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In the NFL, Cover 4 refers to a defensive coverage that aims to cover four deep zones on the field. Following that lead, I’m going to provide you with the same coverage of the Bucs – your favorite football team. Each Wednesday morning I’ll cover four areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a short film breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a look forward at what’s to come, and 4. a bit of fun.

Film: Is The Bucs Offensive Line Playing Poorly?

Part of the narrative surrounding the Bucs offensive inconsistency to start the season has centered on the offensive line. Baker Mayfield has had to scramble and navigate pressure far too often to get into a rhythm and be the engine of a points-scoring machine. After watching the tape, I want to talk about what is fact and what is fiction.

Let’s start with how often Mayfield has been pressured. Sumer Sports has him as the 16th-most pressured quarterback in the league (minimum of 50 dropbacks) at 39.5%. Pro Football Focus is more kind to the Bucs pass protection, ranking Mayfield as the 23rd-most pressured quarterback at 32.5% of his dropbacks. That leads to the evaluations of the offensive line from public sites.

Bucs Ol Data

Right off the bat let’s acknowledge something that Bucs fans have been hoping for – and starting to doubt – for a long time. Graham Barton is ascending into the center the team thought he could be when they drafted him in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Offensive line guru Brandon Thorn put together a great cutup on Barton’s Week 1 against Dexter Lawrence last week.

Beyond that, the picture painted here is of a tackle duo that has been good, but not great, and a guard duo that is struggling. In my opinion, there is truth to that picture. But the tackle picture is improving. After an uncharacteristically average open to the season, Tristan Wirfs was back to his Super Saiyan self. Again, I’ll defer to Thorn who got to cutups before me.

If Barton is leveling up, Goedeke has been good and Wirfs is trending back to stellar, that closes the gap on what the issues are. Those major issues are three-fold.

1. RG Cody Mauch’s Return From Injury Requires A Ramp-Up

There was an over-zealousness to our collective assumption (and yes, I am 100% a part of this problem) that the line being healthy would just pick up where they left off at the end of 2024. Mauch missed all but two games last year due to a torn meniscus. He is still learning to trust that knee and the results have been extremely volatile. There are high-end reps.

But some low-end ones as well.

This is reminiscent of his first two years in the league where there was high variance. Mauch’s ceiling remains quite high, it’s just finding a more consistent product that’s important. His recovery skills and quick feet allow him to make some highlight-reel plays. He can be special when he is in space, covering ground and redirecting at a level few offensive linemen can match. But having the foresight to pick up stunts and loops, passing rushers off and handling players with advanced hand technique are still opportunities for him to improve.

2. The Bucs Have A T-E Stunt Problem

You could see in one of the clips above that Mauch struggled picking up a stunt. That issue isn’t isolated to just Mauch. On the left side of the line Ben Bredeson and Wirfs have seen similar troubles with stunts.

Is it a communication issue? On some of these reps it appears one half of the combo is looking to carry his man while the other is trying to pass off. Could it be width/depth issues making it difficult for the two players to pass off those games like they have in the past? To be honest, that is beyond my current knowledge of the game.

The issue is there. I don’t have a recommendation for the solution. The good news is that it’s flaring up on tape, so I’m confident it will be a point of emphasis to fix in practice.

3. LG Ben Bredeson Has Been Bad

This is the one prong of the issues that doesn’t have a clear answer, while also being the most disappointing. Ben Bredeson was a sneaky awesome signing in 2024, when the Bucs secured a solid starter for near league-minimum. The team rewarded Bredeson with a three-year contract at low-end starter money. He was fantastic to start last season and prior to a week 14 injury that knocked him out for the rest of the season he had perhaps his best season as a pro as a pass protector.

Bucs Qb Baker Mayfield And Rg Ben Bredeson

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and RG Ben Bredeson – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

I profiled Bredeson in the offseason, hopeful for a strong 2026. But thus far he has looked like a disaster. He is losing to power, getting bullied back into Baker Mayfield’s lap. He is losing to speed, letting tackles cross his face and penetrate to his outside. He’s struggling on the stunts mentioned above. It’s been a tough two weeks for Bredeson. And the Bucs don’t have a great option behind him if he can’t figure it out.

Cody Mauch should improve with additional reps. The stunt issue should improve as they focus on it. Can Bredeson improve? He’s been better in Tampa Bay. The team needs to get him back to his previous level which will give the offense a higher ceiling.

Finance: Getting Out Of The Baker Mayfield Contract

Let me start this section off with two big caveats.

First, the Bucs are not considering this action after two weeks into the 2026 season. Second, I am not an advocate of this thinking after two weeks, either.

With that said, anything that helps me further the public understanding of cap and cash as it pertains to NFL contracts is an avenue I will readily take. It’s all in the service of education! Now with that out of the way, Bucs fans have asked me when is the earliest Tampa Bay can get out of the Mayfield contract if the team has buyer’s remorse.

Let’s take a look:

What Happens If The Bucs Cut Bait In 2027?

Baker Mayfield’s 2027 salary is fully guaranteed. Mayfield’s $50 million salary in 2027 is fully guaranteed. That means the Buccaneers are committed for the cash even if they cut Mayfield. For a team that spends just a bit over the cap each year in cash, that means the team would be punting about 15% of their cash paying a player not to play. Beyond that, they would need to make the decision before the fifth day of the 2027 league year as it pertains to 2028.

After that, $20 million of his 2028 salary would become fully guaranteed. But if they were to do that…

Bucs Qb Baker Mayfield And Browns Ilb Carson Schwesinger

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Browns ILB Carson Schwesinger – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

From a cap perspective they would have to designate Mayfield a post-June 1 cut while converting his roster bonus to a prorated bonus. That would make his cap hit in 2027 $26.795 million – all of which would be dead cap. The post-June 1 designation would let the team push the majority of his dead cap, $68.315 million, to 2028.

That’s a massive dead cap charge for the team to absorb. Over the two years it would total $95.110 million.

They could do it. And it wouldn’t be the largest dead cap hit a team has ever absorbed. It’s becoming more routine these days after the Broncos did it with Russell Wilson, the Falcons did it with Kirk Cousins, the Cardinals did it with Kyler Murray and the Dolphins did it with Tua Tagovailoa. But it’s still extremely out of character for the Buccaneers.

What If The Bucs Wait Until 2028?

This is a much more palatable path. And it highlights the significance of assistant general manager Mike Greenberg holding firm on the guarantees and structure of the deal. Holding on to Baker Mayfield in 2027 does guarantee $20 million of his 2028 salary, but that would leave $30 million non-guaranteed. There would once again be a time-sensitivity to the decision. That $30 million in non-guaranteed salary becomes guaranteed on the fifth day of the league year.

The dead cap charges in a move like this would most likely come to $45.445 million in 2028 and $42.87 million in 2029 for a grand total of $88.315 million. Still large, but more evened out over two years – 2028 and 2029 – and more palatable.

The Real Exit Date Is 2029

I’ll revisit my initial assertion here. The Bucs aren’t thinking about cutting Baker Mayfield. Nor will they really entertain such a decision until 2028 at the earliest. Technically speaking, Mayfield won’t enter the start of his extension until next year. And while it is a three-year addition on paper, with no guaranteed money in 2029 that year effectively becomes a team option.

If the Bucs decide to walk away from Mayfield in 2029, most importantly it means they won’t owe him any additional cash. As for the cap, they would once again post June-1 release of him and incur a $29.392 million dead cap charge in 2029 and $52.366 million charge in 2030. That’s $81.758 million in total over the two years.

The Bucs committed to Mayfield. Two weeks of volatile play is not changing their minds on who he is and who he can be. I still maintain letting him play out 2026 before signing him to an extension was probably the best move from the team perspective, but the deal they got him on was team-friendly from a structure standpoint.

Forecast: Ted Hurst III Will Continue to Gain Snap And Target Share

With Jalen McMillan limited to just seven snaps through the first two games, the Bucs have relied on their depth receivers to log meaningful snaps. Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin Jr. are tied for the room lead at 105 snaps each. But close to them is rookie Ted Hurst III with 91 snaps. Part of that is offensive coordinator Zac Robinson running 11 personnel at a league-high rate. Part of that is also Hurst providing a coveted skillset. His size/speed combination make him a natural fit for the X position.

Beyond the snap count, Hurst is earning targets. His 10 targets are just one behind the team lead. And his 17.9% target share rate is second among all non-running backs. Hurst provides a downfield threat, a physical frame who can muscle through jams at the line, and a strong blocking presence who can be additive to the run game.

Bucs Wr Ted Hurst Iii

Bucs WR Ted Hurst III – Photo by: IMAGN Images via Reuters Connect

The Bucs are already starting to count on him in the run game. He was asked to perform a counter pull from a condensed look and he delivered a key block on Bucky Irving’s 38-yard run early against the Browns. Those reps will earn him more playing time. His ability to play the X will earn him more reps. Hurst’s average yards per target and tight window rate are both second on the team.

All of this to say that he will continue to get a solid number of snaps, even with McMillan returning to the lineup. And don’t be surprised if by the end of the year he is consistently logging a top-2 or top-3 snap count among the receivers.

Fun Fourth Down: Congrats, Tampa Bay Rays

Yes, we cover the Bucs and football. But there is quite a bit of overlap between Bucs fans and Rays fans. Therefore, it bears acknowledging that the future neighbors of the Bucs are the AL East Champions. Now consider BetMGM had the Rays with the longest odds of winning the division prior to the season. And it wasn’t close.

Yankees +180
Blue Jays +260
Red Sox +300
Orioles +425
…
…
…
…
Rays +2500

Clinching with four games left in the season while holding a 5.0 game lead over the Yankees is an incredible feat for a team that seemingly has all the best vibes right now.

The Trop and the Rays will forever hold a special place in my heart. Baseball was my first love. And I have been fortunate enough to have been present for some of the biggest highlights in Rays history until I moved out of the area in 2009. I wanted to share some of those moments with you.

March 31, 1998

At 11 years old, baseball was my world. From 1990 to 1993 I was a diehard Braves fan. Growing up in Hillsborough County, Atlanta was the closest team to where I lived. So I naturally became a fan of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery and John Smoltz, along with the Crime Dog, Fred McGriff. In 1994 my allegiances changed to the Florida Marlins, as I felt a connection with a team from my home state.

And just five months after watching Al Leiter, Kevin Brown, Livan Hernandez and Cliff Floyd lead the Marlins to a World Series victory over the New York Yankees, I shed my allegiances for the team from Miami for a true hometown team. There was no way I was going to miss the first game in Devil Rays history. Despite the loss, it was such a phenomenal moment to be a part of.

August 7, 1999

In early July my grandfather let me know he had got tickets for him, myself and my grandmother tickets for a Devil Rays game around the time I was headed back to school from summer break. Much of the love I developed for the game of baseball came from my grandfather. He was one of the founders and the third president of East Bay Little League in Gibsonton, FL. That league is where I grew up playing ball. It’s where a field is now named after him.

Any time I got to share the game of baseball with him was an experience I cherished. So, getting to go see a pro game with him was exciting. That was the summer Wade Boggs was chasing 3,000. Never in a million years would I have thought I would witness history. Boggs entered that game needing three hits to reach the prolific milestone. I remember screaming my head off as he hit an RBI single in the third inning. I found a decibel level I previously didn’t know I had in the fourth when he connected for another base hit.

Wade Boggs

Former Rays star Wade Boggs

Watching from our seats down the first base line, Boggs approached the plate in the sixth needing just one more hit to reach that hallowed club. Then on a 2-2 pitch Boggs sailed a crack just over the right field wall. Watching him trot around the bases, presciently taking in the moment and pointing to the sky in honor of his late mother, it was an incredible moment to be a part of.

And to share it with my Pawpaw made it all the more special. It didn’t matter that the Devil Rays lost the game. It didn’t matter that the team was bad. It was an historic moment. And I was there. Later that season I caught another game. I had no clue at the time, but it was the game where the team celebrated Boggs’ 3,000th. That was a cool bit of serendipity as well.

September 20, 2008

I took my now-wife, then girlfriend along with a friend to see the Rays play the Minnesota Twins. That season felt magical (more on that later) and so many players from that squad hold a special place in my memories. Sitting in the left field stands I watched as Scott Kazmir went six innings (a feat for him!) while striking out five with his devastating slider.

Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell – the Rays’ version of “Thunder and Lightning” due to their velocity disparity worked through the seventh and eighth innings without giving up any runs. Troy Percival came in to finish the game, but got into some trouble, giving way for Trever Miller to close it out. The Rays won 7-2.

What made this game special? That game clinched the playoffs for the Rays for the first time in franchise history.

October 3, 2008 and October 23, 2008

I am putting these together in the interest of brevity since I am approaching 3,000 words right now. I’ll start with October 3. The elation of being present for the playoff clincher spurred me to get playoff tickets. While I couldn’t secure tickets to Game 1 of the ALDS against the White Sox, I was able to get tickets to Game 2.

That Friday afternoon I watched Kazmir dance in and out of trouble as he struggled to maintain the strike zone. It was especially nerve-racking for me because the Texas lefty was one of my favorite players. I loved playing MLB The Show and pitching with him, back-dooring his slider on righties and watching lefties chase it out of the zone. He was able to make it one out into the sixth as I drove my girlfriend crazy, predicting each pitch before it was thrown.

That game had everything a baseball purist could dream of offensively. B.J. Upton racing around the bases for a triple. Carl Crawford steal second base and Akinori Iwamura hitting a home run! But that wouldn’t be the last game I watched that season due to an innocuous wager I made in June of that year.

At the time I worked as an assistant manager at a shoe store in Brandon Town Center while going to USF for my undergraduate degree. Our company had just installed a new manager ready program, and I called up my regional training manager and told him I wanted to be the first person to graduate the program. He agreed to come up from Miami for some in-person training.

At the time (early June) both the Rays and Marlins were doing surprisingly well. I made the off-handed comment to my RTM, who was a huge baseball and Marlins fan, “If the Rays make the World Series, I will get us tickets.” He agreed in kind if the Marlins made it.

Aki Iwamura

Former Rays second baseman Aki Iwamura – Photo by: USA Today via Reuters Connect

Can you imagine my reaction when Iwamura jumped on second base to close out Game 7 of the ALCS? I’ll tell you exactly what my reaction was as a broke college student paying his own way through school. I jumped off my couch screaming, “YES! … F*CK!!!!”

Just a couple of days later I was in an online queue to purchase tickets. Once again, I couldn’t get tickets for Game 1, and settled for Game 2. I had to open a new credit card just to be able to afford three tickets (of course my now-wife Jamie was not going to let me take a work colleague without taking her). After securing the tickets I called my RTM. He picked up the phone without a “Hi,” or a “How are you?”

The first words out of his mouth were, “You didn’t, did you?!”

“Alex, I’m going to need you to pick me up from work on Thursday so we can go to a World Series game, buddy.”

Alex, Jamie and I had a memorable evening. Alex bought all of the food and drinks. Our seats were offset from the rest of our row down the left field line, with a wall directly behind us. We felt like we had our own private section. The Phillies had won game one. But “Big Game” James Shields was on that night, dodging nine base runners over 5+ innings, saving his best pitches for when he needed them.

I wish I remembered more specific details, but the night was surreal. I do recall the Rays going up early and me playfully taunting a nice couple from Philly. I remember the bullpen shaking down the stretch, but the Rays ultimately held out for a 4-2 win for their first World Series win in franchise history.

June 15, 2013

Rays fans will know this as the date “Cobber” (Alex Cobb), took the header on the line drive comeback. It was a scary moment. The entire stadium went quiet. I don’t include this date because of that harrowing event. I include it for what happened prior to the game. My best friend Jonathan, and his now-wife, Betina, made Tropicana Field history.

Josh

Screenshot

They became the first couple to ever get married at the Trop. In a casual ceremony on a late Sunday morning, I had the great pleasure of officiating their nuptials after their minister dropped out just two days before the big date. Thank goodness for the Universal Life Church, who provided me with my online ordainment.

Being a part of that moment, for the man I have been best friends with since we were 10 years old, was a memory of a lifetime. To do it at a stadium where I had so many other memorable moments, sharing that experience with those two people who were, and still remain, so in love. Sharing it with my own wife and my young son. It trounced the World Series easily.

The Rays organization has been such a big part of my life.

Go get ’em guys. Hope you win it all this year.

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Joshua Queipo

Josh Queipo joined the Pewter Report team in 2022, specializing in salary cap analysis and film study. In addition to his official role with the website and podcast, he has an unofficial role as the Pewter Report team’s beaming light of positivity and jokes. A staunch proponent of the forward pass, he is a father to two amazing children and loves sushi, brisket, steak and bacon, though the order changes depending on the day. He graduated from the University of South Florida in 2008 with a degree in finance.

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