At this time last year, the Bucs were in the midst of a late-season turnaround that saw them go on to claim a third straight NFC South title, beating out the Saints and Falcons once again. There are still four weeks to go in the 2024 season, but the feeling right now – almost a year to the day that Tampa Bay beat Atlanta to claim a share of the division lead – is feeling awfully familiar.

Given their back-to-back wins in Weeks 12 and 13 and the Falcons dropping their last three games, the Bucs had to feel good about their chances of creating some movement in the NFC South race heading into Sunday. After all, they had a home game against the 2-10 Raiders, and the Falcons were on the road against the 10-2 Vikings.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by: USA Today

Sure enough, Tampa Bay took advantage of the opportunity. It wasn’t pretty, but two fourth-quarter touchdowns gave the Bucs enough separation to beat the Raiders 28-13. The win marked three straight for Todd Bowles and his team, who got above the .500 mark for the first time since late October.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, the Falcons were torn apart by Sam Darnold and the Vikings offense. Though Atlanta tied the game at 21 late in the third quarter, the Minnesota offense proved to be too much, scoring the game’s final 21 points to win 42-21 and send Raheem Morris’ team to its fourth straight loss. Darnold threw for 347 yards and five touchdowns on the day, while Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions against his former team.

So, with the Bucs’ win and the Falcons’ loss, there’s a new leader in the NFC South. The three-time defending champions are on top again with four games left in the season.

Here’s an updated look at the NFC South standings through Week 14:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (2-2 in the NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons 6-7 (4-1 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints 5-8 (2-3 in the NFC South)
Carolina Panthers 3-10 (1-3 in the NFC South)

It needs to be said again and again that because Atlanta swept Tampa Bay in the two head-to-head meetings, Tampa Bay needs to finish with a better record than Atlanta to win the division for a fourth straight year. Because in that scenario, there’s obviously no need for a tiebreaker. The Bucs have a tougher task ahead of them in Week 15, heading west to face the 8-5 Chargers. The Falcons will be out west themselves, though they’ll square off with the 2-11 Raiders and Desmond Ridder – Atlanta’s former quarterback.

Bucs LB Lavonte David – Photo by: USA Today

Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the top two contenders in the NFC South:

Week 15: Bucs – at Chargers (8-5); Falcons – at Raiders (2-11)
Week 16: Bucs – at Cowboys (5-7); Falcons – vs. Giants (2-11)
Week 17: Bucs – vs. Panthers (3-10); Falcons – at Commanders (8-5)
Week 18: Bucs – vs. Saints (5-8); Falcons – vs. Panthers (3-10)

So, as much as Tampa Bay may have gone into Week 14 favored to come out of it as the NFC South leaders, the odds will favor Atlanta to take the lead right back in Week 15.

There may still be ups and downs to be had throughout the rest of December and into January, but for now, the Bucs will go about their business and try to defend their division lead. As it stands, they control their own destiny the rest of the way.

Where The Bucs Now Stand In The NFC Playoff Picture

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

With the Bucs now in sole possession of the NFC South lead, they currently hold the No. 4 seed in the NFC. If they can close out the division and four-peat, they’ll host a home playoff game. While that’s still far into the future and far from a certainty, why not look at how the rest of the field looks after Week 14?

The Lions beat the Packers on Thursday Night Football to retain and expand their lead in the NFC North. That also kept the Eagles at bay, as Philadelphia beat Carolina to get to 11-2 and keep pace with Detroit. Considering the records of the NFC’s top two seeds, the highest Tampa Bay can realistically rise at this point is the No. 3 seed.

The No. 3 seed currently belongs to the Seahawks, who beat the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Seattle is one game ahead of Tampa Bay, though a difficult matchup awaits both the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds, whoever they may end up being.

The No. 4 seed will host the No. 5 seed on Super Wild Card Weekend, and right now, that matchup would feature the 7-6 Bucs at home against the 11-2 Vikings. The No. 3 seed will host the No. 6 seed, so that matchup as it currently stands would be the 8-5 Seahawks hosting the 9-4 Packers. Coincidentally enough, those two teams meet on Sunday Night Football in Week 15.

Here’s a look at the NFC Playoff Picture through Week 14:

1. Lions – 12-1 (NFC North leader)
2. Eagles – 11-2 (NFC East leader)
3. Seahawks – 8-5 (NFC West leader)
4. Bucs – 7-6 (NFC South leader)
5. Vikings – 11-2 (NFC Wild Card No. 1)
6. Packers – 9-4 (NFC Wild Card No. 2)
7. Commanders – 8-5 (NFC Wild Card No. 3)
——–In the Hunt——–
8. Rams – 7-6
9. Falcons – 6-7
10. Cardinals – 6-7
11. 49ers – 6-7
12. Cowboys – 5-7

NFL.com currently gives the Bucs a 72% chance to reach the postseason.

Tampa Bay is eyeing a fourth straight NFC South title and a fifth consecutive playoff appearance. There’s plenty of work left to be done and next week’s matchup with Los Angeles is going to be a challenge. But after a four-game skid heading into the bye, the Bucs have done well to win three straight and reclaim the division lead heading into the season’s closing stretch.