It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game.

The Bucs ended the season in heartbreaking fashion, losing to the Rams, 30-27, in the NFC Divisional playoffs. Tampa Bay trailed 27-3 in the third quarter before making a valiant comeback to tie the game at 27-27 with 42 seconds left. Three second half Rams fumbles keyed the Bucs’ late charge. But Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford, who completed 28-of-38 passes for 386 yards with two touchdowns, connected with All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp on two receptions for 64 yards to set up the game-winning field goal by Matt Gay. The loss ends the Bucs’ 2021 season as the Rams travel home to host the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Bowles’ Blitzing Nature Betrays Bucs In Loss To Rams

Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles showed incredible restraint not to blitz Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LV. It went against every fiber in his being.

Yet it was the right call.

Bucs DC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

After falling behind 17-0 in the first quarter in Week 12 last year, Bowles abandoned the man coverage and pressure packages. He played more two-deep coverage. That kept Kansas City’s primary weapons – Pro Bowlers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce – in front of the defense.

It worked. Mahomes barely passed for 100 yards in the second half and the Bucs almost rallied for the win before losing, 27-24.

Bowles used the same game plan in Super Bowl LV, only blitzing Mahomes five times by bringing five rushers. And Bowles didn’t blitz six or more rushers against Kansas City – the only time he didn’t do that during the 2020 season.

The result, of course, was a 31-9 win for Tampa Bay. Mahomes was pressured all day with four rushers, sacked three times and Kansas City’s vaunted offense was held out of the end zone.

Bowles showed an incredible amount of restraint in going against his nature and it worked.

At the end of Sunday’s 30-27 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, Bowles didn’t stick to the script. The script should have been to not blitz Matthew Stafford.

As Pewter Report’s Jon Ledyard pointed out in last week’s Bucs Briefing, blitzing Stafford doesn’t yield favorable results.

Per Sports Info Solutions, here are Stafford’s numbers against five or more rushers.

5-plus rushers: 85/118 (72%), 1,031 yards, 14 TDs, 0 INT, 8 sacks

4 or less rushers: 319/483 (66%), 3,855 yards, 27 TDs, 17 INT, 22 sacks

Stafford had the highest QB rating (138.1) of any quarterback against the blitz this year.

Instead, with 28 seconds left and no timeouts with the ball at the Rams’ 44-yard line, Bowles called for a zero coverage, all-out blitz. It was the wrong call at the wrong time.

The only two players who are set at the line of scrimmage at the snap are Vita Vea, who is playing right defensive end, and Jason Pierre-Paul, who is rushing inside to the left of him. Ndamukong Suh and Shaquil Barrett are not even set to rush at the line of scrimmage yet. To execute an all-out blitz like this, spacing and proper alignment is key, and it’s hard to pull off and execute properly in a tempo situation like the Rams were in.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Bucs S Antoine Winfield, Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Suh actually wins his 1-on-1 with the right guard and applies pressure right in Stafford’s face. But Stafford was quick to recognize 1-on-1 coverage with safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. matched up with slot receiver Cooper Kupp because slot cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is blitzing.

It’s an easy read because of the blitz. Stafford makes a money throw to beat Winfield, who is caught flat-footed at the snap having to cover Kupp, who is on a dead sprint on a vertical route off the line of scrimmage. Kupp caught the 44-yard strike and set up the game-winning, chip-shot field goal from Matt Gay.

No overtime for Tampa Bay.

No Super Bowl repeat for the Buccaneers.

“About the only thing I would have done different was play the last 40 seconds different yesterday,” Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said. “Because the rest of it is what it is. You come to work each day and there’s challenges. You have to meet those challenges, and this team did that, and this coaching staff did that. Yeah, I mean there are no regrets of any kind. Would I do it differently? No. I’d play the last 40 seconds maybe better yesterday, but other than that no regrets.”

After the game, Arians suggested that not everyone on defense got the call. But the players did.

“Going back and looking at it, everybody got the call. I was wrong about that. They all got the call. We had Suh come up the middle. We’ve just got to cover better in that situation when we’re going after the quarterback. They only needed, like, possibly 12 yards for that field goal, so I don’t question that call whatsoever. But when we do that, we’ve got to get to the quarterback.”

The blitz wasn’t going to get there. The blitz failed because the call failed.

Play coverage, rush four. That’s what the analytics say to do. And that’s what an experienced coach like Bowles should have known. The Bucs sacked Stafford twice on Sunday – both came on four-man rushes.

Stafford wound up going 7-of-9 for 147 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against the Bucs when blitzed. Including the 44-yarder to Kupp.

The Rams’ ran a Dagger concept called “NASCAR” on that play. And Kupp drove that dagger straight into the heart of the Bucs’ 2021 season.

STATEMENT 2: Kupp’s Catch Right Before His 44-Yarder Was Just As Big

Before Kupp’s big 44-yard catch, which set up the game-winning field goal, he hauled in a 20-yard catch and got out of bounds. Kupp was lined up on the left side of the formation in the slot and as he turned to run a deep out, nickel cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting slipped and fell out of his break.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Bucs S Mike Edwards – Photo by: USA Today

That left the Rams’ most dangerous weapon – and the best receiver in the NFL in 2021 – wide open with two safeties deep. Not only did Murphy-Bunting fail to cover Kupp, but safety Mike Edwards failed to tackle Kupp in bounds. That stopped the clock and allowed the Rams to reset at the line of scrimmage.

Had Kupp been tackled in bounds, there wouldn’t have been any time left for the Rams to spike the clock to kick the field goal.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt,” Arians said. “That was the biggest play, in my opinion. We’ve got two-deep safeties and man-to-man underneath and we fall down, and trip. That was a bigger play, I think, than the last one.”

As a result, it comes as no surprise that the two lowest-graded Bucs defenders for the game according to Pro Football Focus were Edwards (23) and Murphy-Bunting (35). What’s even more damning is that Edwards, who allowed Kupp’s 70-yard touchdown in the first half, only played 16 snaps the entire game on defense.

Kupp finished with nine catches for 183 yards and one touchdown. 64 of those yards came on the Rams’ last two offensive plays.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: What Would It Take For Brady To Come Back To The Bucs?

That’s a different question than “is Tom Brady coming back to the Bucs?” Only Brady knows the answer to that one.

After hearing Brady on his “Let’s Go!” podcast with Jim Gray and Larry Fitzgerald on SiriusXM, it sounds like he’s considering retiring after 21 seasons at age 44. Brady will take some time and talk it over with his family before making a decision.

“It’s what relationships are all about,” Brady said. “It’s not always what I want. It’s what we want as a family. And I’m gonna spend a lot of time with them and figure out in the future what’s next.”

Bucs QB Tom Brady and head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So what would it take for the Bucs to bring Brady back? A personnel blueprint by head coach Bruce Arians and general manager Jason Licht showing Brady how the personnel on the team will be upgraded this offseason. If Brady is coming back for a third season in Tampa Bay, it’s to win a Super Bowl. He’ll need to see a Super Bowl roster on paper. That will be challenging with 10 of the team’s starters slated for free agency. Not all will be re-signed – nor should they.

Brady will also want to know who is calling the plays if offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich leaves for a head-coaching opportunity – possibly in Jacksonville. I think that’s why Arians revealed during Monday’s press conference that he would call plays if Leftwich departs. Even if wide receivers coach Kevin Garver is promoted to offensive coordinator to replace Leftwich, he has no experience as a play-caller.

Arians knows that Brady would want an experienced hand at the helm on the sidelines. Without that, Brady might not return at all.

QUESTION 2: Does Sunday’s Loss Crush Bowles’ Head Coach Candidacy?

It could. There was a report on Monday morning that Minnesota was still very much interested in possibly hiring Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to be the Vikings’ next head coach. Bowles interviewed with the Vikings last week. He has also interviewed with the Bears and the Jaguars about their vacancies, too.

But the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately?” league. Giving up passing plays of 20 and 44 yards in the final 40 seconds of Tampa Bay’s 30-27 loss to Los Angeles is not exactly a great look or a lasting impression for NFL owners considering Bowles.

The same could be said of the head-coaching candidacy of Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier after Kansas City’s 42-36 overtime win. After the Bills took a 36-33 lead with 13 seconds left, Patrick Mahomes completed two passes for 44 yards and the Chiefs kicked a game-tying field goal to send it to overtime.

Then Frazier’s defense allowed Kansas City to drive 75 yards with ease in eight plays for the walk-off touchdown in overtime. The Chiefs only had one third down – a third-and-1 – in overtime.

The end-of-game situations that Bowles and Frazier presided over will be talked about in any second-round interviews in the coming days. And it could sink their candidacies, too.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Tampa Bay Makes A Run At Patterson In Free Agency

Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson – Photo by: USA Today

One of the most impressive players I saw all season was Atlanta running back-receiver-kick returner Cordarrelle Patterson. One of the league’s best kick returners, Patterson had his best season on offense at the age of 30. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Patterson carried the ball 153 times for 618 yards (4.0 avg.) and six touchdowns.

Patterson, who was a first-round pick as a receiver in Minnesota in 2013, caught 52 passes for 548 yards (10.5 avg.) and five touchdowns. His versatility would be a huge asset in Tampa Bay, and plucking him from division rival Atlanta would be a coup.

By the way, Patterson won a Super Bowl with Tom Brady in New England in 2018. Do you think he would be interesting in winning another ring with Brady – this time in Tampa Bay?

PREDICTION 2: Bucs WR Evans Makes The Pro Bowl

Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans, who had eight catches for 119 yards and a touchdown against the Rams, is the first alternate to the Pro Bowl. Rams Pro Bowl receiver Cooper Kupp and 49ers Pro Bowl receiver Deebo Samuel will play against each other in the NFC Championship Game. One of them will be in the Super Bowl and out of the Pro Bowl, as a result.

That will clear the way for Evans to make the fourth Pro Bowl of his career. That only helps Evans’ cause for making the Pro Football Hall of Fame down the line. Evans had his eighth straight 1,000-yard season and set a franchise record with 14 touchdown catches. He caught 17 passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns in a pair of playoff games.