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How The Bucs Will Attack Free Agency

The outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) has forced the shutdown of the team’s AdventHealth Training Center headquarters, but general manager Jason Licht, director of football administration Mike Greenberg, the team’s capologist, director of player personnel John Spytek and head coach Bruce Arians are expected to gather there periodically over the next week to attack free agency via phone and e-mail with agents of players the team is targeting, beginning on March 16 when the league’s official tampering window begins.

The team’s assistant coaches and scouts will be working from home, watching film and being available for quick conference calls as needed during free agency. There are no plans to send scouts or coaches on the road to recruit free agents, nor is there an immediate plan for free agents to visit Tampa Bay on recruiting trips. The Bucs plan to use technology and video conferencing instead.

There is a chance that the start of free agency could be pushed back several days or weeks as ProFootballTalk.com reported.

“Per a league source, the NFL currently is contemplating the possibility of announcing on Sunday a delay in the start of free agency. The league wants to wait until after voting on the CBA closes before making a final decision, in order to prevent further delays to the CBA voting process.”

Bucs director of football administration Mike Greenberg and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“The league is keenly aware of the optics of players agreeing to terms on multi-million-dollar deals while the rest of the nation is adjusting to what will still be as of next week the early days of the coronavirus crisis. Likewise, with teams closing facilities, the traditional practice of new players showing up and signing contracts and conducting press conferences and holding up new jerseys can’t happen next week.”

As PFT points out in the article, the league delayed the start of free agency by four months in 2011 during the lockout, which was the last time the NFL offseason schedule was disrupted by labor talks.

Plan A is Targeting Brady At QB

The outspoken Arians doesn’t mince words.

When asked at the NFL Scouting Combine last month which quarterback he would pick up the phone for in free agency the words “Tom Brady” shot out of Arians’ mouth.

Tampa Bay’s interest in Brady is real and has been for the past several months. The PewterReport.com staff discussed it in a Pewter Nation Podcast on January 9.

Patriots QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Getty Images

I wrote about it – Is Brady An Option For Bucs? – back on January 17 in an SR’s Fab 5 column.

More recently in an SR’s Fab 5 on February 28 from the NFL Scouting Combine I wrote: “Don’t rule out Brady coming to the Buccaneers, either. Arians and Licht are expected to put on a full-court press to persuade Brady to give Tampa Bay a look, especially with an enticing pair of Pro Bowl receivers to throw to in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.”

Tampa Bay Times veteran Bucs beat writer Rick Stroud said as much too on Wednesday in a story called Tom Brady watch: Why the Bucs are going all in.

Bucs fans may have not wanted to believe these reports either out of loyalty or personal preference towards Jameis Winston, or the disbelief that Tampa Bay would or could actually pursue a future Hall of Famer like Brady, but the interest is – and has been – genuine all along.

Stroud and I are both of the same mind, that Arians would love to coach the greatest quarterback of all time and would love to see far fewer interceptions than the 30 Jameis Winston threw last season in his contract year. Brady’s playoff and Super Bowl experience would be invaluable for a young Bucs team that is still learning how to win.

The Glazers, who have witnessed a vast number of empty seats over the last few years – between 15,000 to 25,000 per game – would love the buzz and excitement that Brady would bring to Tampa Bay. Season tickets orders would be buzzing through the Bucs’ ticket office phone lines both day and night.

And those new Bucs jerseys? Brady’s would be the No. 1 seller in Tampa Bay and potentially league-wide.

The Glazers remember the media hoopla from the Keyshawn Johnson trade in 2000 and from the Jon Gruden trade in 2002. Landing an NFL icon like Brady in free agency would make those two landmark deals small by comparison.

The Bucs would instantly be relevant and all over TV with Brady at quarterback. Not just ESPN, NBC, Fox and CBS – but Fox News, CNN and MSNBC, too.

Patriots QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Getty Images

It’s been more than a decade since the Bucs mattered nationally. Coincidentally, it’s been more than a decade since the Bucs have been in the playoffs. Even at age 42, Brady can help in both endeavors.

Because of the interest in Brady and other quarterbacks, Tampa Bay will not be using the franchise tag on quarterback Jameis Winston, as PewterReport.com reported on February 28. If the team does use the franchise tag it will be on outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, whose 19.5 sacks last year set a franchise record and led the league.

Plan B Is Targeting Other QBs

It is my belief that the Bucs would rather sacrifice some play-making ability from the quarterback position for some more conservative play that doesn’t lead to interceptions. This is because the organization got shell-shocked last year with Winston’s league-high 30 interceptions, seven of which were pick-sixes and set an NFL single-season record.

The Bucs are concerned that Winston, who has thrown for a league-high 88 interceptions since entering the NFL as the No. 1 overall pick in 2015, can’t curtail his reckless play enough to get the team into the playoffs.

The last time Tampa Bay made it to the playoffs was after winning the NFC South in 2007 when the team passed for 18 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. Jeff Garcia started 13 games at quarterback and tossed 13 touchdowns and only four interceptions and made the Pro Bowl that year.

Former Bucs QB and Super Bowl Champion Brad Johnson

During the Bucs’ Super Bowl season in 2002, the team passed for 23 touchdowns and threw only 10 interceptions. Brad Johnson started 13 games at quarterback and threw 22 TDs and just six INTs.

The mantra inside the AdventHealth Training Center this offseason following Winston’s pick-six against Atlanta in overtime that dropped the Bucs’ record to 7-9 was, “We can’t win with 30 interceptions.”

That’s why there is some interest in New Orleans quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who is believed to be the Bucs’ Plan B in free agency. Bridgewater was a former first-round pick in Minnesota, who helped lead the Vikings to an 11-5 record in his second year in the league in 2015, while making his first and only Pro Bowl. A devastating non-contact knee injury in the 2016 offseason wiped out his next two seasons and he re-emerged with Todd Bowles and the New York Jets in 2018. After drafting Sam Darnold in the first round, the Jets didn’t have a need for Bridgewater, who was traded to New Orleans.

Bridgewater went 0-1 with the Saints in his first full regular season game back from injury that year, and re-signed with New Orleans for the 2019 season. The Saints are glad he did as Drew Brees missed five games due to a fractured thumb and Bridgewater went 5-0 as the starter.

The 27-year old Bridgewater completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 1,384 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions last year, including a 31-24 win over the Bucs in which he completed 76.5 percent of his passes for 314 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.

QB Teddy Bridgewater – Photo by: Getty Images

The advantage the Bucs sees in him over the 38-year old Philip Rivers is longevity, as Bridgewater is 11 years younger. Bridgewater does a great job of protecting the football with a career 4.6 TD rate and only a 1.4 INT rate.

There is some interest in Rivers, who has spent 16 years with the Chargers organization before parting ways this offseason. Although some point to his 20 interceptions last season, which was the third-highest total in the league, Rivers has only thrown 20 INTs or more three times in his 16-year career with the highest being 21 in 2016 – a year in which he also made the Pro Bowl by throwing 33 touchdowns.

Rivers is just one year removed from a Pro Bowl season in 2018 where he led the Chargers to a 12-4 record by completing 68 percent of his passes for 4,308 yards with 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In fact, Rivers has a career 5.2 TD rate and a 2.6 INT rate compared to Winston, who has a 4.7 TD rate and a 3.5 INT rate in his five-year career. And Rivers has even proved to be more durable, not missing a start in the last 14 years.

While Brady, Bridgewater and Rivers may not have the arm strength that Winston possesses and may not be ideal fits in Arians offense, keep in mind that he is willing to alter his offensive approach to fit what he has to work with. That’s what Arians preaches to his assistant coaches.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers – Photo by: Getty Images

“Don’t tell me what they can’t do, tell me what they can do,” Arians said.

Bucs backup quarterback Ryan Griffin doesn’t have as strong of an arm as Winston and still led the NFL in passing yards during the preseason running Arians offense last August, completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 744 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

Winston Is The Bucs’ Backup Plan

No, if Winston returns to Tampa Bay in 2020 it won’t be as a backup quarterback. He would be the Bucs’ starter, but as of right now, he’s the team’s backup plan at QB. Plan C or D, or however you want to calculate it.

Franchises don’t let great quarterbacks get to free agency, especially ones that the team has a first-round pick invested in. By doing so and letting Winston hit free agency, the Bucs are saying to the league and anyone that will listen that they don’t believe Winston is a great quarterback.

That’s quite telling.

If Bridgewater wants an astronomical contract at $27 million or more per season and the Bucs can re-sign Winston for about $10 million less, Tampa Bay may end up rethinking things and opt to bring back Winston with the hope that the second year of working with quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen, offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and Arians will reduce his number of costly interceptions.

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Getty Images

If Winston comes back to Tampa Bay it will either be at the right price and/or because the QBs that the Bucs perceive to be upgrades have decided to sign elsewhere. There may be some hurt feelings to overcome at first, but the Bucs seem convinced that there is not going to be much of a market for Winston in free agency – at least for a starting job making $20 million or more per season.

The advantages Winston brings to the table are his competitiveness, his age (26), his experience in Arians’ offense, his arm strength and improved downfield accuracy, his rapport with the Bucs’ receiving corps and the respect among his teammates from being named a team captain multiple times over the year.

There are a lot of qualities to love about him, but for a team that couldn’t get out of its own way and beat itself more than getting beaten by its opponents, Winston was the chief culprit when it came to turnovers. While not all of his 30 interceptions were his fault, Arians revealed at the NFL Scouting Combine that 20 of them were his fault, and that’s not including the 15 dropped interceptions he had in 2019 either, which led the league.

Re-signing Barrett Remains The Priority In Free Agency

The Bucs will use the franchise tag if Licht and Greenberg can’t come to terms with Barrett and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, on a long-term deal. The franchise tag for outside linebackers is expected to be $14,666,000, while the franchise tag for defensive ends is $16,338,000.

Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Because the Bucs made the switch to a 3-4 defense last year, the team labels its edge rushers as 3-4 outside linebackers rather than defensive ends, and that aids the team in this area as the difference for Barrett is nearly $2 million less when it comes to the tag designation. Barrett is fiercely loyal to Tampa Bay as Licht took a chance on him last March with a one-year, $4 million prove-it deal. He has said that he doesn’t want to play elsewhere, so expect a long-term deal to eventually emerge somewhere between $15 million to $17 million per season.

The next target for Bucs is outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, and it will be interesting to see what type of market there is for a 31-year old edge rusher that is still playing at a high level despite battling several serious injuries over the last couple of years. Tampa Bay is bracing to pay JPP over $11 million per season after he recorded 8.5 sacks in 10 games last year while bringing valuable, much-needed leadership to the young Bucs defense.

If Pierre-Paul signs elsewhere, the Bucs are not opposed to re-sign outside linebacker Carl Nassib, who was a team captain last year, if the price is right.

Tampa Bay remains confident that it can re-sign run-stuffing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh to a one-year deal. The Bucs are hoping to come to terms at about $2 million less than the $9.25 million that he was paid in 2019.

Perriman May Struggle To Find A Market

Salary cap website Spotrac recently had Bucs wide receiver Breshad Perriman’s estimated market value at $8.7 million this offseason, and if he can fetch that in free agency the team will let him walk. Tampa Bay doesn’t believe he will command anything close to that for a couple of reasons.

Bucs WR Breshad Perriman – Photo by: Getty Images

First, Perriman has never put together a complete season during his five years in the league. He has yet to hit 700 yards in any season, and he had his first three 100-yard games at the end of the 2019 campaign after signing a one-year, $4 million contract last offseason.

Second, Perriman is hitting free agency in a year where there will be a glut of talented wide receivers in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rookie receivers come much cheaper and they’re younger than Perriman, who will turn 27 in September. This receiver class is so deep that there will be receivers that carry fourth- or fifth-round grades that will go undrafted due to the high volume of pass-catchers in this year’s class.

Perriman may go unsigned during the first week of free agency and may have to settle for a second-tier free agent contract, which could be another one-year, prove-it deal in Tampa Bay or elsewhere.

Expect More 1-Year Deals From The Bucs

The Bucs’ plan in free agency is to settle on a quarterback, and re-sign several of the team’s own free agents. Some of those pending free agents like right tackle Demar Dotson, reserve inside linebacker Kevin Minter and defensive tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches will likely sign cheap, one-year deals because they all want to return to Tampa Bay in 2020.

If any new free agents are added in March, expect them to sign one-year deals, too. That’s what the Bucs did for several players last March, including Barrett, Perriman, Minter, reserve offensive lineman Earl Watford and backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who spent the season on injured reserve. Watford turns 30 in June, and while he knows the system and can play every position from center to left tackle in a pinch, the Bucs may opt to get a bit younger along the offensive line.

Keep an eye on Pittsburgh free agent offensive lineman B.J. Finney, who played in 59 games over the past four years with the Steelers, including 13 starts. A former undrafted free agent, the 6-foot-4, 318-pound Finney can play center or guard and is a few years younger at age 28.

The Bucs may have some interest in former Jets first-round pick linebacker Darron Lee, who was drafted by Bowles in 2017. Lee was traded to Kansas City for a sixth-round pick last fall and didn’t get much playing time during the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run. The 25-year old Lee will be an unrestricted free agent next week.

QB Drew Stanton and Bruce Arians – Photo by: Getty Images

It will be interesting to see not only what Tampa Bay does at the starting quarterback position, but also at the backup spot. Has Gabbert, who has spent two years with Arians, done enough to warrant sticking around on another one-year deal, or does Arians want to sign former Cardinals and Browns quarterback Drew Stanton instead?

The 35-year old Stanton, who was in Cleveland the last two seasons, spent four years in Arizona from 2014-17 with Arians and started 13 games, going 9-4 as a starter while throwing 15 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. While Stanton’s statistics aren’t great, his value could come in being an extra teacher of Arians’ offense to a possible new starting quarterback in Tampa Bay.

Gabbert is five years younger at age 30, and went 2-3 as a starter in his first season with Arians in Arizona in 2017.

Bucs Could Gain Compensatory Picks In 2021

The Buccaneers plan on re-signing the majority of their 19 unrestricted free agents, and the good news is that tactic could help the team gain some compensatory draft picks next year. Tampa Bay gained a fourth-round comp pick in this year’s draft after losing one more player – middle linebacker Kwon Alexander – than it signed in free agency last year.

Re-signing a team’s own players does not count against the club in the league’s compensatory draft pick formula. It only applies to new free agent signings and the team’s own free agents that sign elsewhere.

Bucs OLB Carl Nassib – Photo by: Mary Holts/PR

With the Bucs poised to spend most of their time and resources on re-signing their own players, Tampa Bay could be poised to pick up a compensatory pick or two if the team loses Perriman or Nassib in free agency.

If Winston signs elsewhere and the Bucs add a new quarterback in free agency those moves would likely cancel each other out and the team wouldn’t get a comp pick in that case. The only way Tampa Bay would get a comp pick for losing Winston in free agency is if the team were to trade for a quarterback like Las Vegas’ Derek Carr, or draft a quarterback to start in 2020.

Yet with Arians and Licht in “win now” mode, the Bucs won’t be spending a high draft pick on a quarterback with the intention of starting him this year and developing him with a trial-by-fire approach. Tampa Bay is ramping up for a long-awaited playoff run in 2020 and will use its high draft picks to bolster the running game by selecting a right tackle and running back instead of a new QB.

PR’s Bucs Battle Plan For The 2020 Offseason Series

What does the PewterReport.com staff think the Bucs should do this offseason in free agency and the 2020 NFL Draft? We’ve come up with our own Bucs Battle Plans for the 2020 Offseason in our annual series. Click the links below to see what each Pewter Reporter would do playing the role of Bucs general manager Jason Licht.

Monday: Scott Reynolds’ Bucs Battle Plan

Tuesday: Mark Cook’s Bucs Battle Plan

Wedensday: Jon Ledyard’s Bucs Battle Plan

Thursday: Matt Matera’s Bucs Battle Plan

Coming Friday: Taylor Jenkins’ Bucs Battle Plan