After an embarrassing playoff loss to the Cowboys where they were outcoached, outplayed, and outclassed, the Bucs will have to pick up the pieces and look to 2023. Changes are needed if the team is to improve upon their disappointing 2022 season where they won their division despite having the worst point differential and a losing record.

Some change will be forced upon them. The team’s 45-year-old quarterback Tom Brady is a pending free agent and could possibly retire. The same is true of their stalwart linebacker Lavonte David. Other changes will be by choice. One expected change will be at offensive coordinator as Byron Leftwich is expected to be let go after the offense managed less than 20 points per game this season.

But that is just the beginning. The team has 27 impending free agents in total. With the Bucs current salary cap obligations sitting at a projected $43 million over the salary cap it will be difficult to keep everyone. And after such an underperforming season not everyone should be kept. Here is how I would argue the Bucs should attack the off-season.

For The Bucs It All Starts With Brady

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

The Bucs’ 2023 season will depend heavily on Brady’s off-season decision on whether he wants to return to football for an unprecedented 24th season. If Brady decides he isn’t ready to call it quits the Bucs will do everything they can to ensure he stays with them. And I would too. With the roster they still have, and a down NFC South, with Brady at the helm the Bucs have a legitimate shot to repeat as division champions.

Brady won’t come cheap, but he’s never been one to break the bank on his contract either. And an extension would actually improve the Bucs cap situation, as it would defer a lot of the dead cap hit they are set to take if he retires or signs elsewhere.

I have a projected one-year extension for $30 million for Brady’s return. The cap hit for that deal when his current prorated money is tacked on would be in the neighborhood of $18-$18.5 million and would clear about $16.5-$17 million off the Bucs 2023 salary cap.

If Brady opts for retirement the Bucs will most likely process the paperwork after June 1. This would allow them to reduce his 2022 dead cap charge of $35,104,000 to $10,776,000 but pushing over $24 million into 2024.

Improve The Offensive Philosophy

Bucs QB Tom Brady and OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: USA Today

Former Bucs head coach Bruce Arians’ offensive philosophy was famously “no risk it, no biscuit.” This year his protege Leftwich apparently went on a no-carb diet. Forcing second down screen after first down run, Leftwich’s offensive scripting left much to be desired and prevented the playmakers at his disposal from truly being unlocked. With his impending dismissal the Bucs need to find an offensive mind that embodies two very important attributes.

First the person has to be able to understand modern-day offensive strategies and, yes, the use of analytics. The NFL is increasingly moving to an analytical based approach to game planning. And for good reason. Good, useful data can lead to smart decision-making and better results. The next offensive coordinator of the Bucs has to have a better understanding analytics than “that’s a fantasy football question.”

Names that have been floated for the job have been former Texans head coach Bill O’Brien and current University of Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Under O’Brien the Texans ranked 13th in the NFL in offense and 14th in scoring in his final full season as head coach in 2019. Monken’s Bulldogs were fifth in the FBS this season in yards per game clocking in at just a hair over 500 per game while also ranking fifth in points per game at just over 41. Monken stands out between the two, especially after the FBS national championship game when he was scheming wide open receivers through the use of play-action, crossing routes, and pre-snap motion.

Another name I would consider is Mark Brunell, who is the quarterbacks coach in Detroit where he and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson helped make Jared Goff one of the best quarterbacks in terms of epa/play and the Lions offense as one of the highest-scoring in the league.

Invest In The Pass Rush

The Achilles heel of the Bucs defense in the Cowboys game and throughout the season was their inability to effectively rush the passer without the use of the blitz or simulated pressure. Nose tackle Vita Vea had a disappointing start to the season. Over the past two seasons he has failed to ascend into the elite pass rusher the Bucs thought he was trending to when they signed him to his massive contract in December of 2020. Outside linebacker Shaq Barrett will be over 30 when the new season begins and coming off of a significant injury. There is no telling if he will be able to regain his 2019-2021 form.

Bucs OLBs Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka had a solid second season as he grew as a pass rusher and as a run defender. But he looks destined to become a high-end #2, rather than an alpha edge in the mold of Micah Parsons, the Bosa brothers, or Miles Garrett. Rookie defensive tackle Logan Hall had a very suspect year, and the jury is absolutely out on whether he can even be a starter in the NFL.

With this inconsistent and unproven group of players the Bucs absolutely need to invest in their pass rush. A combination of high draft picks and free-agent additions should be on the menu for Tampa Bay this offseason. There are currently 15 defensive linemen or edge rushers listed in Pro Football Focus’ top 50 draft prospects and the Bucs should be considering targeting one of them with their 19th overall pick. 

And while the Bucs won’t be breaking the bank by pursuing the best of the best in free agency, there are still quality pieces that can be added on reasonable contracts. Matt Ioannidis would be a good example of someone who can complement Vea on the interior with a solid history of being a good pass rusher without breaking the bank. Similarly, Ogbonnnia Okoronkwo and Arden Key figure to not highlight the edge class and could be added on second tier deals to help bolster the depth of the Bucs’ pass rush.

I know many Tampa Bay fans look at Anthony Nelson’s five sacks and feel as if he outplayed Tryon-Shoyinka, but I assure you that isn’t the case and if you look past those five plays you won’t find a whole lot of high-end play. If I was in charge I would allow Nelson to find a home elsewhere while I looked for more consistent pass rush ability elsewhere.

Create Cap Room With Four Cuts

When a team is over the cap as much as the Bucs are hard decisions have to be made. The Bucs have a few contracts they can offload to create cap savings. The four players I would move on from are left tackle Donovan Smith, tight end Cameron Brate, running back Leonard Fournette, and kicker Ryan Succop.

Smith has been a stalwart on the Bucs offensive line for eight years and enters the last year of his current contract. However, his play dropped off precipitously in 2022 and his final game was one to forget where he was constantly beat by Parsons. If Brady returns the Bucs will need to solidify his blind side and Smith can’t be counted on to do that. Cutting him would free up just under $10 million in cap space.

Fournette is just one year into his three-year pact with the Bucs. But that contract already looks like an albatross on a season where he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and was routinely found to be one of the least productive runners in the NFL.

final total rushing yards over expected leaderboard for the 2022 regular season

travis etienne barely edges out nick chubb as the RYOE leader with aaron jones having another great season pic.twitter.com/3jCJqJLKzK

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) January 11, 2023

The Bucs have the ability to save just under $3.5 million if they cut ties with Fournette.

Bucs WR Russell Gage – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Brate is set to enter the final season of his six-year deal with the Bucs. But his play as a receiver has diminished and he was never a plus blocker. The Bucs can find similar production from a much cheaper option while saving just a hair over $2 million by letting the veteran go.

And they should do the same with Succop, whose field goal percentage has dropped in each subsequent season since nailing over 90% of his kicks after arriving in Tampa Bay in 2020. While he has been fairly consistent from within 50 yards, Succop is just 3-of-10 from beyond 50 in his time with the

Bucs. In the modern NFL, 60-yard field goals are becoming a new norm and Succop just can’t hang with the legs of other NFL kickers. When you consider his $4 million cap hit for 2023 and the potential $3.25 million savings in cutting him, the choice becomes clear.

These four moves could help net just over $18.7 million in cap savings. One contract that could be on the bubble as a cap casualty is that of wide receiver Russell Gage. Gage, who was signed this past offseason for three years and $30 million, had a largely disappointing season due to injuries that plagued him. If the Bucs so chose, they could cut him and save a bit over $2.8 million.

Gage finished the year with 51 catches for 426 yards and five touchdowns. But he also showed an ability to create separation that the rest of the Bucs receiving corps struggled with. I would be excited to see what he could do with a healthy start to the 2023 season, especially considering Scotty Miller, Julio Jones and Breshad Perriman are all set to be free agents next year.

Improve The Performance Of The Offensive Line, But Don’t Change It Too Much

One of the reasons Brady underperformed in 2022 relative to the two years prior was due to the underachievement of his offensive line. While right tackle Tristan Wirfs played at an All-Pro level, the rest of the line didn’t quite live up to its billing. Right guard Shaq Mason was solid, but not quite the mauler he was hyped up to be when the Bucs traded for him last offseason. Center Robert Hainsey was serviceable, but far from the enforcer Ryan Jensen had built a reputation as being. Left guard was a nightmare with Luke Goedeke manning the position. Following his benching in Week 8, Nick Leverett took over and was an improvement, but wasn’t a strength. We already discussed Smith’s play at left tackle.

With Hainsey returning the Bucs will have a strong foundation for the 2023 version of their line stretching from center to right tackle. If I were the Bucs, I would trust that out of Hainsey, Leverett, Goedeke (with a full year and offseason under his belt to develop in his new position), and Aaron Stinnie that someone would emerge by the start of the new season as an adequate left guard. If that person were either Leverett or Hainsey I would move the other to backup center. But I wouldn’t put too much money or draft capital into the line outside of replacing Smith.

As for replacing Smith, I would try to do it with someone like Andre Dillard, who has become the odd man out in Philadelphia after the development of Jordan Mailata. Dillard is a former first-round pick who has graded out well in limited action over the last two years. He won’t command a huge contract but does represent a calculated risk at an important position. But after having to fight through an inconsistent Smith, Josh Wells and Brandon Walton in 2022, the prospect of having Dillard in place for 2023 feels like an upgrade.

Finally, the coaching of this unit has to be addressed. I’m not calling for offensive line coaches Harold Goodwin and Joe Gilbert to be fired, but their performance has to be seriously evaluated. It should be taken into consideration the considerable injuries the unit faced this year, but the troubles for this group was heavily on the communication side of things. A lack of communication amongst a unit is typically a coaching issue.

Prioritize Two Defensive Players Over Almost All Others

Bucs CB Jamel Dean and ILB Devin White – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Elite cornerback play can mask a lot of deficiencies in a defense. The Bucs proved this rule in 2022 when Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis III, and Antoine Winfield Jr. helped to mask an inconsistent pass rush and an even more inconsistent Devin White while still leading the defense to a top-10 scoring ranking. Davis is under contract through 2024. Dean is a free agent this year. He will likely command a deal similar if not a little above Davis’.

If the Bucs allow Dean to sign elsewhere, they are looking at a cupboard that is pretty empty. Sean Murphy-Bunting is also a free agent and has not proven to be nearly as good or consistent as Dean. Rookie Zyon McCollum showed that he is still a very long way off from translating his physical gifts into positive play. The only other cornerback currently set to be on the roster in 2023 is Anthony Chesley. Retaining Dean needs to be a priority as it will allow the Bucs to retain a good portion of their identity on defense next year.

Lavonte David may be on the old side for his position, but the soon-to-be 33-year-old was still playing at a high level this year. While he lacked many of the splash plays of yesteryear, he still showed a high aptitude for understanding what the opposing offense was trying to do and taking it away from them. Add in that his ability to play coverage at a very high level allowed Devin White to be utilized to his strengths as a downhill player and you have a critical piece of the Bucs defense. With free agency or retirement looming for him like Brady, if I’m the Bucs I am hoping he opts to give it one more year.

In A Weak Division The Bucs Can Improve And Make Another Run

If Brady returns, he easily maintains his status as the best quarterback in the division. Divisions are typically won by the team with the best quarterback. Look at just this year. The NFC South and NFC East, along with the AFC East, AFC West, AFC South, and AFC North were all locked up by the teams with the best quarterbacks. Only the NFC West and NFC North could not say that. The NFC West was due to the 49ers having the best defense and an offensive savant for a head coach. The NFC North was due to the Vikings winning an unsustainable number of one-score games.

The talent on the Bucs roster belied their disappointing record in 2022. An improvement in offensive play-calling could help the team to add a couple of wins and be much more competitive in a potential 2023 playoffs. The offensive line needs a tweak but should see improvements next year. If the team can re-sign one of their best players in 2022 (Dean), while investing heavily in their pass rush through the draft and free agency there is no reason they cannot be right back in the thick of things with a better outlook in 2023.