Betting The Bucs is a weekly segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Tampa Bay game during the season. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help you make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also break down various prop bets to take before you watch on Sunday.

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The Line: Bucs -11, O/U 46.5

Whether it happens in this game or the next, the Bucs are almost certain to win the NFC South championship for the first time since 2007. Revenge is a dish best served cold, and I don’t think there’s a better scenario for them to start the celebration then by knocking off the Saints, who have won it the last four years. The Bucs obviously got the last laugh, beating the Saints in the playoffs last year and winning Super Bowl LV. But there are still good reasons for why Tampa Bay wants to wipe the floor with their divisional rival.

It starts with the fact that the Bucs already lost to New Orleans earlier this year and have yet to defeat them in the regular season since Tom Brady got to Tampa Bay. But the Bucs also lost last year at home to New Orleans on Sunday Night Football in ugly fashion. It wasn’t just a typical loss, it was an embarrassing, 38-3 demolishing on their home turf with the whole world watching. Even after all the accolades, that can’t sit well with them. They’ll look to beat the depleted Saints in a similar way this time around. I don’t think players like Tom Brady, Devin White and others forgot about last year that easily.

The odds actually say that you should be taking the Saints in this one, as the Bucs are just 1-6 against the spread when playing the Saints in their last seven matchups, but this game has more to do with that. Add in that Sean Payton won’t be on the sideline (COVID list) and that adds another element to all of this. I don’t see the Saints being able to keep up with Brady and the Bucs’ offense, who play much better at home, where they’re undefeated. The Bucs cover and guarantee themselves at least one home playoff game before the holidays.

The Pick: Bucs -11

Prop Bets:

Largest Lead (Either Team) Over 16.5 (+100)

The Bucs have done a good job jumping out to huge leads. It’s just a matter of whether they can keep it for all four quarters. Look at last week’s game for example, where they led 24-3 at halftime, only for Buffalo to rally and tie it up before the Bucs won in overtime. I can see the Bucs getting that big lead again, but for the instance of this prop, either team just needs to have the lead at some point. They don’t need to hold it.

Longest Touchdown Under 39.5 Yards (-103)

In Week 8, there were three touchdowns of 40 yards or more between the Bucs and Saints. But there were no scores that long in any of their three meetings last season. The odds are that plays that big won’t be happening again in this one, especially with these two defenses.

Chris Godwin Over 7.5 Receptions (+118)

The man is on one of the hottest runs of his career, with 25 catches over the last two games. When you get it going like that, you don’t stop betting on him. Godwin has been on an absolute tear this season and he usually shows up in these types of moments. Godwin recorded eight receptions in the last meeting against the Saints. With most of the coverage geared toward Mike Evans, he has has a good chance to reach that again.