INTRO: It’s that time of year. Time for the NFL regular season to begin. And time for my predictions for the 2024 Bucs and my game-by-game breakdown of Tampa Bay’s wins and losses during the season. I’ll also have my Pewter Predictions for the year in terms of the Bucs’ MVPs as well as award winners and projected Pro Bowlers. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Bucs To Win 10 Games In 2024, Poised For A Big Leap In 2025

In last year’s preseason SR’s Fab 5 where I made my Bucs’ record prediction I said: “The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to do the unthinkable in 2023. They’re actually going to win more games without Tom Brady.”

And that’s exactly what happened. I nailed my 9-8 forecast for the Bucs as Baker Mayfield revived his career in Tampa Bay – even with a rookie play-caller in Dave Canales.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So after winning 10 games last year, including an impressive Wild Card victory at home over the Eagles, what will the Bucs do for an encore in 2024?

Winning another game is a logical step forward for this team. Todd Bowles won eight games in his first season as Tampa Bay’s head coach in 2022 and yet that was good enough to win the NFC South for the second straight time. Last year the team reclaimed the division and posted a winning record with 10 victories.

Ten wins should be the floor for this year’s talented Tampa Bay team, and the ceiling should probably be 12 wins. I think the 2024 Bucs will be a very good team, but not a great team. Not yet.

That comes in 2025, and I’ll have more on that later. Keep reading.

This year’s Tampa Bay squad will have six games against teams that made the playoffs last year and 11 games against teams that didn’t. In those 11 games include all six games against NFC South foes Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans, as none of them made the postseason in 2023.

If the Bucs can 2-4 against the likes of Detroit, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Kansas City, San Francisco and Dallas – all playoff teams in 2023 – and then go 8-3 against the teams that didn’t make the playoffs that gets Tampa Bay 10 wins. And I think that’s exactly how it happens.

I could also see a scenario where a leveled-up Bucs team goes 3-3 against the Lions, Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers and Cowboys and then finishes 7-4 against the other teams. Either way, Tampa Bay seems destined for double-digit wins as long as Bowles’ team stays reasonably healthy.

A 10-7 record should be good enough to win the division for a fourth straight time. The Panthers are still rebuilding and I think the Saints will slide from their 9-8 record last year. As long as they split with the Falcons I think they’ll edge out Atlanta for the NFC South crown.

Going from eight wins to nine wins to 10 victories means Tampa Bay takes another step towards another Super Bowl. The Bucs will actually achieve 11 wins in 2024 thanks to a home win in the Wild Card round. But after that it gets murky.

Could this year’s Tampa Bay team grow and develop enough to advance to the NFC Championship Game and possibly win the Super Bowl? That’s not out of the realm of possibility. But after taking some steps over the last two seasons, the 2025 Bucs seem better positioned to make that leap next year.

Rookies like Graham Barton, Tykee Smith, Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving and Chris Braswell will all have a year’s worth of experience under the belt. And players like Yaya Diaby, Calijah Kancey, Cody Mauch, Cade Otton, Rachaad White and Zyon McCollum should all be even better in 2025.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and assistant GM John Spytek – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

While Tampa Bay will have $29 million in dead cap money due to Shaq Barrett ($17.4 million) and Ryan Jensen ($11.8 million) in 2025, Mike Greenberg can work his cap magic and create more cap room. Plus Jason Licht should have another banner draft class to fortify this team’s talent even more.

Expect another winning season in Tampa Bay for the four-time NFC South champs – with even bigger things on the horizon. The Bucs’ Super Bowl window is officially open and it’s not closing any time soon.

And don’t forget, I thought Tampa Bay wouldn’t win the Super Bowl in 2020 during a COVID-19-ridden season and Tom Brady’s first year in red and pewter. I thought the team’s Super Bowl championship would take place in 2021 – instead of year early. I’m happy to be wrong again.

Now let’s see how the Bucs reach 10 wins in Fab 2.

FAB 2. Picking Tampa Bay’s Wins And Losses Week-By-Week

Week 1 – Tampa Bay vs. Washington – WIN
This feels like a blowout by Tampa Bay or a close Bucs win. That’s not to say that Jayden Daniels and the Commanders can’t come into Raymond James Stadium and escape with a win. But Todd Bowles’ record against rookie quarterbacks is better than you think, and he’s gone up against both Dan Quinn – Washington’s head coach – and Kliff Kingsbury – Washington’s offensive coordinator before so there won’t be too many surprises. Keeping Jayden Daniels in the pocket and making him one-dimensional will be the key for Tampa Bay’s youngish front seven.
BUCS RECORD: 1-0

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and Lions QB Jared Goff – Photo by: USA Today

Week 2 – Tampa Bay at Detroit – LOSS
As great as it would be to see the Bucs get a revenge win in Detroit and possibly start the season 2-0, Jared Goff’s mastery over Todd Bowles and the defense continues for one more game. The Lions have a lot of weapons and Tampa Bay’s pass rush is still finding its footing in 2024. Once again, the Bucs keep it close in the Motor City, but the hometown team prevails in a shootout.
BUCS RECORD: 1-1

Week 3 – Tampa Bay vs. Denver – WIN
The Bucs rebound with another home win against a rookie quarterback – this time Bo Nix. Instead of Tampa Bay’s defense being the headliner, it’s Baker Mayfield and the offense that shine against a very average and unheralded Broncos defense. Mike Evans and Rachaad White both top 100 yards and it feels good to beat Sean Payton. It’s always good to beat Sean Payton, right?
BUCS RECORD: 2-1

Week 4 – Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia – WIN
Devin White returns to Tampa Bay and makes a splash with a big sack against Baker Mayfield on a blitz. But White also gets picked on the running game as the trio of Cody Mauch, Graham Barton and Ben Bredeson take turns driving the former Tampa Bay linebacker out of his gap. This is a close, hard-fought game, but the Bucs come back in the fourth quarter and get the victory to improve to 3-1.
BUCS RECORD: 3-1

Week 5 – Tampa Bay at Atlanta – LOSS

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo by Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay travels to Atlanta on a short week to play the Falcons for the early lead in the NFC South. Raheem Morris’ squad is the current media darling because of Kirk Cousins’ arrival and the Falcons are favored to win the division. Tampa Bay and Atlanta split their games last year and it wouldn’t be surprising to see it happen again in 2024. Give Atlanta round one because it’s a home game.
BUCS RECORD: 3-2

Week 6 – Tampa Bay at New Orleans – WIN
If there is a team that is poised to take a step back in 2024, it could be the Saints. They just don’t seem to have the “it” factor and this is a make-or-break year for head coach Dennis Allen. The Bucs and Saints split the series last year with Tampa Bay getting a convincing road win at NOLA. It won’t be as easy this year, but Baker Mayfield has a big day in the Big Easy as Liam Coen’s offense tops 30 points. With a little more time to repair coming off the mini-bye, the Bucs rebound from the loss at Atlanta and are now 1-1 in the division.
BUCS RECORD: 4-2

Week 7 – Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore – WIN
The Bucs run defense will be tested against the dual threat of Derrick Henry and mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is the best dual-threat QB in the league. Tampa Bay has one of the better run defenses in the league, but keeping Jackson in the pocket can be problematic without rush lane integrity. The Bucs have the firepower on offense to go point for point with the high-scoring Ravens and get a statement win on Monday Night Football.
BUCS RECORD: 5-2

Week 8 – Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta – WIN

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs welcome the Falcons to an orange-clad Raymond James Stadium for the annual throwback creamsicle game. Tampa Bay hasn’t won a game in orange and white since 2009, which was the original throwback game. Will the Bucs be facing Kirk Cousins by this point or rookie Michael Penix Jr? Either way, Cade Otton has a big day and the Bucs have a triumphant fourth quarter to improve to 2-1 in the division and split the series.
BUCS RECORD: 6-2

Week 9 – Tampa Bay at Kansas City – LOSS
Tampa Bay travels to Kansas City for its second Monday Night Football game in one of the most raucous environments in the NFL. Arrowhead Stadium is even rowdier on Monday nights and the crowd noise and Patrick Mahomes will prove to be too much for the Bucs to overcome. The Chiefs halt the Bucs’ winning streak at three games as Mahomes’ mastery in the fourth quarter continues.
BUCS RECORD: 6-3

Week 10 – Tampa Bay vs. San Francisco – LOSS
The Bucs are 0-2 versus the 49ers over the last two years, but welcome San Francisco to Tampa Bay for round three. As disappointing as it was to lose (again) to the Lions in Week 2, it’s just as disappointing (again) to lose to the 49ers for a third straight season. This game is much closer though, and Tampa Bay actually has the lead at one point. But an improved performance in this one gives the Bucs some confidence should the two teams square off again in the NFC playoffs.
BUCS RECORD: 6-4

Week 11 – BYE

Week 12 – Tampa Bay at New York Giants – WIN
The Bucs bounce back from back-to-back losses against last year’s Super Bowl participants with a much-needed victory against a lesser team in the Giants. Tampa Bay’s run game comes back to life after struggling versus the 49ers and helps the team get a road win on cold and blustery day in New Jersey.
BUCS RECORD: 7-4

Week 13 – Tampa Bay at Carolina – WIN

Bucs RB Rachaad White and Panthers DT Derrick Brown – Photo by: USA Today

The Panthers are improved from a year ago, but only slightly. Carolina is still in the running for possibly being the worst team in the NFL again this season. Tampa Bay overwhelms Carolina with talent on the road and takes a commanding 3-1 lead in the NFC South in the process. Not only does Tampa Bay shut down Carolina’s run game, the Bucs running game chews up the Panthers defense. Take that, Dave Canales.
BUCS RECORD: 8-4

Week 14 – Tampa Bay vs. Las Vegas – WIN
Who knows how good – or bad – the Raiders will be this year. Las Vegas is one of those enigma teams in the NFL in 2024. Will Gardner Minshew still be the starting quarterback? Or will it be Aidan O’Connell by December? Minshew helped the Colts steal a win against the Bucs last year and is more formidable than most think. Yet, Tampa Bay has more firepower on offense – and the better quarterback in Baker Mayfield. And that’s enough for a blowout victory at home.
BUCS RECORD: 9-4

Week 15 – Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Chargers – LOSS
The Chargers have a similar vibe to the Raiders. Who know how good – or bad – this AFC West team will be under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh? This one is away from Tampa Bay, which will make it more difficult. Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke will need to really handle Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, who could make life difficult for Baker Mayfield if they don’t. The Bucs see an early lead slip away as Justin Herbert and the Chargers charge back for win at the end and stun Tampa Bay.
BUCS RECORD: 9-5

Week 16 – Tampa Bay at Dallas – LOSS
The Cowboys seem to play well in prime time, and the fact that this game is in Dallas on Sunday Night Football helps the home team. Todd Bowles has had mixed success against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense, which can be quite potent. This one is a close, tough contest, that may go into overtime. A field goal wins it late for Dallas and puts a dent in Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes.
BUCS RECORD: 9-6

Week 17 – Tampa Bay vs. Carolina – WIN

Bucs DT Calijah Kancey and OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by: USA Today

Tampa Bay has clinched the NFC South division with a win against Carolina in each of the last two years. So why would this year be any different? Last year, Tampa Bay prevailed on the road with a 9-0 win at Carolina in Week 18. In 2022, the Bucs beat the Panthers at home to claim the division crown in Week 17. This year it’s just like 2022 with Tampa Bay sweeping an outmatched Carolina team again for a fourth-straight NFC South championship and a fifth straight playoff berth.
BUCS RECORD: 10-6

Week 18 – Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans – LOSS
The Bucs would love to sweep the Saints and enter the playoffs with a two-game winning streak and 11 wins to possibly help out with playoff positioning. But the Saints have other ideas and will be fighting for a Wild Card spot. For some reason, New Orleans plays better in Tampa Bay than it does at home. The Bucs may or may not be resting some starters for the playoffs in Week 18, and that may have an impact in the outcome.
BUCS RECORD: 10-7

PLAYOFFS: The Bucs host a Wild Card playoff game and advance again. But will Tampa Bay make it out the NFC Divisional round and advance to the NFC Championship Game? Or will Todd Bowles’ team stall out on the road in the second round again? We’ll find out in January.

FAB 3. Bucs 2024 Season MVPs

These players will be the best of the Bucs this year. Would any of these choices actually surprise you? Nope.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Offensive MVP – WR Mike Evans
The G.O.A.T. is the G.O.A.T. for a reason. Evans showed last year he’s not slowing down as he turned 30, why should I think he’s going to slow down at age 31? He has tremendous chemistry with Baker Mayfield and is going to top 1,000 yards again and going to get double-digit touchdowns too. Evans has been the engine of the Bucs offense and that’s not going to change in Liam Coen’s offense. Coen’s motto is “players over plays,” and Evans is still the best weapon in Tampa Bay.
 
Defensive MVP – FS Antoine Winfield Jr.
Winfield was the runaway Defensive MVP last year and there’s no reason to think he won’t be again this year. He may not have the Herculean season he had in 2023 statistically speaking, but Winfield is Todd Bowles’ chief chess piece and will make plenty of big plays for the Tampa Bay defense once again. Second-year studs Yaya Diaby and Calijah Kancey will make a push for this award too, but Winfield is so advanced as a play-maker into his fifth season in Tampa Bay.

Special Teams MVP – K Chase McLaughlin
Well, after Jake Camarda’s shaky preseason I’m not about to suggest Camarda for the Special Teams MVP. Especially with the Bucs stashing another punter on the practice squad to take over for Camarda if his underwhelming punts continue. So let’s go with McLaughlin again for the second year. He certainly deserved the distinction a year ago. And I don’t have much faith in Tampa Bay’s return game, which has been stagnant for years. I hope new coordinator Thomas McGaughey can make an improvement there.

FAB 4. Bucs Pewter Predictions – Season Awards

Now that Tampa Bay’s MVPs have been selected, here are my predictions for some other awards for the 2024 season.

Bucs C Graham Barton and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Best Rookie – C Graham Barton
I’ve gone on record saying that Barton will become a Pro Bowl center sooner rather than later. That may not happen during his rookie season, but I’m not going to say it can’t happen, either. Barton’s presence will be felt in the run game as the tip of the spear in Liam Coen’s midzone scheme, but also in pass protection keeping Baker Mayfield’s pocket cleaner than it was last year.

Best Free Agent Acquisition – SS Jordan Whitehead
The Bucs spent the offseason focused on re-signing their own players rather than being active participants in free agency. But filling the hole at left guard was a big priority and Ben Bredeson has been a pleasant surprise so far for the team. Yet it’s Whitehead who will have the biggest impact. His return to Tampa Bay’s secondary should help communication on the back end of the defense and his hard-hitting playing style should help set the tone.

Most Improved Offensive Player – RT Luke Goedeke
It would be easy to put right guard Cody Mauch in this spot because he stands to make the biggest leap from his rookie season to his second year in Tamp Bay. Second-year running back Sean Tucker has also shown improvement from a year ago. But Goedeke seems ready to take his play to a whole new level going from good last year to possibly great this season. Not necessarily Tristan Wirfs-level greatness, but showing some future Pro Bowl potential.

Most Improved Defensive Player – CB Zyon McCollum
Last year I said Antoine Winfield Jr. and I nailed it. Winfield leveled up all the way to All-Pro in 2023 and became the highest paid defensive back in NFL history after having a season for the ages. This year I’m buying into the McCollum hype. In his first full season as a named starter – not a replacement starter – he goes from being a solid cornerback to becoming a playmaking cornerback.

FAB 5. Pewter Predictions – Tampa Bay’s Stats Leaders

Now that I’ve dished out some awards, let’s make one final round of pewter predictions for Tampa Bay’s 2024 season.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

Leading Receiver – WR Mike Evans
Last year I said Chris Godwin, and former offensive coordinator Dave Canales screwed me by taking Godwin out of the slot where he would’ve received more targets. Lesson learned. Yet even though Godwin will return to the slot and get more opportunities I’m going with Evans, who has an uncanny rapport with Baker Mayfield. Mayfield learned last year when it doubt go to the 6-foot-5 future Hall of Famer. That won’t change this year despite a new offensive coordinator.

Leading Rusher – RB Rachaad White
Yes, Bucky Irving will cut into White’s carries this year. Yes, Sean Tucker will too, as he’s also earned some touches. But expect White to do more with fewer carries. Liam Coen’s new offensive scheme and Kevin Carberry’s improved and revamped offensive line should boost White from 3.7 yards per carry to well over 4.0 yards per carry and he’ll even top 1,000 yards, as Tampa Bay’s ground game improves from worst in the league to middle of the pack.

Leading Sacker – OLB Yaya Diaby
Heading into training camp I was prepared to say defensive tackle Calijah Kancey due to his cat-like quickness. But after seeing Diaby dominate the first week and a half of training camp until he sprained his ankle I have to go with Sub Zero instead. I think Diaby hits nine sacks this year – maybe even 10 – to lead Tampa Bay.

Bucs FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: USA Today

Leading Interceptor – S Antoine Winfield Jr.
I wisely said Antoine Winfield Jr. last year and he did lead the Bucs with three picks. Cornerback Zyon McCollum said he’s going to be the leader this year with six interceptions. I’ll believe it when I see it. Sticking with the All-Pro safety, who dropped a couple of INTs last year, seems like the safer bet.

Pro Bowlers – LT Tristan Wirfs, WR Mike Evans, S Antoine Winfield Jr., OLB Yaya Diaby and DT Vita Vea
In case you missed this week’s PR Roundtable I said Tampa Bay will have five Pro Bowlers this year. That’s probably a little high in hindsight, as Tampa Bay always seems to have players snubbed, such as Wirfs and Tom Brady in 2020 and Winfield last year. And let’s not forget the fact that the Super Bowl champion Bucs only had one Pro Bowler in 2020 – outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul. But this year Wirfs and Evans make it again and are joined by Winfield and Vea, who each went to the Pro Bowl in 2021, along with Diaby, who makes his first Pro Bowl berth.