Everything the Bucs have been building in recent years hinges on what happens this fall.

On paper, the Bucs once again have the most talented roster in the NFC South. That is why missing the playoffs for a second straight year would represent a massive disappointment. Even if they make the postseason, annual appearances lose their luster when all they lead to is a first-round exit. The alternative is tearing it down to the studs, but another decade of darkness is not what anyone wants to experience again.

So, how might things play out this season?

What would be the best- and worst-case outcomes? That is something CBS’ Sports Tyler Sullivan recently analyzed for each NFL team just over two months away from the regular season kicking off.

The Best-Case Scenario For The Bucs Is Not Far Fetched, At All

Looking at the Bucs with a glass-half full approach, Tyler Sullivan detailed how good the team has a chance to be. It will require immediate contributions from Tampa Bay’s rookie class and meaningful production from its free agent additions.

Bucs edge Rueben Bain Jr., GM Jason Licht and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch P/R

Best-case: Following an 8-9 season that saw Tampa Bay’s five-season playoff streak and four straight division titles come to an end, the Buccaneers get back on track. Even with Mike Evans gone, the passing game spearheaded by Baker Mayfield is strong, especially with Emeka Egbuka making a Year 2 leap for the ages. He becomes the new go-to weapon on offense, while rookie pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and rookie linebacker Josiah Trotter help usher in a new era on defense. Tampa Bay takes back the NFC South and returns to the playoffs.

While Sullivan provides some analysis here, Pewter Report dived even further into the topic when defining what underachieving, achieving, and overachieving could look like for the team in 2026. None of Sullivan’s projections feel far-fetched.

Regardless of the headlines surrounding quarterback Baker Mayfield’s future, the present has enough questions of its own. It helps the offense’s prospects that the unit added offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Robinson’s familiarity with Mayfield, combined with his experience maximizing playmakers in Atlanta, should help Tampa Bay get the most out of its offense.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Tampa Bay’s young core is filled with players ready to prove they are key pieces to build around for the future. That includes Egbuka putting together a full year of high-end production, picking up from where he left off during an electric first half last season. Bain and Trotter might be rookies, but each project to be a starter at a critical point of weakness for the defense in recent years.

If everyone listed – and several others – take a step forward, Tampa Bay’s ceiling is even higher than Sullivan outlines.

Meeting expectations would be getting to 10 wins and making the playoffs, but the most favorable outcome is eclipsing the 10-win threshold and winning a playoff game. As currently constructed, Tampa Bay still has ground to make up on several of the NFC’s top contenders, including the Rams, 49ers, Packers and Seahawks. That keeps them from taking over the conference right now, but they can begin vying for it again if they can get back on a positive trajectory.

If Bucs Bottom Out, There Will Be Significant Changes And Hard Decisions

There is a reason why the Bucs are not being viewed through a fully optimistic lens. What occurred from last November to this January was a brutal, two-month span in Tampa Bay. Everyone remembers the 2-6 finish. It was not just that Tampa Bay lost; it was how it lost.

Losing four consecutive games that were very winnable put head coach Todd Bowles on the ropes, and both sides of the football struggled. Bowles entered the offseason facing the most scrutiny of his Tampa Bay tenure after a collapse that cost the team both the division and its playoff streak. The aftermath was him having to fire several tenured defensive coaches and offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard.

A repeat of that would be a worse-case scenario for him and everyone else, as Tyler Sullivan details.

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Worst-case: The second-half struggles from Baker Mayfield (14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over his final 11 games in 2025) persist in 2026. The young pieces the Buccaneers were hoping would rise up – like Egbuka and Bain Jr. – aren’t ready for that responsibility just yet. That allows the rest of the division to continue closing the gap, with Atlanta and New Orleans both catching lightning in a bottle in their respective quarterback rooms. For the second straight year, the Bucs miss the playoffs, putting Todd Bowles’ job firmly at risk.

Mayfield did not play the second half of the year at 100%, as Netflix’s Quarterback season three trailer alluded to. That will make for an interesting, behind-the-scenes watch, but as the injuries piled up, the “Mayfield Magic” disappeared. Another year of struggles from the 31-year-old would make his contract negotiations trickier and likely lead to the franchise tag being placed on him for the 2027 season. Although the team’s promising contributors have more runway, it would not be a good sign if none of them emerge as stars.

Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Cliff Welch/PR

Although the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers have their own question marks, all it takes is one of those teams to outplay expectations. Carolina proved that last season by winning the division with an 8-9 record. Dave Canales’ squad went on to add pieces, and New Orleans has an offense that now has plenty of weapons after the 2026 NFL Draft. Atlanta has to work through its quarterback competition, but there is a reason the games are played.

Should the Bucs lean closer to a doomsday scenario, that all but means Bowles would be gone, one way or the other. That may mean retirement, or a mutual parting of ways. The 2025 season was the wake-up call, if 2026 is the same story, it will have a different ending.

Every season is important, but 2026 has the makings of a defining year for Tampa Bay. Whether this core gets another chance together or the organization charts a new direction will likely be decided over the next six months.

Watch Our Recent Pewter Report Podcast About Bucs’ 2026 Expectations

Recently, Pewter Report discussed more about what the Bucs season could look like if they underachieve, achieve, and overachieve on expectations. Considering this story’s premise, Matt Matera and I analyzed what this year signifies for the team. Check it out by clicking this link or watching it below: