OK, so the Bucs did their part on Saturday night, beating the Panthers 16-14 at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay is now 8-9 and remains alive in the NFC South race heading into the final day of the regular season.

But all the Bucs can do now is wait.

So, where does everything stand for Todd Bowles and his team heading into Sunday’s games? It’s simple enough.

The Bucs lost control of their own destiny when the Falcons beat the Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 17. Because despite Atlanta already being eliminated from NFC South and playoff contention, a three-way tie scenario atop the NFC South was still possible heading into Week 18. If the Bucs, Panthers and Falcons all finish tied atop the division, the Panthers win the three-way tie tiebreaker thanks to their sweep of the Falcons.

But if it’s just a two-team tie between Tampa Bay and Carolina, Tampa Bay wins that tiebreaker thanks to its superior record against common opponents.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photo by: IMAGN Images – Nathan Ray Seebeck

What does that mean for Sunday then? The Bucs need the Falcons to lose at home to the Saints in order to avoid the three-way tie scenario. If the Falcons win, that three-way tie happens with all three squads at 8-9. Again, in that scenario, the Panthers win the division and the NFC’s No. 4 seed at 8-9 despite Saturday’s loss to the Bucs and the Bucs will miss out on the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Their four-year reign atop the NFC South and NFC-best five-year playoff streak would also end.

A Falcons win also means the Bucs would finish in second place in the division, giving them a second-place schedule for 2026. The Falcons would finish third, with the Saints ending up in last place.

If the Saints pull off a win over the Falcons, the Bucs win the NFC South for the fifth straight season and make the playoffs for a sixth year in a row. They would earn the No. 4 seed in the playoffs and host the NFC West runner-up in a Wild Card Round matchup next weekend. They would also have a first-place schedule once again for 2026. In that situation, the Panthers would finish second, the Saints would be third and the Falcons would be the NFC South’s last-place team.

Now, in the unlikely event that the Falcons and Saints tie, the Bucs will win the division. Put simply, an Atlanta tie is as good as an Atlanta loss for Tampa Bay. As unlikely as that outcome is, it’s probably the on most Bucs players and fans would like to see play out.

Bucs Facing The Unenjoyable Reality Of Rooting For The Saints

It’s no secret that the Bucs don’t like the Saints. The Saints will deny it and deny it and deny it, but they really do hate the Bucs, too.

So, as much as their playoff lives depend on the Saints beating the Falcons on Sunday, the Bucs are having a hard time accepting the fact that they have to root for a team they hate so much.

“It is tough, man. It is tough,” Lavonte David said. “I never thought I’d see a day where I’m rooting for the Saints. But I’ve got some guys over there who I know who I can get in contact with and make sure they handle business.”

Plenty of other Bucs echoed that sentiment, including veteran All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs.

Bucs OT Tristan Wirfs and Saints DE Cameron Jordan – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“It is strange,” Wirfs said. “Obviously would’ve loved to have been able to just clinch today and be done with it. We’ll watch tomorrow and see what happens. But out of our control now. I’ll tell you what, I’m not gonna sit here and say I’m gonna root for the Saints. I’ll tell you that. I’ll root against the Falcons. I’ll root for the Falcons to lose. We’ll see how it goes.”

Even a rookie like cornerback Jacob Parrish understands how sickening of a thought it is to root for the Saints despite only being a part of two meetings with them in his young career.

“It’s not a good feeling. Those are rivals,” Parrish said. “To be honest, I might just go to sleep and wake up to see what happened – that’s probably what I’m going to do tomorrow.”

Saints DE Carl Granderon and Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who hasn’t been shy about his hate of the Saints, took things a step further. He’s well aware that a Falcons tie is as good for the Bucs as a Falcons loss, so to avoid rooting for a Saints win, that’s the outcome he’s wanting.

“Yeah, a tie still gets us in so… They can still tie,” he said.

And at the end of his postgame press conference, Mayfield also joked that he could get in contact with the hotel the Falcons are staying in ahead of Sunday’s game.

“I might try and call the hotel for the Falcons,” he said. “I don’t know where they’re staying, but…”

For all of the distaste the Bucs have for the Saints and the hesitancy to pull for them on Sunday, there was one Buc who seemed to have a little bit more commitment to rooting for the Saints to help them out,. That was tight end Cade Otton, who led the way in Saturday’s win with seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown.

“It is weird, and I hate to say it, but ‘Who dat. Go Saints,'” Otton said. “You spell it with an ‘eaux’ too, but yeah, we’ll be waiting around cheering on the Saints, which is weird.”