BREAKING NEWS: GRUDEN SAYS HE WANTS TO COACH AGAIN

About the author

Scott Reynolds

Scott Reynolds is in his 23rd year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds enjoys giving back to the community as the defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: [email protected]

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29 Comments

  1. 1

    jshumaker

    Sticking with your 2-point conversion theme, I would like to add that the Bucs start going for more 2 point conversions. Based on their success already on 2 point conversions and Aguayo’s pathetic record, why not go for them more often?

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    1. 1.1

      Naplesfan

      The answer is math and probabilities.

      Aguayo is 24 of 26 extra point attempts – 93.6% for the season, within is within 0.6% of the league average this season, and he hasn’t missed any extra point attempts in the last 5 games.

      Two point conversions are a much lower probability. Season to date, the Bucs are just 4 out of 7 (57.1%), which is good enough to rank 9th in the league this season, though four of the eight teams that rank higher that the Bucs have only attempted 3 or fewer two-point plays. Only one team in the league has attempted more 2-pointers than the Bucs – the Steelers – but they converted on only 37.5% of their attempts. Half the league teams are converting 37.5% or fewer 2-pointers this season.

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      1. 1.1.1

        Pick6

        @naplesfan, assuming the percentages maintain the historical trend, you’ve just disproved your own point. the bucs have 8 points on 7 TDs going for 2, even a perfect aguayo would serve up less points. statistically, going for 2 is the more productive choice no matter who your kicker is. game situations and the like come into play, but with a player like aguayo who seems to let one bad kick turn into multiple bad kicks, limiting his attempts this year might be the best way for him to survive 2016 to compete for his job in year 2

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        1. 1.1.1.1

          Naplesfan

          Pick6 – yes, but coaches don’t have confidence that their teams will convert on as many as the Bucs have so far this year … as I said, half the teams convert at 37.5% or less (some at 0%). On 7 TDs the typical team will convert only 2-3 attempts, resulting in 4-6 points … where coaches expect 94% on extra points resulting in 6-7 points on those 7 attempts.

          NFL coaches are conservative and will not go for 2 points unless there is a particularly compelling reason, such as what happened yesterday at SD. With a kick, we’d only be at a score of 27-21, so if SD scored a TD late they could win the game with an extra point kick, or be forced to go for two which is a lower percentage. So in that particular circumstance late in a close game, going for two made good sense. But going for two in the long run will produce fewer points for most teams.

          In the long run, in any form of gambling, the house always wins. It’s only in the short run that a player can beat the house.

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          1. 1.1.1.1.1

            wnb0395

            I agree with Naples fan. Aguayo has been pretty good lately and deserves to be our kicker at least to the end of the season. It takes rookies some time to adjust to the NFL and it appears it took him 5 weeks. Even Janikowski started off his rookie season shaky. He almost got cut. Over the last 8 games Aguayo has looked the part. That doesn’t stop me from cringing every time he kicks a field goal though. If the Bucs would just be more efficient in the red zone and score more TDs we wouldn’t have to worry about this problem.

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      2. 1.1.2

        jshumaker

        for the record i said more often, not always

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  2. 2

    Naplesfan

    Unlike Scott, I don’t believe that the Bucs’ chances of winning the NFC South are slim at all.

    I like the chances of the Falcs losing AT LEAST two, and quite plausibly three of their remaining four games, including division losses to New Orleans and Caroline. I also like the chances of the Bucs winning at least three of our last four games. That gives us an out right division championship.

    I even like the chances of the Bucs winning out, including a road win against the Cowboys. That is how well the Bucs are playing, and how up and down all three of our division foes are playing right now.

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  3. 3

    Keith F

    Nice article. The Chargers are no joke, they should have a much better record so like you said it was a quality win! I was nervous Seattle ate too much turkey and overlooked us but they’re making me a believer!

    I don’t feel Marpet missed Bosa on that stunt, I was so pissed that the refs didn’t call Defensive Holding. The DT clearly grabbed Marpet and pulled him into a 3-way collision with Dotson, opening the door for Bosa to get to Winston.

    Can’t wait for the game Sunday!

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  4. 4

    stlbucsfan

    The Bucs are playing good football but at some point something must be done about the worst kicker in the league. Statiscally he’s the worst and he’s not even reliable on chip shots. We have been able to overcome his shortcomings thus far but that wont always be the case. Bring in some competition for the kid and if he crumbles under that pressure then he’s clearly not the guy for the job. Would hate to see a great season go down the tubes bc of a kicker thats been awful all season being gifted a job free of competition.

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    1. 4.1

      Naplesfan

      You’re not paying attention to facts, stl … you’re still stuck in his first three games in the league when he had a slow start.

      Since Week 5, Aguayo has made 14 of 16 field goal attempts (87.5%) which is considerably better than the league average, and in that same timeframe he’s 16 of 17 extra points which is equal to the league average this year on extra point attempts. He’s been named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week in Week 11 – just two weeks ago.

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      1. 4.1.1

        stlbucsfan

        Naplesfan, you are overlooking the only fact that matters. He’s the only kicker with at least 20 FGs that’s making LESS than 70 percent of his kicks and it’s by a wide margin. His long on the year is 43 yards yet another LOW for all kickers eligible. He missed a chip shot this past week but we were good enough as a team to overcome it. Now I know you are in love with his percent on extra points but Im certainly not going to give him glowing reviews for what he should be doing. Anybody that says they know they are getting from him at any distance is lying bc I get nervous every XP, chip shot FG and thats not even taking into account the longer FGS which as a team arent even an option bc the guy barely makes kicks from 40 and in. Just dont want to see us lose a game late bc we were too foolish to correct whats a rather obvious shortcoming on the roster.

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        1. 4.1.1.1

          Naplesfan

          I’m not overlooking a thing .. I am looking at Aguayo’s performance in his last 8 games which is very different than his performance in the first four games. He is a rookie, and like all rookies, there is an NFL learning curve. It applies just as much to Noah Spence, for instance, whose performance in the first month of the season bears no resemblance whatsoever to the last two months. He has clearly learned a lot in the last half season, as has Aguayo. Ditto with Vernon Hargreaves.

          Same thing even applies to the entire defense. In the first four games of these season, our D was in the top one to three worst defenses in the league, giving up 32 PPG. In the last 8 games, however, our D has improved tremendously, as every single observer of the Bucs has noted in the last several weeks. We’ve given up an average of only 19.6 PPG in the last 8 games.

          You wouldn’t try to make the argument that our Defense today is the same as it was 12 weeks ago. Same is true of Aguayo.

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      2. 4.1.2

        stlbucsfan

        Plus im saying he needs competition not firing him outright. If we bring in people and he outkicks them then ok but standing pat sends the message that hes doing a good enough job and hes not.

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        1. 4.1.2.1

          Naplesfan

          Nobody is going to bring in competition, let alone fire, the NFLSpecial Teams player of the week who is performing at or much better than the average of all league’s kicker over the last two months.

          You’re being ridiculous.

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          1. 4.1.2.1.1

            stlbucsfan

            All I know is that in spite of his improvement he still missed a 31 yard chip in picture perfect field conditions. So again yes he’s improved but in some instances improvement still doesnt mean your better than what can be found on the streets. If I was a student getting F’s then got a 95 on a test or two and became a C student that doesnt mean I’m invincible. His “improvement” still equates to a guy missing 31

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  5. 5

    cgmaster27

    Question 1: The Bucs can absolutely be a force on the road when need be because winning road games is a mindset. Having Robert Ayers come to this team might have been the biggest signing of this off season player wise. He was a perfect compliment to the defense as Jameis is to the offense. Our record indicates we would be no easy out that is for sure.
    Question 2: Jameis is indeed making his mark, as us “homer” noles fans knew he would. This isn’t just about stats either as he has maneuvered a culture change in this team that was more needed than anything. He has complete command of the huddle and is making the right reads now. I said it when he was drafted that he would have us in the playoffs within 3 years and I was “homered”. And he is doing this with Mike Evans and a bunch of no names. He makes everyone around him better and that’s his talent you can’t find at the combine. Although as I have stated last week, has anyone noticed how much better his mechanics have gotten? The high throws have almost completely disappeared and he has been WAY more accurate. And the great part is this is just the beginning. This kid is only 22
    Statement 1: I would love to see Hargreaves get his first pick this week. Brees looked like ass against the Lions this week and that was in NO. Hargreaves has been playing fantastic and has made some big plays, The picks will come soon. He is playing much better than I anticipated.
    Statement 2: There is nothing more I would love than beating the saint and getting another home win. And this is very possible. Brees will give you some chances so you have to take them. Continuing to get pressure will be key as if Brees has time, forget about it. I would love to see about 4 more sacks, but not too hard, Brees is one of the darlings if you hit too hard, you’ll get 15 yards.

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  6. 6

    csnuffzp

    It is so exciting seeing this team coming together. When I watch the games even I believe they are going to win, no matter how it happens. It is an incredible feeling. Before the Seattle game Winston and Hargreaves (mic’d up) met on the field and you hear Winston tell him, “back to back games, like a champ, you know what I’m saying, you’re on my team now…” Seeing these two and knowing they are the young face of this franchise for years to come is exciting. MANY young faces, seeing all of these guys learning to succeed together as a family is exciting. Right now it’s is all about the Saints… that stadium is going to be rocking this weekend! Loving my Bucs!

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  7. 7

    plopes808

    I see us going 3-1 and possibly 4-0 over the remainder of the season. New Orleans is a high powered offense with no defense. If we can slow down the pass game, our offense is good enough that we win. The way our defense has been playing lately that is highly likely. Carolina shouldn’t be a problem.

    Dallas is the big test, we’ve had a little trouble stopping the run and that O-line will give our D-line problems. I think we’re still good enough to win though, especially if they’re already resting some of their starters.

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  8. 8

    chetthevette

    Nice article Scott. But here comes the but. I think the bucks have just as good of a chance to win the south for one reason. Better coaching. Both Koetter and Smith are better that Quinn and whoever the hell runs the defense for the chickens.
    I did not bother to fact check you but you are saying that if Winston passes for 83 yards in the remaining games he will pass Marino and Manning?
    That’s Dan Marino and Peyton Manning, right?
    I’ll ask that again.
    That’s Dan Marino and Peyton Manning, right?
    Close your eyes here comes an F Bomb. Sometimes it’s just right.
    FUCKING AWESOME!!!!!!!
    GO BUCS

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  9. 9

    chetthevette

    Quick aside.
    I’m not going to raise hell about Roberto. He is getting enough ass chewing by his coaches.
    Keep your chin up kid.
    GO BUCS

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  10. 10

    surferdudes

    I think part of the Bucs problems running the ball is predictability. Seems to me they run on first down like 90 percent of the time. It’s their tendency, even after a big completion, back to the run on first down. When was the last time Dirk let Jameis wing three, four in a row? They need to change it up once and awhile, and let the passing game, open things up for the running game. Warhop can yell at Dotson all he wants, he is what he is, needs to be replaced. Hawley is scrappy, but is a notch above average, will never dominate at point of attack. It’s time to draft a center that can grow with Jameis. Marpet might be our only O lineman that has pro bowl talent, until that changes, this unit will continue to struggle.

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  11. 11

    Horse

    Very good Article. I thought I saw Martin with a slight limp. My concern is not RB, but how long Stocker is down for. Maybe we should bring the TE up from the PS? As to WR’s; as long as humphries can past protocall we’re okay. If he can’t then we have to bring up someone with some decent experience.

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  12. 12

    drdneast

    Uhhhhh, I hate to spoil all of you peoples fun in regards to the need to replace
    Arroyo, but the real question is shouldn’t we have a kicker who cam make a field goal from the 2 yard line, but why should we need a field goal kicker if we have gotten it inside the 10 yard for a first down.
    This team’s TD scoring needs to improve inside the red zone or it won’t matter how many chip shot field goals you make, you will inevitably start losing games to the better teams in the NFL.

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    1. 12.1

      scubog

      Good point Dr.D. Score TD’s and it’s not an issue. As much as it pained me when Roberto missed the FG right before the half; as Naples pointed out, he is doing a little better than when he started the season. I do expect next Training Camp will include another kicker for insurance. I know a lot of rookie kickers struggle, which is why they often bounce around for a few years before settling on a team. For a while I thought he was rushing his kicks, but this week he looked like he was aiming it. I’m not ready to give him the “Capece is Kaput” roster move just yet.

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    2. 12.2

      Naplesfan

      Our red zone efficiency is atrocious this season, even throughout our 4-game winning streak. It needs to get better.

      Coach Koetter seems to believe that running Martin up the gut from 2 or 4 yards out, when the defense has 9 or even 11 guys in the box on the goal line is a high percentage play. It’s obviously not. Yes, occasionally Martin can sneak one over as he did yesterday, but as a percentage conversion rate it’s not good.

      I’d like to see us do more creative playcalling down in the red zone. Try play action passes to our tall receivers (Evans and Brate), halfback end-arounds, quarterback keepers (Jameis is actually pretty good on those plays, but we hardly ever call them this season), etc. etc. Because we’re so predictable, we greatly limit our success.

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      1. 12.2.1

        Naplesfan

        To put things in numerical perspective, the Bucs are currently 31st in the league in red zone scoring over the last three games! 20th in the league for the entire season.

        This has gotta get fixed, and our kicker hitting more than the 87.5% of his field goals (higher than the league average) is not the solution.

        We need more red zone TDs … a LOT more.

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  13. 13

    cgmaster27

    Saw a mind blowing stat about Jameis today. His QBR when being blitzed is 87.1. That is 21 points higher than the next closest guy and the highest since they started tracking that stat in 2009. That is just nuts.

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    1. 13.1

      Naplesfan

      Interesting. Jameis obviously isn’t bothered at all by pressure … and because it doesn’t bother him, blitzers aren’t there to cover his receivers. He’s also very good in throwing the ball while on the run.

      Maybe there’s a solution to our crappy red zone offense in there somewhere … maybe Jameis needs to be coached to run the ball in himself more often. He did that last year quite a few times but we’ve hardly seen it this season. I imagine his coaches asked him to stop putting his body at risk to get into the end zone, and that is a real risk. But if he’s scrambling to look for a receiver under pressure, and we’re only a coupla yards out, I’d love to see him take it into the end zone. That in turn will probably cause defenses to “spy” Jameis, which removes another defender from pass defense.

      If I were Koetter, I’d think about changing up his instruction. Because right now, over the last three games, the Bucs are the second worst red zone offense in the entire league. Something else has to change if we are going to win three or four more games this season.

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      1. 13.1.1

        cgmaster27

        I think our red zone woes are a combination of a few things. For one, we’ve had very untimely penalties that cost us two TD’s that I can think of off the top of my head. Those two alone produce a much better percentage. But on top of that , I’d agree with you that Koetter should switch it up a bit in the red zone. He’s called run far too often on first down and it’s getting slightly predictable. Every time Jameis rolls out and has an option, it’;s usually successful. It would’ve again this week, he just missed Mike crossing over. Just little things, although playing two top 5 defenses also factors in a bit here.

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