Welcome to a brand new weekly column from yours truly that hooks you into a different Tampa Bay Buccaneers topic each Thursday, as well as some of my thoughts on the Bucs and the NFL at the end in a section called Cannon Blast.

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After the Buccaneers’ 2019 season ended following a 28-22 loss to the Falcons, had someone asked me what the percentage that quarterback Jameis Winston returns to Tampa Bay in 2020 I would have said probably 90 percent that he would be back.

Now, one month later, I would say it is 50-50 at best Winston returns.

That’s a sentiment, PewterReport.com’s Scott Reynolds also shares in his latest SR’s Fab 5 column.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Getty Images

Tampa Bay is still trying to determine if it can win with Winston. His 5,109 passing yards speaks for itself, but so does his 30 interceptions. The team is going to explore all options in potential free agents to the QBs in the 2020 NFL Draft before making a decision. There has been a lot of talk about Chargers QB Phillip Rivers as an option, and even rumblings of Tom Brady – should he and New England decide to part ways after 20 years.

Ryan Tannehill, who led the Titans to the AFC Championship game, is also scheduled to be a free agent along with New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater, Dallas’ Dak Prescott, Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota. Andy Dalton’s days in Cincinnati appear to be numbered. Those are the top names. Of course most of those listed likely will re-sign with their current teams – except for Dalton.

So what are the Bucs’ options?

Realistically Rivers, and Bridgewater are the two most likely to be considered by the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay, primarily head coach Bruce Arians and general manager Jason Licht, will determine if they feel either is an upgrade over Winston and which one best fits Arians’ offense.

The Buccaneers likely have noticed the success of some of the quarterbacks in the playoffs, most notably Tannehill and the 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo, who were both essentially game managers. Strong running games and strong defenses helped both the Titans and 49ers succeed, and both quarterbacks weren’t asked to do too much. There is some discussion that Arians and Licht might want to go that route in 2020, which seems really odd considering the “no risk it, no biscuit” mentality that both have professed numerous times.

If that is in fact the case, then Tampa Bay is playing with fire.

First, there is no Derrick Henry or Raheem Mostert on the Bucs’ roster. There is no Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman, or probably not even a Dion Lewis. Instead, the Bucs enter the offseason with Ronald Jones II, Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale. And Barber isn’t even under contract for 2020.

Second, is anyone confusing Tampa Bay’s offensive line with that of Tennessee’s or San Francisco’s? Both of those offensive lines were more physical and more dominant that what we saw with Tampa Bay in 2019. So if they want to emulate either of those two teams now not only do you need a game-manager quarterback, they also need an upgrade at the running back position and also they would need a better offensive line.

John Spytek and Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But the biggest gamble of all would be to think the Buccaneers defense can carry this team into the playoffs and possibly to a Super Bowl. We all loved what the defense was able to do late in the season after a disastrous start to 2019.

Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles and his staff worked miracles to take the league’s worst defense early in the year and turn it into a Top 10 defense after Week 10. But even after such a dramatic turnaround the Bucs still finished 30th in the NFL in pass defense giving up an average of 270.1 yards per game.

Yes, they were first in the NFL is rushing defense, but opposing teams only attempted to run an average of 22 times a game, which was the fourth fewest in the league. So is that stat-skewed by the fact teams didn’t attempt to run because they knew how easy it was to pass on the Bucs secondary?

We saw this mid-season defensive turnaround movie once before with a Bucs defense back in 2016 when Tampa Bay went on a five-game winning streak beating the Bears, Chiefs, Seahawks, Chargers and the Saints. The Bucs finished the season 9-7 and everyone was pumped up for what was going to be a return to the playoffs in 2017. But Mike Smith’s defense fell back down to Earth, Tampa Bay ended up 5-11 and the rest is history. Forgettable history, unfortunately.

Bucs DC Mike Smith – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I think most would agree this 2019 Bucs defense is a more talented unit than the one in 2016. But can Licht keep this unit intact? Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Carl Nassib are all slated to be free agents. Those were four huge contributors to the success of the 2019 defense and recorded most of the team’s 47 sacks.

And even if Tampa Bay can somehow manage to bring everyone back, is Barrett going to have 19.5 sacks again in 2020? Will the 31-year old Pierre-Paul, who played just 10 games after returning from injury, hold up for a full 16 games and hopefully the playoffs? Will a 33-year old Suh still have the same drive and effectiveness he did last season? Who is to say the Buccaneers defense will pick up where it left off in 2019?

This Tampa Bay defense isn’t the San Francisco defense, especially in the secondary – at least not yet. And who is to say the younger players that began to develop later in the year don’t go through some type of sophomore slump? That isn’t unheard of and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean and linebacker Devin White don’t show some signs of that in 2020.

And one more thing when talking about game-managing quarterbacks. While Kirk Cousins and Tannehill got their teams to the playoffs, both were soundly beaten in their losses.

Are Vikings fans excited to see Cousins back under center in 2020? What would lead anyone to believe that the Vikings can dethrone the Packers or the 49ers next year to get to the Super Bowl? Is anyone putting money on Tannehill and the Titans to be able to knock off the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes next season?

Sometimes it works. And it may work on Sunday if the 49ers can beat the Chiefs in Miami with a game manager like Garoppolo. But take a look at the last dozen Super Bowl match-ups, below are the quarterbacks who participated.

LAST 12 SUPER BOWL QB MATCH-UPS
2007: Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady
2008: Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger
2009: Drew Brees vs. Peyton Manning
2010: Aaron Rodgers vs. Ben Roethlisberger
2011: Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady
2012: Joe Flacco vs. Colin Kaepernick
2013: Russell Wilson vs. Peyton Manning
2014: Tom Brady vs. Russell Wilson
2015: Peyton Manning vs. Cam Newton
2016: Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan
2017: Tom Brady vs. Nick Foles
2018: Tom Brady vs. Jared Goff

Where are the game managers on that list?

At age 38, Rivers might even be more of a game manager at this stage of his career than a prolific passer despite passing for 4,615 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Chargers see the decline – and his 20 interceptions, which were the third-most in the NFL – and are moving on after 16 years with him under center.

Brady barely topped 4,000 yards passing and threw just 24 touchdowns, which was his lowest TD output in 11 years. At age 42, Brady too might more of a game manger than he is a prolific passer. And how many years does he have left – two? – while Winston likely has a decade or more playing time ahead of him.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I am not saying the Buccaneers would be wrong if they decide to walk away from Winston. I get it. He has over 100 turnovers in his five years in Tampa Bay. But I am also not saying the Bucs would be right in doing so, either.

No one will know for sure until a year from now – whatever the decision is from Arians and Licht.

But to give up on the league’s leading passer with a passion for the game and great leadership ability like Winston has because of one flaw – and his turnovers are a major flaw – is a risky move considering the first-round draft pick and the tens of millions invested in Winston thus far.

Quitting on Winston now in hopes that the Bucs can find not only a game manager QB, but also build an improved running game that would require an upgrade to the offensive line to support such a game manager, and pinning their hopes that Tampa Bay’s defense can duplicate the type of performance it had over last six games of 2019 is dangerous.

The Bucs are playing with fire.

If Tampa Bay bails on Winston for a game manager QB, and that move backfires, people will get fired.

CANNON BLAST

Cook’s musings and ramblings about the Buccaneers and the NFL. Good stuff. Check it out.

• While I’m sorry I missed out on the wonderful (i.e. frigid) weather in Mobile, Ala. at the Senior Bowl last week (sarcasm), I took one for the team and spent a few days in Orlando, Fla. covering the Pro Bowl. I took my son, Douglas, who is 19, and made him carry my bags and recorder and round up players to interview. He did a great job, and with his help we were able to interview a number of Pro Bowl players, who we asked what the Bucs should do with Jameis Winston in 2020. The majority of them said the same thing – keep him another year and see what Winston can do in a second season under Bruce Arians.

Colts LB Darius Leonard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

One funny thing did happen when I asked Colts star linebacker Darius Leonard about Winston. Remember, Leonard had had two interceptions in Tampa Bay’s 38-35 come-from-behind win over Indianapolis, including a pick-six. Leonard ended the conversation with, “He is a great quarterback and has been nothing but great since coming into the league. You all (the media) need to give him his respect.”

I laughed after I turned off my recorder. Obviously Leonard didn’t know me at all, but for him to tell me – of all people – I need to “give him his respect” was pretty funny and ironic. Even my son said Leonard obviously had never read anything I had written. I have criticized Winston over the course of the last five seasons, and I also think I have been quite fair – despite those who think I am biased about Winston because I’m an FSU fan. Regardless, I have always given Winston his respect.

• I think I would pay money to see a UFC-style fight between Bucs defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and and Vita Vea – like literally pay $100 to sit ringside and watch those two grapple. Imagine the old grizzled veteran versus the young Polynesian sensation in the octagon. The problem is who to bet on.

We know Suh has a nasty streak. Ask former Packers and Bucs offensive lineman Evan Dietrich-Smith, who had to get tattoos on his arms to cover up Suh’s cleat marks. Little known fact: Suh’s stomp of Dietrich-Smith forced him to drop the Dietrich from his name.

You could also ask former Bucs quarterback Josh McCown who took a forearm to the face when the Bucs faced the Lions on the road back in 2014. How that wasn’t a five-year suspension is still a mystery. McCown was hit so hard in the head that his brother Luke suffered a concussion just from watching it on television.

Former Lions DT Ndamukong Suh – Photo by: Getty Images

But don’t sleep on the young Vea, who had to be tough growing up, especially with a given name on his birth certificate of Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea. You know the kids in school chuckled every first day of the year when the teacher called out the class roster.

And when he was drafted didn’t Bucs general manager Jason Licht tell a story about Vea picking up an entire village, or a house, or a rock that had a sword stuck through it after Vea was drafted? I don’t know, it was something like that. But that was an impressive story.

I think I would pick Suh to win in a close decision. Not because I think he is a better fighter than Vea. I’m just a lot more scared of Suh. In my one season of covering him I don’t think I ever once witnessed him smiling in the locker room. All I ever got was the Suh scowl.

Suh always looked at me like I had put an open can of sardines in the dash of his Tesla, and spray-painted, “Cornhuskers drink White Claws” on the side of his car. And just thinking about that forearm hit to McCown’s noggin still makes my ears ring a little.

So who would you take, Bucs fans, in this brawl? And what other octagon battles would you pay to see between Tampa Bay players?

• OMG. This. Is. Brilliant. From. Frank. Caliendo.

Madden and Summerall call the @PatrickMahomes run. #SuperBowlLIV pic.twitter.com/dG4erO5hhE

— Frank Caliendo (@FrankCaliendo) January 30, 2020

• Make sure to check out PewterReport.com’s YouTube Channel and subscribe. You can view the last two years of my What’s Cooking? show – sponsored by Ford’s Garage – plus other videos we have recorded and posted including replays of our live draft coverage over the previous two seasons. We plan on expanding and creating some new content in 2020. Give us some ideas of what you would like to watch.

Also, follow PewterReport.com on all of our other social media platforms this offseason as we cover the NFL Scouting Combine next month and the NFL Owners Meeting in March, plus any breaking Bucs news or press conferences.

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Aside from the team itself, PewterReport.com easily has the largest following and most comprehensive social media platforms of all the media outlets covering the Buccaneers.

• If the Bucs open the 2020 season on Monday Night Football in Las Vegas, as has been rumored, I’m there. That’s a road trip I’m not going to miss. In fact, I’m petitioning for the entire Pewter Report staff hitting Vegas like the “Wolfpack” from the movie The Hangover to cover that game and see the new stadium in Las Vegas.

Obviously, I would be Phil, Bradley Cooper’s character, but since Scott Reynolds is the boss I’ll take one for the team and go with the character Alan, played by Zach Galifianakis, instead. Clearly by this side-by-side picture of Galifianakis and myself it would be a big stretch for me, but I am up for the challenge.

But heck, I’m going to Vegas whenever the Bucs play the Raiders in 2020 – whether it’s the season opener or not. That is going to be the road game to attend next year – right, Bucs fans?

Plus, I will get to hang out with my BFF Nick Carter of the Backstreet Boys, who called me this week to tell me he thinks it will be Phillip Rivers to the Bucs.

Watch out, Sin City. The Pewter Wolfpack is coming to town.