Predicting what teams and players will do each season is a difficult task. In a perfect world, every player and team, in this case, the Bucs, would improve on what they did the year before and flourish in the upcoming season. While it hopefully will happen to many players, that’s not always the case for everybody. The odds are that someone may underperform, but not to a point where it impacts the team a great deal.

In an article on Pro Football Network by Anthony DiBona, he listed one player from each NFL team that would be most likely to regress this upcoming season. Unfortunately for Bucs fans, the player named was quarterback Baker Mayfield. Here’s what he had to say about it.

“Similar to (Geno) Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield enjoyed a resurgence under (Dave) Canales’ watch. But now Canales has moved on to be head coach of the Carolina Panthers. Mayfield has praised his former offensive coordinator in the past, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can continue to succeed without him moving forward.”

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Obviously, a regression from Baker Mayfield would be disastrous for the Bucs, especially after signing him to a brand new expensive contract. Mayfield has yet to string together two good seasons in a row. After an 11-5 season with the Browns in 2020 in which Mayfield threw for 3,563 yards, 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, he played injured the next year as his yards and touchdowns went down while his interceptions went up to 13 in 14 games played.

Part of that was because Mayfield was playing through a torn labrum, but it was enough for the Browns to decide to move on from him and trade Mayfield to the Panthers. It didn’t get much better as threw eight interceptions between his time with the Panthers and Rams. We all know what he did with the Bucs, though, as he had career bests throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns.

There is a flaw in the reasoning for Mayfield’s hypothesized regression for 2024, however. While he is losing Dave Canales, Mayfield does get to reunite with Liam Coen, who he worked with during his time on the Rams. It’s a coach he’s familiar with, so the adjustment process won’t be very arduous, plus he gets another season with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who tend to elevate the games of their quarterbacks.

While the offense run by Canales is considered to be a quarterback-friendly offense, so is Coen’s. It should only help Mayfield reach new heights this upcoming season. If I were betting on it, I would say Mayfield has a better chance of playing even better than what the latter would be.

What Other Bucs May Slow Down?

Bucs ILB Lavonte David and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

If there was going to be a Bucs player that doesn’t meet expectations this season, I wouldn’t tab Mayfield as one of them. Mayfield is 29 years old and quarterbacks have more longevity than players at other positions. Realistically I’d look at older players that are older that the Bucs ask to take on a lot of responsibility.

Players such as inside linebacker Lavonte David or wide receiver Mike Evans would be more likely to drop off than Mayfield just yet. I’m not saying they are going to, either, I’m just pointing out that eventually expecting David and Evans to be the best at their position across the league is a high bar to reach year in and year out.

Another player that may fall into this category is cornerback Jamel Dean. This has more to do with Dean’s injury history and inconsistency catching the football than it does with his coverage skills. The Bucs need Dean to be available and to take the ball away. Whether he’ll come through is anyone’s guess.

Hopefully, none of these thoughts come to fruition. Tampa Bay will go as far as Mayfield goes and they’ll need David, Evans and Dean too in order to be successful.