanted Tom Brady back at quarterback. An overwhelming 81.5% of the 3,634 fans said yes. That’s an increase of nearly 20% from the same poll being conducted after the Bucs’ loss to the Bengals in December.

• PEWTER REPORT’S COOK HONORED BY LOCAL MEDIA: The late great Mark Cook, a Pewter Reporter for over 10 years, was honored by the local media, which voted to rename the Pro Football Writers Association “Good Guy Award” in his honor. Cook passed away prior to the start of the 2021 season at the age of 50. We at Pewter Report miss him terribly.

CELSIUS PEWTER REPORT TAILGATE PREGAME SHOW AT WALK-ONS

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THIS WEEK’S PEWTER REPORT PODCASTS

• BUCS-COWBOYS PREVIEWS ON THE PEWTER REPORT PODCAST: The Pewter Report Podcast is energized by CELSIUS and broadcasts four live episodes each week. Next week’s schedule will feature PR Podcasts on Monday night after the Bucs vs. Cowboys game, and Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday at 4:00 p.m. ET as the Bucs start the playoffs.

Matt Matera and Scott Reynolds discussed Tampa Bay’s loss at Atlanta and whether or not the Bucs are ready to face the Cowboys in the playoffs.

Matera and Reynolds will joined by Cowboys expert Rick Zois to discuss the Wild Card playoff matchup between Tampa Bay and Dallas.

On Thursday’s podcast, Matera and Adam Slivon talked about how both the Bucs and the Cowboys have changed since their game in Week 1.

Watch the Pewter Report Podcasts live on our PewterReportTV channel on YouTube.com and please subscribe (it’s free) and add your comments. We archive all Pewter Report Podcasts. So, you can watch the recorded episodes if you missed them live.

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