It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Point Conversion post-game column, which features two statements, two questions and two predictions based on the latest Bucs game. Tampa Bay lost its third straight game in familiar fashion – by beating itself in a 27-20 defeat at Dallas. The loss will likely mean head coach Dirk Koetter will be fired at the end of the season, bringing about needed change.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Bucs Need A Change
We’ve come to accept some things that we shouldn’t about Bucs football under head coach Dirk Koetter.

We’ve come to accept that Tampa Bay will play opponents close but come up short at the end. The Bucs are 6-12 in games decided by seven points or less with Koetter at the helm.

“Those are two teams that both played hard today and we came out short,” Koetter said after Tampa Bay’s 27-20 loss at Dallas.

We’ve come to accept that Koetter will defend the play of the Bucs offensive line. Yet we see Jameis Winston running for his life on most plays while Tampa Bay’s pass protection looks like a bunch of matadors auditioning for a role in an upcoming bullfight.

“Our offensive line played their tails off,” Koetter said after the Bucs offensive line surrendered eight quarterback hits and three sacks, including one by left tackle Donovan Smith that led to a fumble by quarterback Jameis Winston that was returned 69 yards for a touchdown by Dallas. “In a perfect world, we wouldn’t be throwing 48 times but we did.”

The offensive line had three of the Bucs’ nine penalties on the day – all holding calls.

The first rule of football is “don’t beat yourself.” That means turnovers and penalties. Tampa Bay had two costly fumbles that led to two Dallas touchdowns, in addition to nine penalties for 72 yards.

Bucs LT Donovan Smith and QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

It’s this sort of undisciplined play that we’ve gotten used to under Koetter because we see it all the time. It’s the Bucs’ continual penchant for self-inflicted wounds. It’s the reason why Tampa Bay will have back-to-back double-digit losing seasons for the first time since 2014-15 during Lovie Smith’s terrible two-year tenure.

It’s time to try to change the culture – yet again. It’s time for Dirk Koetter to go.

After another year of several close-but-not-close-enough losses from Koetter’s Bucs I haven’t seen any evidence that it will suddenly change for the better in 2019. Have you?

I don’t think the Glazers have either, and their refusal to settle for mediocrity will likely having them fire Koetter next Monday. That’s what happens to head coaches that have back-to-back losing seasons in Tampa Bay. Just ask Smith and Greg Schiano.

Maybe Jameis Winston is a coach killer, and his 0-12 record in road games over the past two years and penchant for turnovers is the reason for Koetter’s eventual demise. Or maybe Winston needs a fresh start and to have a new coach in his ear to help take him to the next level – if that’s possible.

Bucs fans aren’t going to put up with another year of Koetter at the helm. There were tens of thousands of empty seats at Raymond James Stadium for the last three home games. I’m guessing the Bucs will be lucky to have 40,000 fans in the stands for the season finale against Atlanta.

Heck, even the Stick Carriers – the Koetter-worshipping fans of two years ago – changed their name to Bucs Mob and are fed up with him.

Make no mistake. Fans don’t pay money to see coaches walk the sidelines and coach. They pay money to see players play football – competently. Ten wins in the last 31 games is not competent football.

And that needs to change.

There hasn’t been enough accountability under Koetter in Tampa Bay where mediocrity has come to be accepted. George Warhop has remained the offensive line coach despite years of not developing talent and just mediocre line play in most games.

Defensive coordinator Mike Smith was allowed to return after a dismal showing by the defense a year ago and then was fired a few weeks too late this season.

Caleb Benenoch hasn’t been benched at left guard despite playing awful this year. Brent Grimes hasn’t been benched despite looking disinterested in tackling or defending a pass all year while collecting checks totaling $8 million as he counts down the days to his retirement.

Cowboys DE Randy Gregory – Photo by: Getty Images

One thing that Koetter has done right this year is put together an explosive offense. Well, for at least most of the year.

Tampa Bay’s offense has sputtered in December, scoring 14, 12 and 20 points in the last three games and scoring a collective 10 points in the second halves of those three contests – all losses. The timing couldn’t have been worse for Tampa Bay’s offense to sputter as it relates to Koetter’ future with the Buccaneers.

At this point, I can’t think of a good reason why the Glazers shouldn’t make a change at head coach next Monday.

STATEMENT 2: Maybe Martindale Is Worth A Look
When it comes to hot coordinators that have yet to have a shot at a head coaching opportunity, Dallas secondary coach Kris Richard is one of the most buzz-worthy names out there right now. While Richard made a name for himself in Seattle as the secondary coach during the “Legion of Boom” days and his Dallas defensive backs have played well. But the real defensive-minded head coaching candidate worth a look is Baltimore defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale.

If the Bucs can’t – or won’t – pull of a trade for Martindale’s boss, John Harbaugh, who got the vote of approval to return to Baltimore in 2019, perhaps raiding the Ravens for their defensive coordinator would be the next best move?

The 55-year old Martindale has coached in the NFL for 15 years (Raiders LBs 2004-08, Broncos LBs 2009, Broncos DC 2010, Ravens LBs 2012-17, Ravens DC 2018), and has been terrific in his first year as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator. The Ravens defense ranks first in total defense (290.2 ypg), first in scoring defense (18.1 ppg), third in pass defense (202.6 ypg), third in rushing defense (87.6 ypg), third in third down percentage (34 percent) and 10th in sacks.

The Ravens’ top-ranked defense put on quite a show on Saturday night at San Diego, sacking Philip Rivers four times and picking him off twice, while holding the Chargers to less than 250 yards and just 10 points. I’m sorry, but that’s more impressive to me than what Richard has done in Dallas this year.

Tampa Bay’s defense has played much better under new defensive coordinator Mark Duffner, and that was evident on Sunday in Dallas. The Bucs held the Cowboys offense to 20 points and 232 yards while completing 33 percent of their third downs. Ezekiel Elliott had just 85 yards on 18 carries as Dallas ran for only 80 yards on 24 carries (3.3 avg.). Amari Cooper was held to just four catches for 20 yards.

But Tampa Bay missed two chances for takeaways when middle linebacker Adarius Taylor dropped what could have been a pick-six, and defensive end Carl Nassib couldn’t recover a forced fumble by cornerback Carlton Davis. The Bucs only had one pass defensed and just one sack. Not enough to beat a playoff team at home.

Duffner has done an admirable job since replacing Mike Smith near midseason, but the Bucs need to return to their roots and become a dominant defense once more. That should be the organizational goal – to win with defense. It’s as much attitude and mindset as it is scheme and players, and it would be interesting to see if a guy like Martindale, who won a Super Bowl in Baltimore in 2012 and led the Ravens’ kick-ass defense this year, could come in and change the culture in Tampa Bay.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Was Winston To Blame For His Fumble?
No. I’m not blaming Jameis Winston for his fumble in the first quarter that turned into a Dallas touchdown. Winston escaped pressure as the pocket collapsed and was looking downfield to throw when he was hit from behind by defensive end Randy Gregory and fumbled the ball. Cowboys linebacker Jaylon Smith scooped up the ball and raced 69 yards for a touchdown to put Dallas up 14-0.

But the problem was that left tackle Donovan Smith wheeled Gregory around the pocket rather than staying on his block and trying to mirror the Dallas defensive end. That’s the kind of occasional laziness that drives fans and some at One Buccaneer Place crazy and separates Smith from being a great left tackle.

Cowboys DE Randy Gregory – Photo by: Getty Images

Gregory nailed Winston, who didn’t see him coming from behind, and the ball popped out. More often than not, offensive tackles wheeling defensive ends up the field and around the quarterback is typically good enough on most downs. At the end of the day, it is an offensive lineman’s job to stay in front of the man he’s blocking at all times. Instead of doing that, Smith just shoved Gregory around and he kept coming after Winston.

“That’s probably one of the things that Dallas is best at,” Koetter said. “Their guys are relentless chasing the football. Jameis has made a lot of plays like that this year. He knows that guys are always coming up behind him but he’s made a lot of big plays like that, too, so you can’t don’t do that. He’s trying to play. He’s one step away from making a big play.”

Smith is in a contract year and hasn’t been playing like it, allowing 6.5 sacks and getting flagged for several penalties this year.

QUESTION 2: Who Is Bucs’ Second-Best Receiver?
We all know Mike Evans is the best receiver in Tampa Bay and he led the way for the team again in Dallas with six catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. That pushed his season totals to 80 receptions for 1,418 yards and six touchdowns, leaving Evans just five yards shy of breaking Mark Carrier’s Bucs single season receiving yardage record of 1,422 set back in 1989.

Evans has had a career year in terms of yards and yards after catch, while breaking the Bucs’ career receiving yardage and touchdown records this season. But he isn’t the only playmaking chain-mover in Tampa Bay’s passing game.

After Sunday’s 10-catch, 79-yard performance in Dallas, slot receiver Adam Humphries solidified his standing for second place behind Evans when it comes to receptions, and he’s inching closer to becoming second in terms of receiving yards. Humphries has had a career year and now has 71 catches for 750 yards and five touchdowns.

Bucs WR Adam Humphries – Photo by: Getty Images

Humphries passed Chris Godwin, who has 53 catches for 728 yards and five touchdowns on the year and only trails DeSean Jackson, who has 774 yards and four touchdowns on 41 catches this season.

Humphries is in a contract year and is showing how important he is to Tampa Bay’s passing game. While middle linebacker Kwon Alexander and left tackle Donovan Smith are also awaiting contract extensions from the Buccaneers before free agency begins in March, they need to get in line behind Humphries. He’s done the most to earn a big, new payday in Tampa Bay.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Santos Is The Bucs Kicker In 2019
After making his first 12 kicks in Tampa Bay, kicker Cairo Santos had a couple of missed field goals against New Orleans that made some question whether or not he would succumb to the poor kicking curse that has plagued the Bucs organization since Matt Bryant was released a decade ago. But after making both field goal attempts at Baltimore, Santos connected on two of three field goals in Dallas, including a 45-yarder, with his lone miss coming from 52 yards away.

He’s made 7-of-10 field goals this year in Tampa Bay, and while a 70 percent connect rate doesn’t look great, that’s because of the relatively small sample size of kicks. If Santos goes 2-of-2 next week against Atlanta his field goal percentage would rise to 75 percent, so I’m not alarmed by his 70 percent accuracy in his six weeks in Tampa Bay.

Santos has made all 15 extra points in Tampa Bay and appears to have solidified his standing as the Bucs kicker next year. Santos signed a one-year, $790,000 contract and should receive a contract extension from general manager Jason Licht – or whoever is presiding over the team in 2019. Santos isn’t a great kicker, but he’s proven to be better than most of the other kickers brought in over the years.

PREDICTION 2: Vea Is Going To Be A Heck Of A Player
Bucs defensive tackle Vita Vea is showing why he was drafted in the first round with his improved play in recent weeks. After a nine-tackle performance at Baltimore last week, Vea had three tackles at Dallas and the Bucs’ lone sack of the game.

Bucs DT Vita Vea – Photo by: Getty Images

That pushes his season totals to 24 tackles and three sacks, which compares favorably to the rookie seasons of the two best defensive tackles in Tampa Bay history – Hall of Famer Warren Sapp and six-time Pro Bowler Gerald McCoy. Sapp had 27 tackles and three sacks while playing in 16 games with eight starts in 1995. McCoy had 27 tackles and three sacks while starting and playing in 13 games in 2010.

Vea missed the first three games of the year with a calf injury, in addition to most of training camp and all of the preseason, and concludes his rookie year next Sunday at Atlanta. It’s exciting to think what lies ahead of Vea if he can stay healthy next summer and work on his craft in training camp and the preseason.