The NFC South has been widely known as the worst division in football over past the couple of years. The Bucs have been the beneficiaries of that in a quite a few seasons. They did not reach their goal of making the postseason once again, but Tampa Bay’s 8-9 record was tied with the Panthers and Falcons at the top of the division, with Carolina getting in due to a tie breaker.

It just shows that as bad as the Bucs can be, they’ll still be in the playoff race going into this season because of the futility of the other teams in the division. Are there higher hopes for Tampa Bay and the rest of the division heading into this season? Not so much. According to Zachary Pereles of CBS Sports, the good news is that the Bucs are the favorite to be the champions of the NFC South, but the bad news is that nobody in the division will have more than nine wins.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Pereles’ article brings up a couple of predictions this season with the schedule out, deciding if these topics are a reality or an overreaction. Here’s what he said about the NFC South:

The NFC South winner will finish with 10 or fewer wins

VERDICT: REALITY

“For four straight years, the NFC South has failed to produce a team with more than 10 wins; the last one was Tom Brady’s Buccaneers in 2021. That streak will run to five years.”

“Part of that is the projected similarity of the teams. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Buccaneers’ O/U is 8.5 wins, the Saints and Panthers are at 7.5, and the Falcons are at 6.5. There will be some sort of all four teams beating each other up: The Buccaneers are no longer a clear cut above, as last season showed, the Panthers made some big moves, the Falcons still have lots of offensive talent and some intriguing young pieces on defense, and the Saints are a low-key dark horse to win the division.”

How Much Better Did The Bucs And The NFC South Get?

It’s a tough look that the last team in the division to get more than 10 wins on the year was five seasons ago. The Bucs reaching 10 during the 2024 at the time felt slightly underwhelming with how good they could’ve but not looks almost monumental with how bad the division is.

And despite an 8-9 record a season ago, the Bucs are still the favorite. Why? Because on paper they have the most talent. If offensive coordinator Zac Robinson can bring to Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s offense what Liam Coen did two seasons ago, that’ll make them competitive against anyone, including the best of the best.

Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

With the players that the Bucs have brought in on defense, whether that was signing Alex Anzalaone or drafting Rueben Bain Jr. and Joisah Trotter, head coach and defensive play caller Todd Bowles will have no excuses not to get the job done. The defense doesn’t ahve to be great, they just have to be average to good in order for this team to win more games.

With that said, the Panthers and Saints have improved, too. Carolina focused a lot on the defensive side in free agency by signing inside linebacker Devin Lloyd and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips. Lloyd was considered the best inside linebacker on the market. Whether they will be fits in Carolina remains to be seen. The Panthers then focused on the trenches in the draft, selecting offensive tackle Monroe Freeling in the first round, defensive tackle Lee Hunter in the second, and picking up Sam Hecht in the fifth. They also drafted receiver Chris Brazzell II to compliment rookie of the year Tetairoa McMillan.

The Saints certainly stood out in free agency looking to build around quarterback Tyler Shough. Their big move was signing running back Travis Etienne Jr. along with offensive guard David Edwards and tight end Noah Fant. They became more of a threat in the draft by taking wide receiver Jordan Tyson in round one and tight end Oscar Delp in round three. New Orleans got faster and have way more skill players to work with this season.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and Saints QB Tyler Shough – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The one team that didn’t stand out this offseason was the Falcons. It appears they don’t even know who their quarterback is going to be as their big offseason signing was Tua Tagovailoa. Is there a quarterback competition with him and Michale Penix Jr.? Atlanta’s draft left more to be desired as well. They didn’t have a first round pick, so their second round pick and first by the team was corner Avieon Terrell, who gets to play with his brother, A.J. The receiver they drafted was Zachariah Branch, who didn’t impress as much as Brazzell or Ted Hurst of the Bucs, with each player being taken in the third round.

It’s fair to say the competition is more fierce in the NFC South going into the 2026 division. Just how good the Bucs or anyone will be has yet to be determined, but onlookers don’t believe it’s going to be anything to write home about.

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