Bucs GM Jason Licht and head coach Dirk Koetter - Photo courtesy of the Buccaneers
SR’s Fab 5 is a collection of inside scoop, analysis and insight from yours truly, PewterReport.com publisher and Bucs beat writer Scott Reynolds. Here are a few things that caught my attention this week at One Buc Place and around the NFL.
FAB 1. BUCS SHOULD ATTEMPT TO TRADE BACK IN ROUND 1
Let’s get right to the point and not bury the lead.
This is the year the Bucs should trade back in the first round, and I don’t mean a couple spots as general manager Jason Licht did last year when he swapped with Chicago, moving from ninth to 11th overall, and picked up a fourth-rounder he used to package with the team’s third-rounder to move up into the second round to draft kicker Roberto Aguayo.
Tampa Bay should trade down in the first round – and possibly in the second round – because of the value of this deep draft and the amount of talent that will be available in the third and fourth rounds this year. Licht has shown he can nail a mid-round draft pick, evidenced by the selection of fourth-round middle linebacker Kwon Alexander in 2015. And with the third- and fourth round full of talented players that could definitely earn a roster spot and perhaps playing time, this is the year the Bucs need to turn seven draft picks into nine.
Not only would drafting eight or nine players increase the chance that Tampa Bay would hit a few home runs with more swings, this is the year that Licht needs to lay the final pieces of the Bucs’ foundation for perennial playoff success as the Bucs did in drafts from 1995-98 with the selections of Hall of Fame defensive tackle Warren Sapp (1995) and linebacker Derrick Brooks (1995), fullback Mike Alstott (1996), cornerback Donnie Abraham (1996), running back Warrick Dunn (1997), cornerback Ronde Barber (1997) and cornerback Brian Kelly (1998).
Bucs GM Jason Licht, CB Vernon Hargreaves & HC Dirk Koetter – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
This is Licht’s fourth season as the team’s G.M., and he has drafted what some believe are franchise cornerstones in wide receiver Mike Evans (2014), lineman Kevin Pamphile (2014), quarterback Jameis Winston (2015), tackle Donovan Smith (2015), guard Ali Marpet (2015), Alexander (2015), cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (2016) and defensive end Noah Spence (2016). One more quality draft with three or four starters and Tampa Bay should be built for the long haul.
The East-West Shrine Game, the Senior Bowl and the NFL Scouting Combine have all come and gone, and the pro days of NFL draft prospects are winding down. It’s time for not only NFL teams like Tampa Bay to put the finishing touches on their draft boards and dive into doing their internal mock drafts, it’s also time for PewterReport.com to do some deep draft analysis of our own.
After looking at two scenarios that could happen, my conclusion would be for Tampa Bay to trade down – if possible – and acquire an extra mid-round pick or two in the process. To come up with these scenarios, I enlisted the help of Pewter Reporter Trevor Sikkema, who helped me compile a list of the players that will almost certainly be off the board when Tampa Bay picks with the 19th overall selection. Here’s what we came up with.
The following 12 players are widely regarded as top-12 picks and will surely be gone by No. 19. They are in no particular order.
Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett
Standford DL Solomon Thomas
Alabama DT Jonathan Allen
LSU RB Leonard Fournette
Florida State RB Dalvin Cook
LSU S Jamal Adams
Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore
Ohio State S Malik Hooker
Alabama LB Reuben Foster
Clemson WR Mike Williams
Alabama TE O.J. Howard
North Carolina QB Mitchell Trubisky
What this group consists of is three defensive linemen, two running backs, two safeties, the top cornerback, the top wide receiver, the top linebacker, the top tight end and the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft – whoever that may be. If you think it’s Deshaun Watson or DeShon Kizer instead of Trubisky that’s fine. There will be a quarterback taken by No. 12 when Cleveland’s second first-round pick comes up – and certainly one taken by the time Arizona is on the clock at No. 13 if the Browns pass on a QB with either of their first-round picks. The Cardinals are looking for a long-term successor to Carson Palmer.
Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey – Photo by: Getty Images
There will also be an offensive tackle somewhere in the top 15, especially this year when the talent is thin at the position. Whether that is Utah’s Garett Bolles, Alabama’s Cam Robinson or Wisconsin’s Ryan Ramcyzk will be determined on draft day. Sikkema and I also believe there will be another edge rusher chosen within the top 15 picks – likely Tennessee defensive end Derek Barnett. Temple linebacker Hassan Reddick and Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey will also be drafted before the Bucs are on the clock, too.
So that’s 16 players that we can say with a degree of confidence that won’t be available to Tampa Bay at No. 19.
Due to lack of talent and depth at both the quarterback and offensive tackle positions – positions the Bucs are unlikely to draft – there could be another QB or tackle taken within the top 15 in addition to Trubisky and Bolles. That scenario only helps the Bucs because it drives down more talent at the positions Tampa Bay will actually consider drafting in the first round, which PewterReport.com believes to be wide receiver, tight end, defensive end or safety – with running back or cornerback being wild cards.
So which potential Bucs targets are left in this scenario? Here’s a look:
Western Michigan WR Corey Davis
Washington WR John Ross
Miami TE David Njoku
Washington S Budda Baker
Kansas State DE Jordan Willis
USC CB Adoreé Jackson
UConn S Obi Melifonwu
Missouri DE Charles Harris
That’s eight players that could interest the Bucs, and out of those eight, two or three could be off the board between picks 16-18 when Baltimore, Washington and Tennessee select.
The Ravens have similar needs to the Bucs, and a wide receiver, defensive end, safety or running back could be selected at 16, taking away a potential Tampa Bay target. Most mock drafts have the Redskins selecting an offensive lineman or a linebacker, and that helps the Bucs. But the Titans, who pick at No. 18, will almost assuredly draft a receiver or tight end for quarterback Marcus Mariota, and that takes away another potential target for the Bucs.
Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Trevor Sikkema/PR
Still, in this scenario, if Davis or Ross goes to the Ravens and the Titans, the Bucs will have plenty of options to choose from.
With Houston, which picks 25th and Kansas City, which has the 27th overall selection, expected to draft a quarterback in the first round, moving up to 19 makes sense to ensure either team gets its guy. If Licht is looking to trade down, the Texans and the Chiefs make the most sense.
Using the standard NFL draft trade chart, the 19th overall pick is worth 875 points. Trading down seven spots to Houston at No. 25, which is valued at 720 points, means the Bucs are entitled to at least 150 points worth of value, which would mean getting the Texans’ third-round pick (No. 89 overall worth 145), and a seventh-round pick. Or if there was a bidding war for Licht’s No. 19 position, he could ask for more.
The Bucs would still have two or three draft targets available as the Texans would be drafting a QB at No. 19, and the Broncos and New York Giants are expected to draft offensive linemen with the next two picks. An extra third-round pick could mean getting to draft a starting-caliber running back like USF’s Marlon Mack or Toledo’s Kareem Hunt and getting a starting-caliber wide receiver like Texas A&M’s Josh Reynolds or Louisiana Tech’s Carlos Henderson in the same round. Or for those wanting an offensive lineman, the Bucs could snag Bucknell tackle Julie’n Davenport or Utah guard Isaac Asiata and a skill position player in Round 3.
If the Chiefs wanted to trade up they would owe the Bucs 195 points, which would be Kansas City’s third-round pick (136 points), fourth-round pick (40 points) and fifth-rounder (19.4 points). That’s the haul Tampa Bay would be entitled to in trading down to No. 27. That would give the Bucs a total of 10 draft picks initially, and certainly plenty of ammunition for Licht to move up in any round to get a targeted player.
USC CB Adoreé Jackson – Photo by: Getty Images
Even if a scenario developed where all of the offensive weapons that might interest the Bucs – Cook, Howard, McCaffrey, Davis, Ross and Njoku – were off the board, that might prompt the team to trade down if Tampa Bay has defensive players like Jackson, Baker, Melifonwu, Harris and Willis with borderline second-round grades. In other words, if a remaining target isn’t worthy of using the 19th overall selection on then Licht might be wise to seek out a trade for a mid-round draft pick, especially this year in such a deep draft.
With Licht’s ability to find starting-caliber talent outside of the first two rounds, it would be worthwhile to pick up an extra pick or two this year. Of course it all depends on which players are on the board when pick No. 19 is up and if Licht can find any willing trading partners.
Scott Reynolds is in his 23rd year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds enjoys giving back to the community as the defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: [email protected]
Thanks Scott. Wow a lot of players to think about! I have zero glue what we are going to do with Spot 19 pick. I’ll just sit back and support my team; i have much confidence in GM and Coach. Go Bucs!
Thank you, Horse.
A horse with zero glue?
Was that a typo or a plea to not take you down to the glue factory when you’re a little older?
Good One. This is a tough draft to pick who we take since we are at Spot 19. Like Scott said, it all depends if one of their top players are there. I will say this though; it will be exciting to watch the draft on the first and 2nd day. Go Bucs!
I feel like there’s natural opportunity but also opportunity created to get studs due to them not having prototypical draft characteristics like Corey Davis only having tape, Dalvin Cook and Teez having a slower than expected 40 time. Would be nice to nab all 3.
I do like the idea of trading down if a player the Bucs are targeting isn’t there. The Bucs will be motivated. But, it takes two to tango. So, we’ll see.
Mr. Licht has proven he can work a draft. It will be fun to watch him work and make the Bucs better. I think this draft will have some surprises in it.
I remember when the Dolphins picked Ted Ginn Jr. I remember the tv camera was at a Dolphin’s draft party and they were ready for Brady Quinn. The looks on their faces when that didn’t happen was priceless!
It does take two to tango, but if THE player Jason Licht wants (whoever that is) is there at 19 he will pull the trigger. The key is to find a stud in the first round and Licht wouldn’t trade down just to do so, passing up a stud in the process. It should be a fun draft.
If the first round shakes out like that, I would take Corey Davis and not look back. The WR position is far from a need, but Davis has a ton of production and upside. If he were gone, I’d be ok with trading down a few spots and trying to nab Obi or Harris.
But it always takes two to tango. If there is no one on the board the Bucs like, what is to say the Chiefs or Texans have a guy they like so bad they have to move in front of the Broncos? If they’re targeting QB, they don’t have to be worried about the Broncos taking one after Tampa. Maybe an offensive lineman (need for Broncos), but both teams seem pretty set and it’s hard to find a lineman worth trading up for.
I’m really beginning to think that all 3 RBs – Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey – and all 3 WRs – Mike Williams, Corey Davis and John Ross – will be off the board by No. 19, in addition to TE O.J. Howard. But yes, if Davis is there, the Bucs should grab him.
Thanks for the reply Scott. Great work, as always!
You say that, and a lot of other folks say that… but most of the talk this draft is defense, with the first three rounds likely to be very defensive heavy in the picks.
I think that nobody knows anything on who will be drafted where. A very talent rich draft at most every position except quarterback and left tackle is likely to result in a lot of surprises come the end of Day 1. In fact most drafts feature a lot of surprises on Day 1, but this one is apt to have even more surprises than usual.
This is the Forest Gump draft, I’m thinking. You never know til you unwrap it.
I was in favor of trading back into the late first or early second before reading todays article. Now I’m fully behind the move, seeing as how the Texans and or Chiefs possibly might be anxious to grab a QB. Romo retiring left the Texans in a bind, so I expect them to make a move. The value of player at 19 could be great, or it could be just okay. Such a weird spot to draft. If we stay put, I’m all for BPA no matter what need to might not fill.
While there is a chance that Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Williams, Davis, and Ross are all gone in the Top 18. I think there is a much better chance at least one of those guys falls to us. The last time that 6 WRs/RBs were taken in the Top 18 was 2005 (all in the Top 10 actually) and all of those guys were pretty much busts. If you add O.J. Howard to the mix, the last time that 7 skill position players (RB/WR/TE) went in the Top 18 was in 2000. It’s very rare. Admittedly, although I would be thrilled to get any of the 7 players mentioned, they all have pretty legitimate questions that could cause them to fall besides Williams, Howard, and Fournette. One of them will be there, and that should be our pick. Personally hoping for McCaffrey or Davis.
Good research! That would be an unprecedented number of skill position guys going at the top. In a draft so loaded with defensive talent, it’s hard to see all of them going so early. Someone will fall.
That too. I think it’s a damn near certainty that you will have 4 DBs, 3 DLs, 1 QB, 1 LB, 1 OL in the Top 18. So that’s 10…but that’s the bare minimum. Lets say that Garrett, Thomas, and Allen are locks along the D-Line. Barnett is still very likely to go in the Top 18. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Charlton go in front of us. At DB, Hooker, Adams, and Lattimore are locks…and it’s also extremely likely that another corner goes in that range – whether it be White, Humphrey, Conley, or even Melifonwu to sneak up there like Joseph and Neal did last year – or more than one of those guys. At LB, Foster is a lock and Reddick is starting to look like a good chance to go ahead of us. At OL, either Robinson, Bolles, Ramzcyk, or Lamp will go Top 18 but it’s definitely possible that more than one could go there. At QB, history tells us there’s a good chance multiple QBs go in the Top 18. So, where I see why people think ALL 7 of the top skill guys could be off the board, all other things considered, it seems less likely that will be the case.
I love the research there sir, but i Guess my rebuttal to that would be the fact that most offensive line classes are taken early and often. This year, that just probably won’t be the case with maybe 2 or 3 in the entire first round. I hope you’re right and there is a very good possibility when that run on QB’s start , teams will start overreacting.
The value of offensive line has gone up so much over the last decade that those guys end up getting pushed up the board. Look at 2015 for instance. Brandon Scherff (5th), Ereck Flowers (9th), Andrus Peat (13th), and Cameron Erving (19th)…those guys weren’t top 20 picks. Scherff was clean enough to get drafted in the Top 20 but Flowers and Peat are comparable to the tackles in this class. Lamp is a way better interior OL prospect than Erving was. Only once in the last 10 drafts has there been less than 2 offensive lineman taken in the Top 18 (several have been taken at 19 ironically but I stopped at 18). I think there’s a very good chance that one of the tackles and Lamp will get taken ahead of us, and a decent chance that two tackles go ahead of us.
I said early on that this looks like a draft that I would want to trade down if the opportunity arose. If Tampa can do so, the talent at the end of the 1st round or even into the top of the 2nd round can be close to what we could have picked at #19. So, I’m on board to a trade down. What I definitely do NOT want to see, is a trade up in the 1st round.
Also, I do think Hill from UoM would be a good pickup at the safety position in the 4th round. Not sure he’ll go before then, possibly at the end of the 3rd. Hill was under appreciated for the work that he did in the UoM secondary and will be a solid performer in the NFL IMO.
Finally, I’m all for upgrading the speed on both sides of the ball, but the reference to Dexter BUST Jackson is a warning for all Bucs fans. I’d rather have production than speed. I’d rather have both really, but I really don’t want another player like Jackson or Kenny Bell that is fast, but doesn’t have what it takes on the field to be a consistent performer.
Great Fab5 this week Scott. Enjoyable read.
Thank you, nitey.
Bravo! This is the kind of information and analysis I want from Pewter Report!! Good stuff, Scott and staff! … :->)
I will read later (and comment if I feel so inclined).
Thank you in advance, XpfcWintergreen. I appreciate it.
Delicious Fab 5 Scott, great article before the draft.
I agree with Brandonges above, if Davis is there I would jump on him and not look back. My personal belief is that WR & S are our thinnest positions.
If your assumptions are true I think the BUCS should trade back even out of the first round. There is so much quality in rounds 2-4 that they can get very similar players and more quantity.
I have full faith in Licht in playing his cards right in the draft, and regardless how it plays out believe the BUCS will be the better for it.
Lastly, another K-State plug again🙄
Thank you, MudManVA. Not plugging K-State unnecessarily. The Bucs really like Jordan Willis. If they didn’t I wouldn’t be pushing him. I’m interested in predicting who the Bucs like and will draft than pushing my own draft agenda.
I know Scott but couldn’t resist poking some fun like Mark “I’m going to fight ya” Cook would
I’ve noticed that during the podcasts there’s always tie ins between whats being talked about and what’s to come in an expanded form in the weeks Fab 5. I’ve really enjoyed that. Keep doing what you guys are doing. The content, as well as the functionality, of this site has been on an upward swing the past little while and I find myself starting to come back more often than I have in the past few years, so thank you for fixing some of the issues. Here’s hoping with the change that we finally won’t have a site crash on draft weekend.
Thank you, germcanbuc. Glad to have you around more often. And yes, I like teasing the SR’s Fab 5 a bit in the Pewter Nation Podcasts. It’s fun. We have a good time with it.
I appreciate the kind words on the content and the functionality of the site. As for draft day crashes, we are anticipating that they’ll be a thing of the past. PewterReport.com had crazy traffic during free agency – higher than last year’s draft traffic – and the site held up very well despite a tsunami of visitors. Didn’t go down at all. We’re hoping and anticipating that will be the case on draft week, too.
Think any fan will agree with point 1. Thanks for laying out some actual options for trading down. Houston seems like a realistic choice. I would love for that to happen and to grab
1) Jordan Willis
2) Alvin Kamara
3) Chris Godwin
3) Eddie Jackson
4) Cam Sutton
5) Jeremy Sprinkle.
Scott, what are your feelings on Willis. Know you mentioned you liked him, but we’rent really crazy about him on your podcast. Can you go into detail? Know you are a K State guy. (Homer…haha jk). Thanks!
I like Jordan Willis a lot. There was some stiffness to his game at K-State and too many times he was wheeled around the QB by the right tackle. Now, he addressed that in my SR’s Fab 5 where he was one of the features a couple of weeks ago. He’s working on his flexibility and said that Paul Spicer gave him some tips about turning his hips quicker and getting a better angle to the QB. I think he needs some NFL coaching and he’ll blossom. Will that be as an 8-10-sack guy or a 10-14-sack guy in the NFL? I’m not sure.
I’m not sure how high his ceiling is. While he is fast and athletic, it doesn’t ooze out of him the way it did with Simeon Rice, who was much more twitchy and smooth at the same time, if that makes sense.
Nice Fab 5 as always, thanks and a hat tip! That kid Adoreé Jackson really impresses me with his speed and the way he just does not give up on plays. CB is ALWAYS a need especially in today’s NFL and certainly in the NFC South.
Trading down and picking up a player like Jackson would be fine by me but you never know who might fall to the Bucs at 19.
LOVE the draft and PR analysis. Trevor Sikkema is doing a great job, nice addition. You could lay off Uncle Stan in the podcasts though…… LOL
Thank you, Garv! Lol! We love Uncle Stan, and for the record, it’s Mark who is always referencing Uncle Stan – not me (although I finally did it this week). I’ll pass along the kudos to Trevor, and I too would love to see Adoree` Jackson in Tampa Bay. He could be Devin Hester – but actually play and excel at a position.
If the Bucs were sitting at 19 and all of the afore mentioned targets have been taken and there is no worthy offer to trade back, I’m just curious if the Bucs would consider Haason Reddick? Looking over the roster, the weak link in the chain appears to be the hole that Daryl Smith leaves? The Bucs’ LB depth is already a concern and I’m sure they have all the confidence in the world in Devante Bond, but the SAM seems to be the biggest iffy spot and this kid appears to earned consideration?
Haason Reddick is a very fine player. I think he’ll be gone by 19, but if he isn’t, I’m not sure the Bucs would bite. It’s hard to spend a first-rounder on a Sam LB who will only be on the field for 35-40 percent of the snaps as Tampa Bay will be in nickel for the vast majority of the time.
Scott have you done any research on Richmond S D Jones. On his pro day his stats were very close to what top Safety’S at combine were. He broke his arm in September of 2016 season but in 2015 he was very impressive with 9 INT. He could be a 5-7 Rd pick.
The Bucs don’t have a “glaring need” at safety.
What they have is a “glaring need’ of a consistent pass rush so as not to leave their safeties exposed in pass coverage for over 5 seconds in one on one coverage.
Hi, I’m Macabee and we open up in the forest. All of a sudden racoon comes up and asks “what are you reading”? Told’em “SR Fab 5”. Squirrel comes up and said “tell me some more about that”! Told the squirrel “easy to read and very informative”. Turkey comes in and asks “does it come out every day”? Told’em “nope, just Fridays”. Porcupine comes in and asks “is it better than JoeBucsFan”? Told’em “you betcha”! Wolf comes in and asks “how’d you learn to talk to animals”? Told’em “Books”! Wolf said “Touche” and we had a good laugh about that!
OK fellas , it should be obvious that this draft has pretty much run me crazy. Lol. I’m with Horse. I’m also going to just sit back and let Koetter and Licht do their thing. Go Bucs!
Hope you guys are having some fun too! And great Fab 5 Scott!
Good one macabee!
Down votes by accident while scrolling. Sorry.
Thank you, macabee!
Bury the _lede_.
Trading down when there’s no obvious slam dunk matching of need to BAP makes obvious sense in a draft that is deep in talent at many positions.
The problem is every other GM knows that too. None of the guys with picks higher than 20 expect to end up with one of the premium talents, they all know talent is deep, and if everybody is selling then nobody is buying. The free market rules.
So, great if Jason can find a valuable trade … but he also has a draft board that is not heavily weighted towards those top 16 guys anyway. He needs to take BAP unless someone is begging him to give us an extra Day two pick.
There won’t be any of the proverbial “rafts of draft picks” available in trade for the no. 19 pick. That really only works if you hold a top five pick.
Scott, one of your better Fab 5’s.
I think trading back makes sense if all of their target prospects are gone.
Every one knows I’m a huge Wolverine fan. If Jabril Peppers is there at 19 would you pull the trigger on him? As big of UM fan as I am I’m just not sure.
It’s good to see all those UM guys listed, and you could very well be right in assuming Wormley will be the best of them. We shall see. I think Taco Charleton will be a bust, just my opinion.
I have started to warm up to Adam Shaheen. Third round maybe? It’s possible him and Brate could be a terrible twosome for years to come.
Here’s a question for you, if we traded out of the first round entirely could the BUCS snag a teams 2nd and 3rd round picks? I like the sound of that trade.
Also, what is your take on Dede Westbrook? Possible 2nd rounder?
Keep on churning out these great Friday editions of Fab 5.
We all look forward to them.
Thank you, chetthevette. I too think Chris Wormley will be better than Taco Charlton in the pros. I’m not sold on Charlton – or Jabrill Peppers for that matter.
I do like Dede Westbrook the player. I’m not sure about him as a person as he has some baggage the Bucs would have to sift through.
i had to stop reading for a few minutes after being reminded that licht scored an extra mid round pick trading down, and than packaged that 4th plus a 3rd for a kicker. It’s not that i didn’t recall how the aguayo pick went down, it’s just that i’ve spent almost a year trying to forget that in addition to drafting a kicker way too high, we passed on 2 potentially solid offensive or defensive contributors to do so.
I’m in general agreement that I’d like to see Licht have a little more confidence in his drafting ability, and trade down. But, one can always trade the second rounder down.
– Dline doesn’t seem like a position to draft. But, there’s at least potentially upgrade and depth needs at De, and the Dt’s are getting up there in age. I could see two Dt’s in this draft class alone! I’m hoping for Larry Ogunjobi. O.k. one can trade down the third rounder!
With Taco Charlton though(who seems to me to have already mastered juimping the snap; with a little more coaching, he can be very dominant), and with all kinds of talent at other positions; yes, in generaly, I’d like the Bucs to just trade down.
I really haven’t systematically checked out all the youtube highlights of this years draft; but, I just found another De. I can’t believe Licht doesn’t know about this guy. I’m not mentioning his name. I’m definitely for trading down. There’s also all kinds of lb’ers.
Moving back works for the mock I put together last night. These players are who I would take with an extra 3rd in there!
1. BAKER, S – I see Earl Thomas.
2. MIXON, RB – Steal
3. KUPP, WR – Super productive slot guy with size and amazing hands.
3. SHAHEEN, TE – Gronkish
4. HENDRICKSON, DE – Relentless
5. C. HANSEN, WR – Plays bigger and faster than he is. Which is 6’2 and a 4.5 – 40
6. J. SMITH, TE – You’ve heard
7. KD CANNON, WR / T. COHEN, RB – SPEED!
I’d love to get C. Elder in there somewhere but… I’m happy as can be with this draft right here.
Shaheen is going to be a bust.
Just a feeling? Everything Ive seen and the measurables suggest he could be a beast..
Don’t be surprised if Adoree` Jackson or Budda Baker is the Bucs’ pick at No. 19. I liked your draft, bEubanks11. Not sure Trey Hendrickson will be there in the fourth round.
You cannot use the standard NFL draft trade chart because it does not include compensatory picks. This site is more accurate
Using your example: The difference swapping first with Hou is 155 not 150 difference. Hou 4th value of 145, leaves a 10 more points the Bucs should get. So to bridge the gap, the Bucs would get Hou 5th (23.40) and the Bucs would give up their 6th (9.4) and 7th (1). That would make deal 3 points positive for the Bucs.
I like my idea better. Trade with Cleveland. Bucs would get Clev 2nd (580), 3rd (265), 5th (33) pick and Bucs give up 1st (875) & 7th (1). Clv total value 878 to Bucs 876.
This makes sense for Clev because they would get Garrett at 1, QB at 12, TE at 19.
The Bucs would then have 4 picks in the top 84.
Your Connected Mr. Cook.
This is why I come here every day.
Sometimes all day.
Mr. Cook? Who’s he?
SR = Scott Reynolds
Good work Scott, and kudos on you for doing the charity events. I am really hoping for Baker, or Adoree Jackson so I was really happy to see them both on the list. Kevin King could be the wildcard there. He is amazing if you are looking for a deep safety with his range and ball skills. I don’t have him as a CB for our scheme at all, though he would be for some other teams such as Seattle. I am also really happy with the offensive weapons who will be there in rounds 2-3 (TE and WR) and the RB’s in rounds 4-5.
Thank you, GoldsonAges. You could get your wish with Budda Baker or Adoree Jackson. I think the wild card could be Jordan Willis over Kevin King, though.
I like Justin Evans over Budda and Melifonwu. I’m surprised he’said not mentioned alot.
When you consider what the Rams, and Eagles gave up last year to move up for Wentz, and Geoff, wouldn’t it be possible for the top 3 Q.B.’s, to be gone before pick 19? Cleveland has to pick one by #12, and the 49ers sure can’t believe Hoyer is the answer. Call me crazy, but if I’m San Fran I’m rolling the dice on Watson,or Kyzer, at #2 assuring I get the Q.B. I want, that’s if Cleveland doesn’t do it first. Both teams need that face of the franchise. Q.B.’s are always over drafted, more so with the rookie wage scale. If there’s a quick run on Q.B.’s someone good may fall in our laps at19. I’ve seen mocks where Watson is picked in the 20 range. I can’t believe someone who helped beat future NFL talent at Bama in the title game falls that far.
Someone is gonna bite on the Jabrill Peppers hype either mid to late 1st round and I think that will create some studs to fall lower. I honestly don’t see him as a #19 pick but someone crazy might feel he’s worth it. I think he’s going to be the catalyst for the chaos this draft, not any of the available QBs. Teams like the Texans and Browns can wait till next year because they have many more team needs than just a QB before they make a consistent run at the postseason. And there really is no stud QB in this draft that is a day 1 starter. They all look like backups except for someone who might be under the radar that nobody would have predicted anyway. But that guy might be in the 3rd to 4th round.
Very interesting Fab 5 and a lot of good comments to follow. I typically am not in favor of trading down since I believe in quality over quantity when selecting players. However, this year it appears that the talent is at a similar level after those first 10 to 15 spots. Thus, a team can in fact slide down a bit and still get an equal value.
The only downside is at the 19 spot we probably are making the pick between 10:30pm and 11:00pm. That’s nearly the middle of the night for us baby boomers who fall asleep on the couch at 9:00pm and wake up at 5:00am. Any later and I might have to down a Mountain Dew like the youngsters. A few years ago I fell asleep as the first round was winding down only to wake up to learn we had traded back into the first round to draft Doug Martin.
I sure hope the QB needy teams panic and cause a run on this years group of quarterbacks that in no way look like franchise types. To me, Watson is the only one who looks like he might be worthy.
If Bucs trade down it mean several players we target are still on the board. That being said IMO Bucs would go Defense hopefully a pass rusher. Bucs need to put a lot of pressure on QB’S in our division! With additional picks we could move around in 2nd round and get 1-2 good players. In the third Rd MAYBE Mack I have seen him play many times and IMO is a can’t miss pick maybe not first yr.
Its nice to see you finally get on-board with the Bucs trading down in the first round. Also thank you for finally fixing your site. I was getting tired of Norton telling me you were not secure.
Are you referring to Bucs 1976?
First off…I HATE this time of year. Not a fan of basketball or baseball, so there’s a big void where I need some NFL action. It’s also that smoke and mirrors time of year where misinformation and trickery is used to confuse the league.
This coming draft is very unpredictable, as showcased in the variation of mock drafts. It will be an exciting draft for us with such a deep pool of players to choose from. As for our choice at #19, if there’s a big target there, we should take him. If not, trading back is an ideal scenario in this draft. It all comes down to value…if there’s a 10 available, we need to take him. If not, trade back and get 2 8s.
I have faith in Licht and his crew as they’ve shown they can work a draft. They can obviously find willing partners to trade and move around in the draft while still finding value (See Alexander in Rd 4.) Another 2-3 hits will put us in immediate playoff contention. This is our year to take a big step forward and take it to the choke artists while they’re still licking their wounds after the Superbowl. Not to mention sticking it to the pussy cats while Superman’s confidence is still shot. And the Aints…not too worried about them. At some point Brees will have to start aging.
In Licht we trust….Go Bucs
I’d love to trade back with Cleveland and acquire both their 2nds. We could possibly get Baker, Willis and your chooce of Evans, a RB or WR.
Test to see if my post are safe?
Buc 1976, he didn’t mean that your post’s were unsafe, he meant that Norton Anti-virus was telling him that Pewterreport.com was an unsafe website according to his anti-virus software. Im assuming that your name is Norton, right? Hope that clears up your confusion. Your posts are not unsafe.
Ok I have been having trouble with Lookout. I appreciate your time and help. Bucs 1976
round 1 – trade back with chiefs, get the 27th overall pick and 91st overall pick (3rd round) and select RB Joe Mixon
round 2 – Justin Evans texas A&m safety
round 3 – Ardarius Stewart WR Alabama
round 3 (from chiefs) – Derek Rivers DE youngstown state
round 4 – Cooper Kupp WR eastern Washington
round 5 – damontae kazee DB san diego st
let me know what you think ?!?!?
I like justin evans in the 2nd lines up with mine lol. Check out Jamaal Williams RB out of BYU. Solid RB to be had on Day 3.
As much as I think Mixon is talented, IMO, his history goes beyond whatever clouds were around Winston, and beyond the clear cloud that was around ASJ with his DUI. It would be pretty hypocritical for the Glazers to sign-off on Mixon, again IMO, so I would be skeptical of him landing in Tampa for that reason.
1. Corey Davis, Western Michigan
2. Justin Evans, Texas A&M
3. Corn Elder, Miami
4. Jamaal Williams, BYU
5. Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Tennessee
6. Gerald Everett, South Alabama
7. Jarod Evans, Virginia Tech
What you think?
i like these pics too just think we def need to get a pass rusher at some point. and tbh if both mixon and davis were available at 19 i say take mixon. the dude is a L.Bell clone and i think hes going to be a star from day 1
When it comes to the annual lottery (I mean draft), I say this every year on PR, the best strategy is to accept the statistical evidence (yes even in the current world of alternative facts). That evidence is very clear – with every round (and indeed the trend is clear within rounds even if the small sample sizes can offer up an anomaly or two), the probability of selecting a medium-term (let alone a long-term) starter in the NFL goes down with every pick.
The best chance a team has to find a starter is to pick #1, the next best chance is to pick #2, and so on….and the rate of decline accelerates through the draft. That doesn’t mean a starter can’t be found in the 7th round, it just means that statistically doing that is quite unlikely.
A strategy based on trading away a 1st round ticket (I mean pick), for say 2 third round tickets is statistically a losing strategy (that’s like giving up maybe a 10% chance, for two perhaps 1% chances). Now, if one believes that Jason Licht is a better GM than all GMs in the history of the NFL, perhaps he is not subject to the statistical evidence. However, pointing to Lovie Smith’s pick of Kwon Alexander as evidence that Licht has a strong history of outperforming the statistical evidence, is not very persuasive. I would suspect his attempts at the lottery will not be statically different from the other 31 GMs.
I will stick again this year to the philosophy that says: pick as high as you can pick, as often as you can do that and you will have the best statistical chance of finding the most starters you can….of course, that still in all likelihood won’t be very many starters….certainly not 4 or 5 starter additions for the medium term (that would truly be an anomaly).
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