Betting The Bucs is a weekly segment that focuses on the gambling lines for each Tampa Bay game during the season. We’ll take a look into different aspects of the game to help you make your decision on whether to bet for or against the Bucs. We’ll also break down various prop bets to take before you watch on Sunday.

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The Line: Bucs -13.5, O/U 46

I’m probably more excited for this Week 17 match-up between an 11-4 playoff bound Bucs and a 4-11 top-5 draft pick destined Jets. Growing up on Long Island, New York, the Jets were my team. Then getting to break into the media covering the Bucs has been an absolute blessing that I’m very grateful for. My worlds are colliding on Sunday. Should be fun!

After years of watching the Jets lose in disastrous, heartbreaking, debilitating and downright humiliating ways, I’ve learned one thing over that time.

Don’t bet on the Jets.

Really. I don’t care what the spread is, or the fact that they covered and beat the Jaguars last week. Don’t bet on them.

This scene from “The King Of Staten Island” is a comical reminder of it.

*Fast forward to 33 seconds.*

There’s also some great moments in an episode of the Sopranos called “Chasing It” where Tony, played by the late great James Gandolfini, who was a huge Jets fan, is unhappy because he could’ve won even more money on the Jets than he initially planned to. Bonus points to anyone that can name the head coach that Tony says hello to at Vesuvio in the episode “The Blue Comet.”

*Warning, explicit language in the video.*

Even when you win with the Jets, you lose.

Anyway, back to the Bucs. They covered on the road last week in dominating fashion with lopsided win over the Panthers. That loss to the Saints is really looking like an exception to the rule right now as the Bucs have covered in five of their last six. They’re doing it on the road, they’re doing it at home, and most importantly, they’re covering spreads both large and small. That’s important when you’re up against a line of almost two touchdowns.

Tom Brady is in quite a familiar place playing at MetLife stadium. You would have thought that him and Antonio Brown had been playing for years together when Brown went off (on the field) after not playing for over two months. Now it looks like Mike Evans is going to play this week and I don’t see how the Jets stop either of them. Evans is looking for the 1,000 yard record to continue, Brown wants to continue dominating to prove that he’s still one of the best receivers in football. That all adds up to the Bucs winning by a huge number and hopefully Blaine Gabbert gets into the game in the second half. We can only be so lucky.

The Pick: Bucs -13.5

Prop Bets:

Bucs Over 3.5 Touchdowns (-118)

I’ll make this short and sweet. The Bucs have one of the best offenses in football while the Jets have rolled out a terrible defense each week. Whether they want to run, pass or even throw in a trick play, the Bucs will find the end zone.

Total First Downs Under 39.5  (+118)

It’s a bit of an odd stat but it makes the game more interesting late if Tampa Bay is controlling the whole game. Between the Bucs getting stops on defense and their ability to get chunk plays on offense, we’ll see far less first downs than we would probably think.

Antonio Brown Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

He had 101 yards last week against a Panthers’ secondary that is pretty good despite their record. I can only imagine what he’ll do against the Jets, who are playing with rookie corners all over the place.

Mike Evans Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Evans is going for a record of eight straight seasons with 1,000 receiving yards to begin a career. Last season they force fed him the ball in the last game of the season to ensure he got the record, it will be the same thing today. This one you can set it and forget it.

Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+127)

With Brown and Evans making all the big plays someone has to throw it to them. Brady will not be lacking in opportunities down in the red zone. It’s just a matter of how long he’ll play for if the Bucs get a huge lead.

Tom Brady Touchdown (+500) 

Seeing odds like that, you have to at least consider it. Brady is good for a couple of rushing touchdowns in a season on the QB sneak. He has two rushing touchdowns so far, could he get one more?

Ronald Jones Touchdown (-143)

If the Bucs are going to be in the red zone all day, RoJo will be the running back most of the time. Odds are that he’ll get some rushing attempts at the goal line. Even with Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s breakout game last week, Jones still managed to find the end zone. He can do it again this time around.