The Bucs have had a busy offseason. It may not seem like they have because much of the work they had to do was re-securing the services of some of their best and highest profile players. But let’s not forget the team did not have their current starting quarterback, free safety, left guard, center and number one receiver under contract just four short months ago.

After looking at every team’s offseason in totality, ESPN’s analytics writer Seth Walder has ventured to grade each organization’s efforts in upgrading their squad’s this year. The article is behind a paywall. Walder gave the Bucs a B.

Seth Walder Not High On Baker Mayfield Contract

Walder begins his analysis with a critique of the Baker Mayfield contract.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

“The Buccaneers spent money to retain big names in Mayfield, Evans and Winfield. Mayfield signed for a deal that can be one year for $40 million, two for $60 million or three for $100 million. It’s a little more than I thought they should or would spend. Though he had a bounce-back season in which he ranked 18th in QBR, there’s a reason Tampa Bay was able to sign Mayfield a year ago for just one year at $4 million.

“If the Bucs had guaranteed something like $27 million — what Geno Smith got a year ago — would anyone have topped that? I would have liked to have seen Mayfield do it again — with a new offensive coordinator after Dave Canales was hired as the Panthers’ head coach — before giving him $40 million.”

With all due respect to Walder, I do believe there would have been teams in the market for Mayfield’s services. The Broncos, Raiders and Vikings were all likely players for a veteran quarterback who wasn’t going to break the bank with a mid-tier quarterback contract. Furthermore, Walder notes that $40 million is a steep price for a one-year turnaround on Mayfield, but glosses over the fact that the Bucs hedged their downsize by making sure that the contract is dischargeable after just a year.

To top it off, Walder notes that he would have been comfortable with Tampa Bay giving out a contract more in line with what Geno Smith got from the Seahawks last year. It’s widely accepted that Smith’s contract was the original base for Mayfield’s deal. But the NFL salary cap grew 13.6% this year and that has to be taken into consideration when evaluating deals across multiple seasons.

Smith’s deal, three-years and $75 million, adjusted for that inflation becomes three years and $85 million. That’s before you factor in that Mayfield had more success before his “breakout” year than Smith did. Not to mention Mayfield now has two playoff wins to Smith’s zero. All of those things are going to understandably inflate Mayfield’s APY.

The last consideration Walder does not really touch on is what he would have done instead. Six quarterbacks were taken by the time the Bucs picked 26th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake May, Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix were all off the board. The next quarterback selected; Spencer Rattler didn’t go until the fifth round. Doesn’t seem like there was a trafficable path for the Bucs in the draft.

The free agent market was not littered with starting options that would have fared any better than Mayfield. There was just one quarterback on the market that would have offered an upside equal to or better than Mayfield’s. And to be fair to Walder, he seems to have liked the signing of Kirk Cousins for the Falcons at $90 million guaranteed.

Perhaps that is what he thought the Bucs should have done. But even so, I fail to see the appreciable increase in risk of guaranteeing $40 million over one year to a breakout candidate over guaranteeing $90 million over two years to a 36-year-old coming off of a torn Achilles. Not that I think the Cousins’ signing was a bad one (I don’t). I think both were good signings with similar risk/reward profiles.

ESPN Praises Other Bucs Moves

Bucs S Antoine Winfield Jr. and ILB Devin White – Photo by: USA Today

Walder was much higher on Tampa Bay’s efforts to retain All Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and future Bucs Ring of Honor Inductee Mike Evans saying, “It was Winfield, not Mayfield, who received the franchise tag — which made sense. Winfield received a top-of-the-market deal, but he deserves it, as he was one of the most valuable players in the NFL last season.

And Evans’ deal was team-friendly. He signed a two-year, $41 million contract with $29 million fully guaranteed, according to ESPN Roster Management. Though Evans will turn 31 in August, he is coming off a 1,255-yard season and yet his contract lags well behind those of other top wide receivers.”

Winfield’s deal came in a little higher than I projected by the offseason and considerably higher than he was trending towards mid-season last year. But his deal is still very much in-line with his market value. And I agree with Walder that Evans’ deal was team-friendly as I thought he could have gotten much more on the open market. That is an opinion I have become even more sure of after seeing the recent deals for DeVonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaylen Waddle.

Are The Bucs Super Bowl Contenders?

Despite making it to the NFC Divisional round as one of the final eight teams left standing in the NFL last year, Walder does not see the Bucs as title contenders. He finishes his analysis writing, “The Bucs unloaded cornerback Carlton Davis III and two sixth-round picks in a trade with the Lions, netting a third-round pick in return.

The move made sense, as Davis was coming off a poor season in which he allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap (third most among outside corners with at least 300 coverage snaps). The Bucs correctly committed to Jamel Dean as their top corner previously, and there was no guarantee of future compensatory picks if they lost Davis in free agency in 2025. Frankly, the Bucs are not Super Bowl contenders, so saving money and picking up draft capital makes sense.”

I have to take exception to Walder’s analysis here. I believe the Carlton Davis trade was less a salary dump (the team could have afforded to keep him) and more a move to get some value on a player who was missing more and more time each season while simultaneously providing a clear path to playing time for a young player the team is clearly high on in Zyon McCollum. And while Walder may not think the Bucs are Super Bowl contenders, don’t let general manager Jason Licht here you say that. The man has a penchant for keeping receipts.

The B grade placed the Bucs in a tie for 10th overall with six other teams on Walder’s list.