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FAB 1. 5 Things That Will Happen For The Bucs In 2020

I’ll be presenting the Bucs’ 20 Critical Camp Questions (and providing the answers) in next week’s SR’s Fab 5, but before we get to those here are five predictions that I believe will happen that don’t necessarily fit into that format. In Fab 2, I’ll list five things that won’t happen for Tampa Bay in 2020.

Leftwich Will Be A Better Play-Caller

In his first full season as Tampa Bay’s play-caller, Byron Leftwich accomplished quite a bit standing alongside mentor Bruce Arians on the sidelines in 2019. The Buccaneers had the league’s top passing attack in Leftwich’s first season calling plays, as Jameis Winston and Ryan Griffin combined to throw for a league-high 4,845 net passing yards (taking out yardage lost due to sacks) while Winston’s 5,109 yards led all NFL passers.

Tampa Bay also had a pair of 1,000-yard Pro Bowl receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and Leftwich helped guide the league’s fourth-best scoring offense, which racked up franchise-record 28.6 points per game. The Bucs compiled 6,366 yards of total offense last year – an average of 397.9 yards per game – that ranked third in the NFL. That was actually a slight decrease from 2018 when the unit that Todd Monken and Dirk Koetter commanded recorded 6,648 yards of total offense, and also ranked third in the league.

But he learned the strengths and weaknesses of an offensive line that will return four starters, a backfield that will see the return of starting running back Ronald Jones II and third-down back Dare Ogunbowale, a receiving corps that returns Godwin, Evans, Scotty Miller and likely Justin Watson, and a tight end room that will see the return of O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate and Antony Auclair. Leftwich will have to break in new quarterback Tom Brady, tight end Rob Gronkowski and right tackle Tristan Wirfs.

But all other starters return, and that should greatly help Leftwich, who had to learn the intricacies of all 11 starters last year. What also helps is that Brady has 20 years of experience and six Super Bowl titles, and Gronkowski is a pro’s pro with three Super Bowl championships.

Leftwich also got his first taste of dueling with Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans twice in 2019, and will be better prepared to face those NFC South foes this season. That’s important because the Bucs’ first two opponents are against the Saints and the Panthers this year.

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich – Photo by: PewterRerport.com

Whether it is due to familiarity with the starters, familiarity with the NFC South, a year’s worth of experience under his belt or working with a future Hall of Famer like Brady, Leftwich should have a better feel for calling plays and situational football in his second full year on the job. The Bucs might not lead the league in passing this year or be tops among total offense or points per game as they were in 2019, but the goal is to call the right plays at the right time to win games – whether it’s in a 17-14 low-scoring win or a 38-35 shootout victory – not post great statistics.

Brady Will Throw Half The INTs Winston Did

The biggest reason why the Buccaneers decided to part ways with Winston and sign Brady in free agency isn’t just the fact that Brady is the league’s most winning quarterback of all time with 219 regular season victories and also with 30 postseason victories, including six Super Bowl championships. It’s because Winston threw a career-high and NFL-high 30 interceptions last season.

The Bucs were the best team at beating themselves last year, leading the league in penalties and turnovers. Winston was an undeniable culprit with 30 interceptions, including an NFL-record seven pick-sixes, and three fumbles out of the Bucs’ 41 turnovers in 2019.

Brady has done an amazing job of protecting the ball in his career, and has just 29 interceptions over the past four years. Winston has thrown 88 interceptions in his five-year NFL career, while Brady has thrown only 80 interceptions over the last 10 years and no more than 12 in any season, which came in 2011.

Quarterbacks seem to throw a high amount of interceptions in the first season of Bruce Arians’ offense, which features option routes in which the QB and his receivers need to be on the same page when it comes to reading defenses. That was the case with Andrew Luck in Indianapolis in 2012 (18), Carson Palmer in Arizona in 2013 (22) and Winston in Tampa Bay last year (30).

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Former Bucs QB and current Pro Football Talk analyst Chris Simms told me in an interview this offseason that he believes Brady will probably throw more interceptions than he has in several years in his first year in Arians’ vertical passing game.

“I think he might throw more interceptions than Tom Brady usually throws – I do expect that,” Simms said. “That’s okay. Tom throws eight or nine a year, so more interceptions is like 12 or 13 or 14. You can live with that because it’s not going to get to 16 or 17. You can’t have it all, and if you are going to play that style of offense and push the ball down the field then every now and then you’re going to get snakebit and throw a pick or two. But that’s also the greatness of Bruce Arians’ offense because it puts tremendous pressure on the defense and makes you defend the whole field, and that’s a big aspect of it. It might be more interceptions than Tom Brady is used to, but I think that’s healthy, too.

“I don’t think it’s a good thing that Drew Brees throws for 74 percent and two interceptions. I don’t think that’s good. It’s hard to win Super Bowls like that. It’s hard to go 80 yards on 10 plays every drive in the playoffs and the Super Bowl and win that way. At some point you need to make a laser throw down the middle for 30 or 40 yards. Brady will certainly will be able to bring that aspect to the offense.”

Even with as many as 15 interceptions from Brady in 2020 that’s a far cry from Winston’s 30 last year, and certainly hurts the Bucs a lot less. Fewer mistakes from the quarterback position will lead to more wins in Tampa Bay.

The Bucs Will Make The Playoffs In 2020

The addition of Brady and Gronkowski to Arians’ high-powered offense combined with Todd Bowles’ improving, young defense will make the Buccaneers a playoff team in 2020. Tampa Bay has underachieved for years, finishing 5-11 in back-to-back seasons under Dirk Koetter in 2017-18 when the team should have at least been 8-8, and finishing 7-9 last year when the Bucs could have been 9-7 or 10-6.

Bucs defense – Photo by: Getty Images

Arians is right when he said that talent isn’t the issue in Tampa Bay. It’s staying away from turnovers and stopping the egregious amount of penalties. Brady’s experience and steadying presence should help in those areas and that means the Bucs will live up to their potential, which is a 10-6 record in a 2020 season that will be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Not having a mini-camps and OTAs this offseason will stunt the Bucs’ growth on offense as Brady will need some time to mesh with his protections upfront and his receivers on option routes. The growth of Tampa Bay’s young defense will also be stunted a bit as there will be at least five starters that will be entering their first or second season.

Compare that to New Orleans, which has won the NFC South the last two years with a pair of 13-3 records, and the Saints won’t have just two new starters in 2020 – first-round pick Cesar Ruiz, who is expected to start at right guard, and veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Because of the overwhelming amount of veterans who have been in New Orleans for years, expect the Saints to continue their reign as division leaders in 2020 with an 11-5 record.

The Saints will get a head start on retaining their NFC South crown in Week 1 when New Orleans hosts Tampa Bay. SportsBettingDime.com has the opening odds and the Saints are four-point favorites, although most of the current betting action is on the Buccaneers as bettors are taking the four-point spread.

Evans And Godwin Will Each Top 1,000 Yards Again

Evans and Godwin did something that has only been done once before in Tampa Bay, and that is each topping 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. The only other time that has happened in Bucs history is in 2014 when Evans had 68 catches for 1,051 and 12 touchdowns during his rookie season while veteran Vincent Jackson had 70 receptions for 1,002 yards and two scores.

Godwin was the leading receiver in 2019 with 86 catches for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns – all career highs – in 14 games en route to his first Pro Bowl. Evans topped 1,000 yards for the sixth straight year, which tied Randy Moss’ NFL record for most consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards to start a career. Evans, who was voted to his third Pro Bowl, had 67 catches for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns despite missing the last three games with a hamstring injury.

Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Both star receivers have spent a year in Arians’ offense and know the system, and have spent time with Brady this offseason getting the rhythm and timing down at private workouts at Berkeley Prep in Tampa. Getting on the same page with the option routes will be the key between completed passes for big plays and interceptions, so more reps will be needed in training camp to fine tune the chemistry, especially without a preseason this year.

History shows that Brady certainly doesn’t play favorites when it comes to targets. In fact, his favorite receiver is the one who is open. Brady has helped produce multiple pairs of 1,000-yard receivers in New England in years past.

In 2017, Gronkowski and wide receiver Brandin Cooks each topped 1,000 yards. In 2014, Gronkowski had over 1,000 yards, while receivers Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell came close to 1,000 yards as each had more than 950 yards. In 2011, Brady threw for a career-high 5,235 yards, while receiver Wes Welker had 1,569 yards receiving and Gronkowski had 1,327 yards. In 2009, Welker had 1,348 yards while Randy Moss produced 1,264 yards through the air. The previous year, Welker had 1,165 yards while Moss had 1,008 yards. In 2007, Moss’ first year in New England, he led the Patriots with 1,493 yards while Welker had 1,175 yards.

As long as Evans and Godwin play at least 13 games in 2020, they should have no problem repeating last year’s feat and each topping 1,000 yards receiving with Brady under center.

Gay Will Be A Better Kicker In 2020

Tampa Bay kicker Matt Gay had some ups and downs during his rookie season, but should be a much better kicker in 2020. Gay, team’s fifth-round pick last year, finished his first year in the league connecting on 77.1 percent (27-of-35) of his field goals, and 89.6 percent (43-of-48) of his extra points.

Gay actually entered the final game of the season connecting on 84.4 percent of his field goals until three costly misses – all at the south end zone at Raymond James Stadium – spelled doom as Tampa Bay lost to Atlanta in overtime 28-22. Those misses were as notable as his missed 34-yard field goal as time expired against the New York Giants – also in the south end zone at Ray-Jay – in a 32-31 loss in Week 4.

Bucs K Matt Gay – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While those misses were bad, there were plenty of good kicks during Gay’s rookie campaign. In fact, Gay was perfect in 10 games during the 2019 season, and he connected on 80 percent of his field goals against the Giants before his miss.

The Bucs signed Elliot Fry to serve as competition in training camp, but that’s not a sign that the team has lost faith in the strong-legged Gay.

“We need to have competition like we always do with every position,” Arians said at the end of the 2019 season. “He needs to spend all spring kicking in that end zone because when you look at the history of that stadium that’s where most kicks are missed because of the crazy wind across that back side of the stadium. It’s just getting confidence. He missed right. He missed left. Try to hit it harder, so you pull it. For a rookie kicker sometimes, that can get baffling and I think it’s definitely in his head right now – that end zone. The other end zone is no problem.

“It’s been a struggle for him all year, that end. He’ll spend a lot of time next training camp in that end, I can promise you.”