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About the Author: Trevor Sikkema

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Trevor Sikkema is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat reporter and NFL Draft analyst for PewterReport.com. Sikkema, an alumnus of the University of Florida, has covered both college and professional football for much of his career. As a native of the Sunshine State, when he's not buried in social media, Sikkema can be found out and active, attempting to be the best athlete he never was. Sikkema can be reached at: [email protected]
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Cover 3 is a weekly feature column written by PewterReport.com’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat writer Trevor Sikkema published every Tuesday. The column, as its name suggests, comes in three phases: a statistical observation, an in-depth film breakdown, and a “this or that” segment where the writer asks the reader to chose between two options.

SIKKEMA’S STAT OF THE WEEK

Each of us loves the game of football for our own reasons. For some, it’s the game they grew up playing. It was what they did all throughout middle and high school, perhaps even into college. I know many who have gone that path that chose to even coach afterwards. For others it might be about memories. I’ve heard so many stories of people watching or going to games with their families and friends. Football helps hold some of our happiest moments. Whatever reason it is, there’s a reason we all keep coming back to the teams we follow, not just every week, but every single day, even in the offseason.

For me, I never played football growing up. I was what you’d call a “late bloomer” in terms of body type and athletic ability in a football sense. I grew up playing hockey (ice and roller), basketball, soccer, some baseball, but never football. Sometimes I really regret it and wish I could have, but other times when I watch guys get absolutely plastered on contact, I’m reminded that my mother was probably right when she said a 5-foot-4, 120-pound soon-to-be-freshman would get killed if he went out for football.

Instead, I found a love and passion for the game through a different spark: virtual reality. Since I couldn’t actually play the game myself, I found myself putting every waking moment of my free time from the years 2002 to about 2009 into the Madden video game franchises. At first, it was the allurement of making plays with the people I controlled that made me obsessed. I’m not sure if I’m incredible proud or extremely embarrassed of how much time was spend drafting and re-drafting and re-drafting and re-drafting.

But from there it grew into mastering the game, not just on the field, but in the playbook, at the GM’s desk and in the war room on draft day. I loved the intricacies of building a team, being efficient with the roster and owning the draft every single year – that train of thought is also why I’ve come to love fantasy football so much.

I know I’m not alone in the love I have for that side of the game. Any football fan who follows the NFL draft, free agency or the trade deadline are all in that same camp to some degree. With that passion often comes a hunger to know more, the desire to not guess on what pick or what signing should be made, but learn how to put value to it and be right more often than not.

That’s what brings us to the first topic of this week’s Cover 3.

In last week’s Fab 5, Scott Reynolds referenced The NFL Draft Value Chart. It’s a tool that draft evaluators and even some NFL teams reference when making or predicting trades on draft day. It’s a simplistic way to put value to each draft pick – and by “simplistic” I mean that it’s obvious not bulletproof in it’s numbers, external forces always come into play. Where some picks may be worth more or less to certain teams than others, this chart gives us somewhat of a common ground from the probability of each selection number being a success in the NFL. Obviously the higher the pick, the higher the chance of success.

Here’s what that chart looks like.

1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd 4th Rd 5th Rd 6th Rd 7th Rd
1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2
2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8
3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4
4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13
5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6
6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2
7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8
8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4
9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11
10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6
11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2
12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8
13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4
14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9
15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6
16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2
 
The chart is out of a max value of 3,000 as seen at the No. 1 overall pick. Basically, the way to use this is with simple addition of a few picks to equal the value of another. For example, if you’re picking No. 1 in the the draft and want to trade down, you would ideally demand a trade that would be worth at least 3,000 points of value. 
 
In my latest first round mock draft, I had the Tampa Bay Buccaneer trading back from No. 19 to No. 26 with the Seattle Seahawks and in exchange getting two bottom-end 3rd round compensatory picks for the move. 
  • Tampa’s No. 19 pick = 875
  • Seattle’s No. 26 = 700
  • Seattle’s No. 102 compensatory pick = 92
  • Seattle’s No. 106 compensatory pick = 82

Since the main chart only calculates scheduled picks and not compensatory picks, we have to use NFL Draft Tek’s Complete 2017 Chart – I would have put that chart in this article, but it’s too big to fit on the page.

So, if we do the math, the Buccaneers would be trading a pick that is valued at 875 points for a package deal from the Seahawks that is worth 874 total points. That’s pretty dang close, and if the Bucs were to negotiate one of those compensatory third round picks into Seattle’s actual third round pick at No. 90, the value for that would be 140 and would give the Bucs a clear gain of value.

Let’s look at the chart value of what the Bucs did last year moving back for Hargreaves and then up in the second round for Aguayo – not taking the players themselves into account, just the value of the selection numbers.

The Bucs traded their No. 9 pick (worth 1,350 in value) back to No. 11 (worth 1,250 in value) to select Hargreaves. The team also received the No. 106 overall 4th round pick from the Bears to move back (worth 82 in value). So with a 100-point value difference between No. 9 and No. 11, the Bucs actually took a bit of a loss by only getting 82 points back from the additional pick.

Later in the draft the team used that No. 106 pick to move up. The Bucs were sitting at No. 74 in the third round (worth 220 in value) and used the No. 106 pick (worth 82 in value) to move up to No. 59 (worth 310 in value) to select Roberto Aguayo. In that instance, the Bucs came out on top in terms of value for the move with an 8-point gain.

Just for fun let’s look at some of the biggest draft trades from the NFL and see what their value was according to the chart.

The Jared Goff Trade

  • Titans No. 1 (2016) = 3,000

FOR

  • Rams No. 15 (2016) = 1,050
  • Rams No. 43 (2016) = 470
  • Rams No. 45 (2016) = 450
  • Rams No. 76 (2016) = 210
  • Rams 1st Rd 2017 = ~ 1,050
  • Rams 3rd Rd 2017 = ~ 230

Since the Rams didn’t know exactly what picks they were trading in the 2017 year, we had to make an educated guess for what they might have been thinking at the time of the deal. I put their value of the 2017 1st round pick right in the middle at 1,050 and the same with their 3rd round pick. Even then, the Rams took a value loss of 3,460 points given up to only 3,000 back for the top pick.

However, now that we know what the Rams ultimately gave up, that number gets even worse since the 2017 picks turned out to be No. 5 (worth 1,700 in value) and No. 83 (worth 175) which means the Rams actually gave up 4,055 points.

The value wasn’t good and the pick itself might have been even worse.

The Julio Jones Trade

  • Browns No. 6 (2011) = 1,600

FOR

  • Falcons No. 26 (2011) = 700
  • Falcons No. 59 (2011) = 310
  • Falcons No. 124 (2011) = 48
  • Falcons 1st Rd 2012 = ~ 800
  • Falcons 4th Rd 2012 = ~ 60

By once again taking some sort of medium for what the future year’s picks would have been at the time of the trade, the Falcons ended up giving 1,918 points of estimated value for the Browns’ single pick worth 1,600. 

Those 2012 pick ended up being No. 22 (worth 780 in value) and No. 118 (worth 58 in value) which doesn’t change much.

This year Falcons Thomas Dimitroff was asked if all that was worth it for one player and he said,

“Absolutely” 

The Ricky Williams Trade

This is one of my favorite trades in football history because it’s so ridiculous.

  • Washington No. 5 pick (1999) = 1,700

FOR

  • Saints No. 12 pick (1999) = 1,200
  • Saints No. 71 pick (1999) = 235
  • Saints No. 107 pick (1999) = 80
  • Saints No. 144 pick (1999) = 34
  • Saints No. 179 pick (1999) = 19.8
  • Saints No. 218 pick (1999) = 4.2
  • Saints 1st Rd 2000 = ~ 1,050
  • Saints 3rd Rd 2000 = ~ 60

In this trade, the Saints gave every single pick they had in the 1999 NFL Draft and two extra picks at the top half of the 2000 draft to move up just seven spot for running back Ricky Williams. At the time of the trade, they gave up an estimated 2,683 points which is over 1,000 points in the red – or the value of a No. 16 first round pick.

However, when you factor in that the Saints ended up picking No. 2 overall the following year and No. 64 in the picks they gave away, that value lost goes up to 4,443 points which is nearly a No. 1 overall pick of value lost in the deal. 

Crazy.

Now, look, I’m sure I’m going to get people in the comment section talking about this value chart meaning nothing because it can’t take into account what player is being selected and blah, blah. Look, take a deep breath, it’s OK.

Like I referenced earlier, this not a chart to judge on whether a pick itself is good or not; that part happens on the field. But, when it comes to the war room. This chart gives us a good reference as to what general managers may be thinking in terms of movement on draft night. It takes two to tango in trades, and this chart is a way to get teams closer to a deal since interpretations can often be so far apart. The best general managers know how to work teams whose backs are against the wall to acquire gains in movement more times than not.

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