Can Yaya Diaby be the missing element to the Bucs defense? For the past three seasons the team has been missing a high-end No. 1 edge rusher.

From 2019 to 2023, Tampa Bay’s defense ranked ninth overall in drop back EPA/play allowed and eighth in success rate. But since 2022, following the drop-off and eventual departure of Jason Pierre-Paul as well as the post-injury Shaq Barrett, those numbers started to slip. Over the past two seasons the Bucs are 18th in drop back EPA/play allowed and 12th in success rate.

Former Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and Titans QB Will Levis – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The missing ingredient in those years was a high-end edge rusher who could force quarterbacks to speed up, make mistakes and abandon plays. Head coach Todd Bowles tried to make up for the lack of a dominant edge with manufactured pressure in the form of blitzes. Bowles has always and will always be a blitz-first head coach, but over the past two years he has had to blitz out of necessity rather than as an add-on that completes his defense.

The issues reached a crescendo last year when the Bucs ranked third in the NFL in blitz rate at 40.4%, but 23rd in pressure rate at 33.8% and 15th in sack rate at 7.0%.

Last year’s edge group featured a declining Barrett, who would retire this past season, a disappointing Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, rookie Yaya Diaby, and veteran jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none, Anthony Nelson. The group as a whole struggled to create consistent pressure to match the push the team was getting from nose tackle Vita Vea and rookie sensation Calijah Kancey up the middle.

Yaya Diaby’s Development

Enter Yaya Diaby, who received a lot of fanfare in his rookie season in large part due to his 7.5 sacks. But peel the curtain back and his production was more scheme dependent than a byproduct of him dominating his competition. His eight quarterback takedowns included two chases on a scrambles/rollouts, an unblocked backside rush and two loops off of stunts. Only three reps were true one-vs.-one wins. Furthermore, his 26 pressures ranked tied for 1277th in the NFL and his 8.4% pressure rate was 94th among all qualified defenders per NextGenStats.

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I went back and reviewed every pass rush snap of Diaby’s season and the best way to describe him was a bull in a china shop. He had no technique or plan on how he wanted to beat opposing offensive linemen. His hope was to overwhelm his opponent with straight speed to power and bull rushes, trying to win with pure force going through the lineman’s chest. And this made sense as he was not given many opportunities in college to play a true edge role.

Louisville asked Diaby to mainly play a hybrid inside roll as a 4i/5t lineman. His job was often to play strong and long creating push in the pocket. He never developed a true pass rush technique in college.

Last year it was clear he didn’t really understand how to beat individual opponents beyond running through them. And that uncertainty stalled his get off to a below league average 0.92 seconds. The results were underwhelming as that is difficult to do at the NFL level where every player is big, strong, athletic and quick.

But there were flickers. Every so often Diaby would execute a push-pull or accidentally fall into an inside rush lane giving him an additional path to the quarterback or he would try a chop. By the end of the season Diaby had added a rip move to his arsenal fairly regularly.

While Diaby’s athleticism is impressive and gives him a solid base skill set to build upon, he lacks the springiness and ankle flexion to live off of it as a pass rusher without a refined technical arsenal to compliment it. Fast forward to this season and Diaby has leveled up. Here is a small smattering of his quantified improvements per NGS:

• Get off is 0.04 seconds faster (0.88)
• Pressure rate is 5.5% better (13.9%)
• Time to pressure is 0.36 seconds faster (2.51)

And these improvements are not accidental. They are a byproduct of an improvement in Diaby’s pass rush process.

Yaya Diaby’s Inside Counter

Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: USA Today

The best edge rushers in the NFL force opposing tackles to defend them both vertically and laterally. Whether it’s a cross-chop, a club-rip, a spin, or a pull-slide, most pass rushers need to be able to win inside to help elevate their ability to win outside. When a tackle has to account for the possibility of an inside move he will shorten his vertical set and expose his outside shoulder for easier cornering.

Diaby has found his inside move, and he is using it to his advantage. What is awesome about this development is that Diaby is just weaponizing what he already did well, which was drive with speed and power. But the key difference this year is knowing what to do after step one.

Once he creates a vertical push by knocking his opponent backwards, he is immediately taking advantage by knowing that his next step is inside where there is usually daylight for him to exploit. An additional advantage comes from the quarterback who usually wants to step up into the pocket to deliver passes.

How has Yaya Diaby developed into one of the most consistent pressure rushers in the NFL this season? He’s added an inside move. Using his length and power he creates vertical displacement then dips inside for the fastest path to the QB. pic.twitter.com/yrAosnQV9e

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) September 30, 2024

What is interesting about Diaby is that his inside counter is quickly becoming his preferred way of winning and the first line of his offense. And tackles are taking notice. Which then allows him to win to the outside around the top of the arc with speed and a much more effective rip move than he had his rookie season.

And because the inside is quickly becoming his best move, he can set up outside wins as his “counter” when tackles cheat inside. pic.twitter.com/90iq664nYm

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) September 30, 2024

Where Are Yaya Diaby’s Sacks?

Yaya Diaby converted 31% of his pressures into sacks last year. That was an unsustainably high rate. But conversely, this year’s 6.25% conversion rate is also unsustainable. Why hasn’t Diaby been able to translate all of this pressure into sack production? A lot of it has to do with the style of quarterbacks he has faced this season. Three of the four passers that the Bucs have matched up against have been mobile in playstyle, opting to bail out the pocket when they feel heat coming their way.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With Diaby winning most often inside his target is often running away from him instead of into him. Jaden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts all have a bail element to their pocket awareness that has often left Diaby grasping for air and rush lanes open for those quarterbacks to make plays with their feet. But all is not lost for the young outside linebacker, who did get his first sack of the season against Hurts on Sunday, also forcing a fumble.

Over the course of the season this should even out. In Week 5 Diaby and the Bucs will face an immobile quarterback in Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins, followed by New Orleans’ Derek Carr in Week 6. Of the 13 games left on the Bucs schedule, just three feature quarterbacks with a penchant for breaking the pocket on scramble bails. They are Lamar Jackson of the Ravens, Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs and Daniel Jones with the Giants. And Jones may not be New York’s starter by the time they meet the Bucs in Week 12.

In four games, Diaby has totaled 22 pressures per Pro Football Focus, which is tied for fourth in the NFL with Dallas’ Micah Parsons. He has a pass rush productivity rate of 11.6, which ranks ninth in the league.

Diaby is ascending. And while I did not think his ceiling was that of a true premier edge rusher, I cannot ignore the production coming from him which matches the best of the best through the first quarter of this young season.

And if he can reach those lofty heights, it will restore a dimension to the Bucs defense that they have not had in several years. Which will in turn give Todd Bowles an new layer to wrinkle into his psychotic pressure-laden scheme.

And I am here for it.

Yaya Diaby’s (#0) 4 pressures from week 4 vs PHI.

One area I thought the Bucs could have success with was overloading the left side of the PHI OL, dictate PHI’s protection and ISO Diaby on RT Fred Johnson to give him quality 1-on-1’s.

Check out the last rep. pic.twitter.com/YvuaKA1nMD

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) September 30, 2024