Over the next few weeks until the season, I’ll be ranking each position group around the NFL. I began with quarterbacks and wide receivers, and now we turn the page to tight ends. Who takes the top spot, George Kittle or Travis Kelce? Should Darren Waller be in the conversation with those two? Is Rob Gronkowski still a top 5 TE? Who are the next great talents at tight end? Where should Zach Ertz be ranked at this point in his career?

No rookies were included in these rankings. It’s simply impossible to rank guys who have never played in the NFL against guys who have. The evaluation process wouldn’t be clean. Sorry, Kyle Pitts.

I’ve also compiled these rankings with an eye toward 2021 projections, although I tried not to do anything too outlandish. It’s important to remember that rankings like this are largely fluid year-to-year, especially when you get outside the first five tight ends. But this is how I expect tight end play to stack up across the NFL in 2021.

Tier 1 – The Elite TEs

1. George Kittle, 49ers
2. Travis Kelce, Chiefs
3. Darren Waller, Raiders

If Chiefs and 49ers fans can put their bias aside, they’ll realize it’s impossible to say that ranking either Kittle or Kelce No. 1 is wrong. Both are as good as it gets at the position, and anyone saying one is clearly better than the other has an agenda.

But we don’t sit on fences here at Pewter Report, so Kittle is my pick. The reasons I give him an edge over Kelce are blocking and YAC. Kelce is a good blocker, Kittle is the best blocking tight end in the NFL. He’s a legit difference maker as a blocker, in-line or on the move. That is so, so rare.

Kittle is also probably already the best tight end in NFL history after the catch. In 2018 and 2019, no tight end or wide receiver was even close to Kittle’s total YAC, and his YAC/catch was first and fifth among all pass catchers those two seasons, respectively. Kelce has always been a very good post-catch receiver, but Kittle is something we’ve never seen before from the position. His creativity, elusiveness and tackle-breaking are off the charts.

Last year Kittle played less than eight full games, and was still fifth among all tight ends in YAC. His yards per route run dwarfed the rest of the league. Despite struggling with injuries, Kittle was on pace for over 1,300 yards for the second time in his four-year career. And he’s done it all without elite quarterback play.

Kelce is a marvelous talent and a first ballot Hall of Famer. During Rob Gronkowski’s prime, Kelce was closer to Gronk’s level of play than most would admit. He’s posted five straight 1,000-yard seasons, three straight 1,200-yard seasons and he’s never dipped below 862 yards in a season since finding his way onto the field in 2014. He is a special, special player.

Some might be surprised with Waller’s inclusion in this tier, but two straight years of elite production gets it done. Only 21 tight ends in NFL history have ever reached 1,000 yards in a season, and only 12 have done it at least twice. Waller is now part of that elite small group, which exclusively includes 11 of the best tight ends to ever play. There are no flukes in there.

According to Pro Football Focus, Waller caught 73 percent of contested catch targets last year, a better mark than Kelce or Kittle. He’s an elite athlete that can create splash plays downfield or dominate in the red zone. And he’s as sure-handed as any tight end in the league. There’s no doubt about it, Waller is Tier 1 elite.

Tier 2 – Very Good Starters

4. Rob Gronkowski, Bucs
5. Mark Andrews, Ravens

Most would be surprised to learn that Gronkowski – not Kelce or Waller – was the most productive deep threat amongst all tight ends in the league last year. The future Hall of Famer led the way in deep (20+ air yards) catches and targets, per PFF. Gronkowski was also an elite blocker and pass protector, which was critical at times in the playoffs. His two-touchdown performance in the Super Bowl will simply add to his incredible legacy.

Andrews struggled to start the 2020 season, a campaign that was supposed to move him into Tier 1 with Waller. He finished the season in impressive fashion however, with five 60+ yard performances. Andrews is a good starter who can win at all three levels, but he’s not the special talent the top tier guys are.

Tier 3 – Good & On The Rise?

6. Dallas Goedert, Eagles
7. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins
8. Noah Fant, Broncos
9. T.J. Hockenson, Lions

The jury is totally out on what these guys could be in the NFL. They’ve all begun to produce at a level that suggests they are on the rise, but 1-2 could also plummet down the board after this upcoming season. It’s amazing how much this position drops off after the premier players.

That’s not to say these guys are bad; they aren’t at all. But can any of them be special? To me, Gesicki has the best chance. It’s taken a few years, but Gesicki has the most highlight-reel plays of the group. Some of the contested catches or full extension grabs he makes are amazing. The downside? Gesicki still can’t block a lick and he’s a non-factor with the ball in his hands. I doubt that is going to change moving forward.

Despite the presence of Ertz, Goedert has had plenty of opportunities to be “the guy” in Philly, and his output has just been ok. He’s a good, solid all-around receiving tight end who will block. His consistency gets him the No. 6 spot, but this level of play might also be his ceiling.

Hockenson and Fant are former college teammates, but two very different stories in the NFL. Fant has shown special ability as a post-catch threat and has the athleticism to be up a tier or two someday. But consistency has been a struggle, although better quarterback play would probably help.

Hockenson has already proven to be a quality starter in his second season, but can he be better than that? Is there anything special about his game? At Iowa he looked like an elite player, but in the NFL he may not have the athleticism for that level of play. Year 3 will be telling.

Tier 4 – Solid Starters

10. Hunter Henry, Patriots
11. Austin Hooper, Browns
12. O.J. Howard, Bucs
13. Robert Tonyan, Packers
14. Tyler Higbee, Rams
15. Zach Ertz, Eagles
16. Evan Engram, Giants
17. Jonnu Smith, Patriots
18. Logan Thomas, Washington
19. Dalton Schultz, Cowboys
20. Jared Cook, Chargers

Four guys excite me on this list, we just need to see more production and/or consistency from them before moving them up.

O.J. Howard looked like he was locking himself into the top 10 tight ends in the NFL in 2018, his second season in the league. After a solid rookie season, Howard had 34 catches for 565 yards and five touchdowns through the first 10 weeks of the year. Then, injuries struck and have barely let up since. Howard struggled to get going in a new offense in 2019, battled injuries, then broke out some toward the end of the season. In 2020, after dominating training camp, Howard posted 11 catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns before a torn Achilles in Week 4 ended his season.

If the Bucs no. 2 tight end can stay on the field, I think he’s going to be at least a tier 3 tight end. There’s a lot of balls to go around in the Bucs offense, but Brady raves about Howard. The biggest question is health.

Speaking of breakouts that should have come but didn’t, Higbee’s 2020 season was frustrating. He can easily be a top ten tight end in the NFL, which was evident in his 69-734-3 season in 2019. But Higbee went back to being underutilized as a receiver in 2020. Matt Stafford has always loved targeting the tight end position, so Higbee’s breakout could still be on the way this year.

I don’t know where Robert Tonyan came from, but I saw enough of him last year to know he can be a tier 3 tight end too. A 27-year old, undrafted unknown from Iowa State, Tonyan exploded in his fourth season for 52 catches, 586 yards and 11 touchdowns. Playing with Aaron Rodgers helps, but Tonyan caught an absurd 6o of 66 targets last year. Zero drops. I’d throw to a guy that reliable a lot too.

The last guy I’ll mention is Logan Thomas. After years of bouncing around the league, Thomas erupted out of nowhere for a 72-670-6 season. Most of his production came underneath due to the limitations of his quarterbacks, so there are still elements of Thomas’ game we need to see more of in 2021. He’s 30 years old already, so expectations should be tempered. But Washington might be able to get a few solid years out of the former college quarterback before he hangs it up.