The Bucs dropped a winnable game in familiar fashion. After a 26-19 overtime loss to the Steelers after Tampa Bay was up 13-0 with two minutes left in the first half, the first question head coach Todd Bowles was faced with in his post-game press conference asked him to share what he told his team. His answer is telling.

“We’ve got no margin for error. We played hard. We played very hard, very competitive. We’ve got to learn to finish ball games and that’s all three phases. Had a chance to finish the ball game. We didn’t finish it at the end. You play that hard and you grab a lead; you’ve got to keep it. And it’s all the little things in between. But we practice two minute for a reason and both sides of the ball and we got to finish the ball game and they understand that as a team and we have no more margin for error.”

“We’ve got to learn to finish ball games…”

University of Todd Bowles

A typical college degree is a four-year program. The Bucs are now in year five with Bowles as the head coach. In collegiate terms the team is in the graduate program. Apparently learning how to finish ball games wasn’t a part of the bachelor program. That’s unacceptable. That answer is unacceptable. When a head coach has to come in and take over a historically losing program, learning to close out games can be seen as a year two or year three course.

But Bowles didn’t take over a losing program. In the two years that proceeded his ascension to the big seat the Bucs were 29-10 including the playoffs. In games they were leading as they entered the fourth quarter, they were 24-1. They ranked 3rd amongst teams with at least 10 opportunities. The Bucs knew how to close out games prior to Bowles taking over.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay is 30-7 in games where they were leading as they entered the 4th quarter under Bowles’ direction. That may seem like an impressive record, but their .811-win percentage in those situations over the past five seasons is 16th in the league and represents a five-loss variation from their previous close rate. The Bucs haven’t just failed to learn how to close out games. They actively lost the skill with him at the helm.

The Grades Are Bad

Entering this game the Bucs were 36-37 in the regular season under Bowles. Their .493 winning percentage ranks 18th in the NFL over that time period. Add in his time in New York as well as his stint as interim head coach in Miami back in 2011 and he’s 62-78 (.443) for his career. Some may say that’s a C- or D+ grade. But looking at his record in isolation fails to account for important context.

Per Pro Football Reference, there have been 72 head coaches who have coached at least 140 games. Bowles ranks 68th in win percentage. That’s the 6th percentile. That’s not a C- performance. That’s not a D+ performance. That’s an F if I ever saw one. This isn’t a team issue. It’s a coaching issue. His team hasn’t learned how to close out ball games because he has failed to teach them how to. And to expect that to happen in his fifth year with the team —his graduate program if you will — is an exercise in futility.

The end is near for the Todd Bowles era in Tampa Bay. And the postmortem on what went wrong can draw a straight line to his inability to teach the very thing he admitted they have failed to learn. The NFL is too hard to give away late leads. And closing out games is too critical of a skill to wait five years to get down.