Each week I’ll look back at and break down the Bucs’ most valuable plays from their past game, in terms of Expected Points Added.

Expected Points Added, or EPA, is a statistic that was created to measure the value of each play during a football game in terms of points. EPA is essentially trying to put a value on how many net points a team can expect to gain based on the result of an individual play, while taking the down-and-distance and the team’s field position into account.

For example, a 5-yard run from the 50-yard line on first-and-10 is weighed differently than a 5-yard run inside the opponents 10-yard line on third-and-2.

You can read all about Expected Points Added here, including examples.

The plays shown are measured from the offense’s perspective, so plays made by Tampa Bay’s offense will result in a positive EPA for the Bucs and plays made by Tampa Bay’s defense will result in a negative EPA for their opponents.

Below are the Bucs’ highest-valued plays by Expected Points Added, per rbsdm.com by Ben Baldwin, from their Week 3 match-up against the Denver Broncos.

Ndamukong Suh, Fumble Recovery: -5.2 EPA

With less than a minute remaining in the first half, trailing 24-7, Tampa Bay was forced to punt and punter Bradley Pinion downed the Chargers at their own 9-yard line. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh said post-game that he recognized the formation that Los Angeles was lined up in and attacked the A Gap on where the center was unable to recover with a pulling right guard.

The handoff from quarterback Justin Herbert to running back Joshua Kelley was not a clean exchange to begin the play, and the contact from Suh in the backfield forced the fumble that would be recovered by linebacker Devin White to set the Bucs up inside the Los Angeles’ 10-yard line with 31 seconds remaining in the second quarter.

Tom Brady/Mike Evans, 48-Yard Completion: 3.9 EPA

As the Bucs’ had already completed their 17-point comeback, only to give the lead back to Los Angeles on a 72-yard touchdown from Herbert, Tampa Bay trailed 31-28 to start the fourth quarter. After moving across midfield, an offensive pass interference penalty on Evans pushed the Bucs back to second-and-20 at their own 45-yard line.

Needing a big play, Brady went back to Evans on third down for a huge gain. Going out of an empty set, lined up in the slot on the boundary side of the field, Evans found himself in one-on-one coverage on a fade route with cornerback Casey Hayward Jr. as second-year safety Nasir Adderley shaded the opposite side of the field in a single-high alignment. On an injured ankle, Evans wasn’t able to beat Hayward with his speed, but tracked the deep ball well and created space to haul in the 48-yard reception down to the Chargers’ 7-yard line.

Tom Brady/O.J. Howard, 28-Yard TD: 3.1 EPA

In the midst of Tampa Bay’s comeback attempt, sitting at the Chargers’ 28-yard line while trailing 24-14 with less than nine minutes remaining in the third quarter, the Bucs had moved the ball down the field on a lengthy, seven-play drive.

Out of 13 personnel and facing a stacked box, the Bucs picked a perfect time to attack down the field on play action and once again took advantage of the Chargers’ single-high safety by getting Howard open in a one-on-one matchup with linebacker Kyzir White on a seam route. White was unable to keep up with Howards’ speed and Brady lofted a dime to Howard in stride for his second touchdown on the season, bringing Tampa Bay to within three points.

Tom Brady/Mike Evans, 6-Yard TD: 3.1 EPA

Following the previously mentioned fumble forced by Suh and recovered by White inside of the Chargers’ 10-yard line, it was beginning to look like Tampa Bay would have to settle for three points after Brady was unable to connect with tight end Rob Gronkowski on first down and was forced to throw the second down pass away.

But on third-and-goal from the 6-yard line, Brady found Evans for the Pro Bowl receiver’s league-leading fifth touchdown reception of the season.

As the lone receiver out wide on the right side, Evans motions in before the snap and lines up alongside Gronkowski. On the snap, Gronkowski runs a quick hitch route to the goal line out of his three point stance, immediately catching the attention of three defenders, and Ronald Jones II attacks the flat to the same side of the field. This allows Evans to cross the formation and sit down in the Chargers’ zone defense for the touchdown reception.

Hidden Gems

While these plays didn’t quite stack up as some of the Bucs’ most valuable plays from Sunday in terms of EPA, these are some other crucial plays from the Bucs’ Week 4 victory against Los Angeles.

Tom Brady/Scotty Miller, Back-To-Back Receptions: 4.9 Total EPA

After a missed field goal by the Chargers’ kicker Michael Badgley, Tampa Bay took over at their own 37-yard line, trailing 24-21 with just over a minute remaining in the third quarter.

In a flash, Brady would find second-year receiver Scotty Miller on back-to-back receptions, spanning 63 yards, for a two-play touchdown drive.

On the first play of the drive it was just another example of Tampa Bay exploiting the single-high zone look that the Chargers ran frequently on Sunday. In 12 personnel, with Evans lined up wide on the boundary side of the field and Miller lined up off of Howard’s shoulder on the strong side of the formation, Miller ran a deep fade while Howard’s deep over route pulled the safety help from Adderley and left Miller in single-coverage. Miller easily gained separation from Hayward on a speed release and hauled in the 44-yard reception, down to the Chargers’ 19-yard line. This first pass of the drive had an EPA of 2.7.

Immediately following the big gain, Tampa Bay rushed up to the line with three receivers lined up to the field side of the formation in 11 personnel, with Gronkowski lined up along the offensive line to the boundary side.

The Bucs went with another well-timed play action play and when the Chargers’ linebackers sink to defend the run, it leaves Miller wide open on a deep crossing route for the 19-yard touchdown, ultimately giving Tampa Bay their first lead of the game at 28-24. The scoring play had an EPA of 2.2.

Carlton Davis, Interception: -2.1 EPA

After a long, 12-play drive late in the fourth quarter, Tampa Bay settled for a field goal that left them with a 38-31 lead as they kicked off to the Chargers with 2:40 remaining to drive down the field and tie the game.

On the Chargers’ second play of the drive, the Bucs’ showed single-high while safety Jordan Whitehead moved toward the line of scrimmage, but rotated into a Cover 3 zone play with cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis joining safety Antoine Winfield Jr. in deep thirds coverage. Despite a stellar day from Herbert, with pressure coming from outside linebacker Shaq Barrett, the rookie quarterback tried to find receiver Keenan Allen between Tampa Bay’s linebackers and safeties, but the pass was overthrown and intercepted by Davis.

The interception was Davis’ second of the season and third of his career, with both of his picks this year coming in the fourth quarter of eventual victories.